Sporting Life
La Liga: Weekend best bets and previews

La Liga tips, best bets, predictions and previews: Matchday 17 picks

By Liam Kelly
Football
Mon January 16, 2023 · 3y ago

Liam Kelly searches for more value in the next round of La Liga fixtures, which is short on matches thanks to the Spanish Super Cup.

Football betting tips: La Liga

1.5pts Cádiz to beat Elche at 10/11 (General)

1pt Over 13.5 Girona shots v Sevilla at evens (Unibet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Cádiz v Elche

Backing Cádiz to win any game at even-money would have been madness in the early parts of the La Liga. They, along with Monday's opponents Elche, were one of the worst teams in the Spanish top tier.

The hosts for this match-up have improved since that time, however, beaten only once in their last five league games — only narrowly to Real Madrid at the Bernabéu (xG: RMA 1.62 - 1.60 CAD).

That run of form is enough to me to suggest that CÁDIZ are value TO WIN this fixture at evens.

Elche are firmly the worst team in La Liga now, anchored to the bottom of the table with a 10-point buffer to the 19th-placed side.

Their underlying numbers are shocking, too, averaging 0.92 expected goals for (xGF) and 2.51 expected goals against (xGA) per game across the course of this term.

Elche's same metrics decline further when we filter for just away matches, so backing Cádiz to gain a vital three points as hosts is the play.

Score prediction: Cádiz 2-1 Elche (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct 1400 GMT (11/01/23)

Girona v Sevilla

Sevilla conceding late and failing to keep a clean sheet in their home win over Getafe cost us a winner last weekend, but the clear signals that this defence is far from fixed can be a solid indicator in how this visit to Catalunya might go.

Facing Girona at the Montilivi is no easy task. Indeed, much more difficult than hosting Getafe, who managed to get shots away with ease when finally applying pressure to Jorge Sampaoli's side.

Sevilla have looked shaky all season and shipped 11 shots to a team struggling desperately to create scoring opportunities, which makes OVER 13.5 GIRONA SHOTS a bet here at evens with Unibet.

Girona are more than willing to get forward, especially amid home comforts.

They've averaged 14.75 shots per game in the eight fixtures played as hosts this term, logging an impressive 13.1 expected goals for (xGF) in those matches.

Up against a Sevilla defence that has totally lost its way after a selling summer, Girona can be expected to have plenty of pops at goal.

Score prediction: Girona 2-1 Sevilla (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Odds correct 1500 GMT (13/01/23)

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