Super Sunday sees Liverpool take on Manchester United and Tom Carnduff picks out his three best bets to back, with prices ranging from 2/1 to 18/1.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Mohamed Salah to score anytime at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Bruno Fernandes to be shown a card at 18/5 (Unibet)
0.5pt Trent Alexander-Arnold to score anytime at 18/1 (Unibet)
The highlight of the Premier League weekend gets the prime spot. Liverpool welcome rivals Manchester United on Sunday with both sides knowing how significant victory could be on their respective seasons.
Jurgen Klopp's Reds have endured a campaign that is well below their usual standards, while confidence will be very high in the opposite dugout. United followed up their Carabao Cup success last weekend with victory over West Ham in the FA Cup fifth round.
While the narrative around Liverpool's 'disastrous' season isn't exactly an incorrect one, they've been good at home throughout. Only Sunday's opponents, Arsenal and Manchester City have picked up more points in front of their own supporters.
Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Liverpool 7/5 | Draw 13/5 | Man Utd 7/4
The strong showings continued with victory over Wolves in midweek. Some may point to Real Madrid's recent 5-2 hammering in the Champions League but, looking purely from an analytical perspective, the Spanish giants made the most of the opportunities that came their way.
In terms of the Premier League, Liverpool have only lost once at home. That came against Leeds, which was their only away win of the campaign. Football is just funny like that sometimes.
Lazy analysis demands more of MOHAMED SALAH this season, but the 2/1 price for the forward to SCORE ANYTIME in this game is massive based on his long-standing performances for the club.
Maybe it's that Erling Haaland is here now. He's Buzz Lightyear and Salah finds himself as Woody. The shiny new toy in Andy's room that is getting all the attention - we've seemingly put the Liverpool man away in the box with the others.
Yet his strike in their most recent game against Wolves took his total to 19 goals this season from 35 games across all competitions. Hardly the quiet campaign that is being made out.
As only eight of those have come in the Premier League, there's a belief in some corners that he's not contributing. That couldn't be further from the truth.
Salah's scored in six of their seven Champions League outings, while he's found the net in two of his last four in England's top-flight. Across all competitions, it's three goals in his last five.
He's found the scoring touch again that we've seen so often in the past. It's not as if he hasn't seen chances in the league either - Salah is averaging 3.10 shots/95 alongside 0.51 xG/95.
The underlying numbers remain strong for him. While he would have hoped for plenty more in the Premier League by this stage, his performances don't warrant the drift in price that gives us 2/1 in a home contest.
Such is the expectation for a competitive game here, we should also be prepared to see a few cards shown. The quality of the two teams, the need for three points and a fierce atmosphere provide the perfect cauldron for bookings.
Andy Madley is the referee and he's averaged 3.56 cards per game in the Premier League so far. He had Chelsea's meeting with West Ham where there were six, while Arsenal v Newcastle had a huge total of nine.
One player worth targeting in this market is BRUNO FERNANDES, with his odds for a CARD sitting at 18/5.
His rate for bookings has dropped down somewhat in comparison with the start of the season, but he's still averaging 1.2 fouls per Premier League game. Seven of his 11 league away games have all brought at least one.
Fernandes committed two fouls and was shown a yellow when United beat Liverpool in their meeting at Old Trafford back in August. It should be the type of game where he sees at least a couple committed.
There is also the petulant behaviour we see at times. The running up to the referee and demanding decisions go their way. The Anfield crowd will love any opportunity they can to wind him up.
You feel like this is to type of game where he'll get drawn into that, making him a value pick in the cards markets.
Finally, one long shot to consider is taking TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD TO SCORE ANYTIME with odds of 18/1 available.
The right-back is not a prolific scorer - shock - but he has demonstrated on multiple occasions his ability to contribute in attack.
Alexander-Arnold scored in the 9-0 hammering of Bournemouth earlier this season - in fact that came the week after their defeat to United - and he has had opportunities to add to his tally.
He's returned at least two shots in two of his last five Premier League outings, alongside at least one shot coming in each of his six Champions League games this season - with a goal against Rangers.
Liverpool's set-piece taker has returned 33 shots across appearances in both the Premier League and Champions League, with two goals coming from an xG figure of 1.8.
There is an open play threat present, but he also can deliver on free-kicks when in a decent shooting range. I wouldn't expect a price as big as 18s to be available in a game where he should have chances to get into good attacking positions down their right side.
Marcus Rashford's likely central position here also removes that threat of having to worry about defending the in-form man one-on-one. There is that possibility, but a large part of his focus should be on getting forward and contributing in attack.
Liverpool may actually be a decent pick here given their home showings throughout the season, but the best value comes in backing ALEXANDER-ARNOLD, FERNANDES and SALAH to be involved.
Liverpool v Manchester United best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Mohamed Salah to score anytime at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Bruno Fernandes to be shown a card at 18/5 (Unibet)
- 0.5pt Trent Alexander-Arnold to score anytime at 18/1 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1530 GMT (02/03/23)
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