Liverpool welcome Burnley to Anfield in Saturday's early kick-off and Tom Carnduff has found a best bet to back.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Ben Mee to have 2+ tackles at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
A contrasting but expected start to the season for these two sides. Liverpool cruised to a 3-0 win over Norwich while Burnley were beaten by Brighton. It's hardly a surprise to see the hosts a very short 1/6 for victory here as they seek revenge for the shock defeat in this fixture last season.
It's a huge 40/1 that Burnley can repeat their 1-0 success - a result that felt more of a one-off than a long-term outcome. Liverpool were in decline at that stage with injuries playing a significant part in their unsuccessful title defence - it should be a very different story this time around.
Burnley's goal from 1.99 xG against Brighton will give them hope of gaining something though and they can draw confidence from Norwich posting an xG figure of 1.81 in their defeat. The Clarets have scored in seven of their last nine meetings against Liverpool.
We can expect Liverpool to see a lot more of the ball than their opponents. They have had 70+% possession in three of their last four home encounters against Burnley - the one that failed to hit that mark finished with 69%.
Tackles provided a profitable route last weekend with winners in Leicester v Wolves, Norwich v Liverpool and Tottenham v Manchester City and the early season prices create value that we won't expect to see later in the campaign. It's worth focusing on Burnley players in this category.
The one price that immediately jumps out is the 11/10 on BEN MEE TO HAVE 2+ TACKLES with Sky Bet. You'd expect that for a player who fails to even push the 1.0 average in this category - Mee finishes last season with 1.1 tackles per game.
Mee had one in defeat to Brighton last time out but he does see his tackles count hit the two or more marker when playing the 'better' teams in the division. He had three when they were beaten by Liverpool at the end of last season.
The centre-back registered five in last season's trip to Chelsea while also having two in their successful away game at Anfield. Even in a 5-0 hammering at Manchester City, Mee managed to get in one tackle.
Tackles always seem to depend on the flow of the game but plenty of Liverpool possession and attacks should increase the chances of Mee getting a couple in. He saw twice as many successful tackles as fouls committed in the Premier League last season - a statistic that gives further hope when backing him in this market.
Ultimately it should be a game where Liverpool are successful but with a price of 1/6, there is very little interest in backing them. Even taking the Reds on the -1 handicap leaves us well short of even money and -2 always feels like a big ask.
Instead, the best value can be found in backing MEE to hit the two tackle marker on an afternoon where he should be busy throughout the 90 minutes.
Liverpool v Burnley best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Ben Mee to have 2+ tackles at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1115 BST (19/08/21)
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