Leicester host Arsenal in the opening game of the Premier League slate, and Jake Osgathorpe - who is over 10.5pts in profit in the top flight this season - thinks we could be in for a tight game.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (Boylesports)
Leicester made it back-to-back wins in the Premier League by beating Brentford last weekend, following up on their 4-2 success against Manchester United.
They host an Arsenal side who are unbeaten in six league games, fresh off the back of their best performance of the season against Aston Villa last time out (xG: ARS 3.23 - 1.36 AVL).
These sides have been involved in high-scoring games of late, but the numbers suggest that this game won't follow suit.
Let's start with Leicester.
They have conceded 11 goals in their last five league games, and 15 in total this season, and while their expected goals against (xGA) figure of 14.8 lines up with that total, a closer look at the numbers suggest the Foxes have been very unfortunate.
Brendan Rodgers's side have allowed 1.47 non-pen xGA per game, which ranks them 11th, but when looking at non-penalty big chances conceded (0.35 xG+), only Wolves (4) have allowed fewer than the Foxes (5) this season.
In total, Leicester have faced 145 non-pen shots, with only five of those being classed as 'big chances', meaning as a percentage, only 3% of the total shots Leicester concede have a greater than 35% chance of being converted.
Unsurprisingly, that low percentage leads the league, and suggests that they have been unfortunate to have conceded so many goals from chances of low-probability.
That could because they have faced an unsustainable clinical run from their opponents, or their goalkeeper - Kasper Schmeichel - hasn't been at his best.
Either way, if they continue to perform in that same manner at the back - limiting their opponents to only low-probability chances - then regression will mean they concede fewer goals.
As for Arsenal, they got off to a torrid start to the season thanks to a tough schedule and key players being absent.
Their season really started after the first international break, when they could field a full complement of players and face a kinder run of fixtures.
Those two factors combined has seen the Gunners improve greatly in both attack and defence, finding a rhythm and a formula under Mikel Arteta.
Over the last six games, only Liverpool (3.05 xGF per game) and Manchester City (2.10) have performed better in attack than Arsenal (1.91), while only City (0.86 xGA per game) have performed better defensively than the Gunners (1.04) in that time.
They are starting to live up to their pre-season promise, and picking up their solid xG process from last season - the latter point being the thing that led me to tip them to finish in the top six of the Premier League.
So, while the actual figures suggest there could be goals in this match, the underlying numbers suggest otherwise, and I am more than happy to oppose goals given the price available on UNDER 2.5 GOALS.
A best price of 11/10 and even money generally looks a value bet given everything discussed. Factor in how Arsenal play in a much more conservative manner away from home - shown by three of their four road games going under 2.5 - and this looks a solid bet.
Leicester will start to concede fewer if they continue in the same manner, while Arsenal's improving defence could halt a Leicester attack that has found form.
Leicester v Arsenal best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (Boylesports)
Score prediction: Leicester 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1025 BST (28/10/21)
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