Jimmy’s Punt 25/26: Staked 149.5pts | Returned 135.98pts | P/L -13.52pts | ROI -9.94%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 17:30 - Leeds vs Liverpool
0.5pt Jaka Bijol to score anytime at 20/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Football betting tips: EFL
Friday 20:00 - Hull vs Middlesbrough
2pts Over 2.5 goals at 10/11 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 - Man City vs Sunderland
3pts Both teams to score at evens (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 - Ipswich vs Coventry
1pt Jack Taylor to be carded at 13/2 (bet365)
3pts Coventry to score 2+ goals at 13/8 (Paddy Power)
1pt Coventry to score 3+ goals at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Coventry to score 4+ goals at 20/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Bobby Thomas to score anytime at 14/1 (General)
0.5pt Liam Kitching to score anytime at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
Have a whinge about last weekend's losers, watch the P/L drop then tip Jack Taylor to be carded. Butter the toast, eat the toast… God, tipping is relentless.
For clarity, the column was -3.49pts down last month. Not ideal as it tips us over the -10pts mark for the season but the EFL’s being brutally unpredictable. Small plays on big priced outsiders and the goals lines were the most consistent sources of profit last month so goals is where I am turning this weekend.
You’re never completely out of it with sweet, reliable, goals punts because as Brian Clough used to say, it only takes a second to score a goal.
Hull vs Middlesbrough
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
The Championship's entertainers Hull host Middlesbrough on Friday.
The Tigers have scored the joint-second most in the division (30) and conceded the second most in the division (30) with their games averaging 3.33 goals a game.
On their own patch, two thirds of their nine league games have seen OVER 2.5 GOALS or both teams to score click. At a shade of odds-on, the former appeals here.
By comparison, Middlesbrough’s games are tamer averaging 2.38 goals but each of their last five have seen both teams get on the scoresheet with a combined total of nine netted in their last two league fixtures.
Hull could go within two points of Boro with a win but are unlikely to revert to a conservative approach.
Since their 0-0 draw with Coventry in their opening game (how nuts does that result look in hindsight) the Tigers have played out one two-goal game, a three goal game, a four-goal game and a five-goal game against sides currently above them in the table.
Manchester City vs Sunderland
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at evens seems a little bit too obvious.
Maybe the fact Sunderland have to go to Anfield then the Etihad in the space of three days has something to do with this price.
But if you look at this for what it is, goals make a lot of sense.
Manchester City edged a nine-goal thriller in midweek. It was their third game in a row which has seen both teams score and fourth across their last five in the league with a combined total of 24 goals scored across that sample.
Both teams netted in Sunderland’s clash with Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Liverpool. So, goals should be expected when the Black Cats square-off with the division's biggest and best.
Ipswich vs Coventry
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
JACK TAYLOR, how are you?
As per the record, I have tipped him TO BE CARDED five times from 11/2 up to 10/1. Six points staked, one winner and 6.5pts returned, that is a cool +0.5pts profit.
It is decision time though because we’re locked in a Mexican standoff with bet365. Both parties refuse to admit they have made a mistake. The bookmaker keeps on pricing Taylor at big ol’ prices and I continue to say thank you very much.
Do you take the profit, concede he was in fact getting priced aptly and move on with life? Or do you continue to pile in every week until Taylor gets suspended for picking up a record-breaking amount of cards and/or his price crumbles to a measly 5/2?
I’m going to go with the latter.
He’s 13/2 for a booking against the best side in the league, the Tractor Boys' engine room should really be reverting to agricultural tactics to disrupt COVENTRY’S flow on Saturday.
The visitors are 21/10 to win at Portman Road, drifting slightly from 2/1 earlier in the week.
For context, they were 6/4 at the Riverside. It was a fairly even game against Middlesbrough, Coventry won 4-2.
For more context, Ipswich start the weekend 15 points off the top of the table and five behind Boro. Kieran McKenna’s side's ceiling is much higher than the latter, so too is their floor which casts some doubt onto proceedings on Saturday.
I was almost tempted by the 4/5 about over 2.5 goals, 74% of Ipswich’s home games in 23/24 saw this bet click but they’ve scored one goal or fewer in each of their last four on their own patch.
Coventry are good for goals. They’ve netted 50 times already this season, scored in all bar two of their 18 league games and 2+ GOALS in 15 games.
At 15/8, backing Frank Lampard’s side to score at least two goals is the bet.
The thing is, they have also scored 3+ GOALS on 10 occasions and 4+ GOALS in five games, the majority of the latter have come on the road.
That's four bets and counting for this clash. I've got some centre-back goalscorers as well.
The Sky Blues are lethal from dead-balls, they have been since Frank Lampard came in but their central defenders BOBBY THOMAS and LIAM KITCHING are rarely backable prices TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The pair have four goals between them and Coventry have 19 from set pieces.
Leeds vs Liverpool
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Liverpool are surprisingly bad at defending set-pieces. Leeds have been surprisingly threatening from them this season.
The Reds have conceded nine goals (second most in league) with Harry Maguire and Murillo profiting from dead-balls relatively recently. Leeds have netted seven set-piece goals. Joe Rodon and JAKA BIJOL have both scored from them recently.
Bijol’s goal came on Wednesday against Chelsea and with Daniel Farke finally playing to his side's strengths - pinging it onto the centre-back’s head - it feels like an ideal time to get onboard.
At the prices available, Bijol looks the bet TO SCORE ANYTIME. He is 20/1, Rodon is 12s and Pascal Struijk is 9s generally.
Odds correct at 15:00 GMT (04/12/25)
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