Sporting Life
La Liga: Weekend best bets and previews

La Liga tips, best bets, predictions and previews: Matchday 14 picks

By Liam Kelly
Football
Thu November 10, 2022 · 3y ago

Looking to continue a good recent run of profit in La Liga, Liam Kelly searches for more value in the midweek round of fixtures in Spain's top tier.

Football betting tips: La Liga

1.5pts Athletic Club to keep a clean sheet v Real Valladolid at 21/20 (Coral)

1pt Under 2.5 Goals in Espanyol v Villarreal at 17/20 (William Hill, Unibet)

1pt Over 13.5 Valencia Shots in Valencia v Real Betis at 9/10 (Unibet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Valencia v Real Betis

This may well be as good a time as any to face Real Betis. A short turnaround following a completely bonkers El Gran Derbi gives Valencia the edge in this match-up.

Nabil Fekir and Borja Iglesias, two key cogs in the Betis machine, are missing after red cards in the game against Seville, making things a little easier for the hosts.

While their price is a little too short to play, Valencia are still underestimated as an attacking side under Gennaro Gattuso, so the 9/10 on offer about OVER 13.5 VALENCIA SHOTS is tempting.

Gattuso's side are averaging an impressive 1.74 expected goals for (xGF) per game this season, attempting 13.8 shots per game on average.

Back in the comforts of the Mestalla, Valencia can test the Real Betis goal often and breach a 13.5 line.

Score prediction: Valencia 2-1 Real Betis (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct 1100 GMT (08/11/22)

Espanyol v Villarreal

Quique Setién's tenure as Villarreal manager has not started very well at all.

After being dominated by Bilbao in his first game in charge, the Yellow Submarine were beaten by Mallorca at home at the weekend, finding it difficult to create chances in both defeats to nil.

Villarreal posted just 0.29 and 0.57 expected goals for (xGF) respectively in those matches, struggling to adapt to the particular style of Setién.

It is early days, though, and they did put in a much better defensive performance last time out, likely to improve further in a more possession-based approach to Unai Emery.

Given Villarreal's opposition, that makes UNDER 2.5 GOALS value at the prices when visiting Espanyol on Wednesday.

Involved in high-scoring games at the start of the season, Espanyol are starting to look like the 2021/22 iteration. They've been relatively solid at the back in recent outings, despite conceding some goals.

The under has hit in four of their last five La Liga matches and I expect it to do so again at the RCDE Stadium.

Score prediction: Espanyol 1-1 Villarreal (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Odds correct 1330 GMT (07/11/22)

Athletic Club v Real Valladolid

Bilbao's sometimes wayward finishing is the only thing putting me off backing them to win to nil in this fixture considering their excellent start to the season.

With that being a sticking point, the slightly shorter price of 21/20 about ATHLETIC CLUB TO KEEP A CLEAN SHEET makes appeal in a midweek match at the fortress that is San Mames.

Sitting in seventh place after a shock defeat in Girona on Friday night, the extra rest and a return home bodes well for what is the second best defensive team in La Liga according to underlying metrics.

Ernesto Valverde's side have conceded just four times in seven home matches this term, averaging an impressive 0.70 expected goals against (xGA) per game.

Gaining most of their points as hosts (13 of 17), Real Valladolid have struggled to get anything going on their travels.

They've averaged a disastrous 0.82 expected goals for (xGF) and 2.55 xGA per game in six away fixtures at the beginning of this campaign, making a trip to Bilbao on a short turnaround an agonising proposition.

Score prediction: Athletic Club 2-0 Real Valladolid (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Odds correct 1330 GMT (07/11/22)

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