Jimmy’s Punt 25/26: Staked 26.5pts | Returned 40.9pts | P/L +14.4pts | ROI 54%
Football betting tips: EFL
Saturday 15:00
3pts Over 2.5 goals in Ipswich vs Derby at 11/10 (bet365)
0.5pt Over 4.5 goals in Ipswich vs Derby at 7/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Cameron Burgess to score anytime in Sheffield Wednesday vs Swansea at 20/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Mark McGuiness to score anytime in Burton vs Luton at 11/1 (Sky Bet)
2pts Newport or draw (double chance) vs Cambridge at 6/4 (General)
Usually it’s a matter of finding reasons not to back things, whittling down a list from a lot of possible fancies to a few strong punts - but it’s been tricky.
I kept looking at the action expecting to have missed a few glaring angles but they just haven’t materialised, no matter how many times I came back to the fixtures with a fresh pair of eyes.
Usually, a quick fishing trip gets the punting juices flowing. A night in the wilderness, sizzling meat on my rusty BBQ. The fish never seem to turn up but the bets usually do. Not this week.
You can't force ‘em though. Sometimes it can be like this which is why the staking plan is looking a little lighter than usual. Not to worry, less might in fact prove to be more.
I like the picks a lot as well. We got goals in the Championship, an outsider in the fourth tier and a couple of centre back goalscorers.
Ipswich vs Derby
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
When Ipswich play at home in the Championship it usually means goals.
I’ve harped on about it enough in this column already this season but here are the main statistics.
At Portman Road, in their promotion winning season, the Tractor Boys' games averaged 3.95 goals, OVER 2.5 GOALS clicked in 74% of the 23 home fixtures and OVER 4.5 GOALS landed in 43%.
Both are worth covering here at 11/10 and 7/1, especially given the opposition.
Both teams to score has clicked in all of Derby’s opening five games with the Rams netting five times and conceding nine.
Although the underlying data suggests they have been unfortunate to concede as many as they have, their tally of 5.1 xGA is one of the worst in the division.
As uncharacteristic as it may be for a John Eustace side, you cannot ignore the evidence and with the high goal line landing in their 5-3 defeat against Coventry and going close in the 3-1 defeat at Stoke. We could get a run for our money.
Sheffield Wednesday vs Swansea
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Of the seven league goals Sheffield Wednesday have shipped this season, three have come via dead balls.
One of Kieffer Moore’s goals for Wrexham came from a set piece, Jannik Vestergaard netted from a free kick for Leicester and fellow Foxes centre back Wout Faes scored from a corner.
It's why Swansea’s centre backs are worth a look this weekend.
The Swans aren’t a notorious set piece side but at 20/1, I think there is enough juice in CAMERON BURGESS’ price TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Burgess has netted 12 league goals across his career, two of which coming at this level (0.05 goals per 90).
Across the last three seasons, he has averaged 0.6 shots per 90 and racked up an xG of 3.2 so given the hosts shortcomings, he is worth a punt at Hillsborough.
Burton vs Luton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Burton rank second in League One for shots that come directly from set pieces (9), two of the six goals they shipped this season have come from dead balls as did 19 of the 66 they conceded last season.
Next up is Luton, a side with real dead ball pedigree.
The Hatters have scored five goals this term, three from set pieces, and were one of the best sides at them in the Championship despite going down scoring 17 times and racking up 19.15 xG.
At 11/1 with Sky Bet, MARK MCGUINESS is the bet. He’s scored five goals across the last two seasons in the league above and had two shots, one on target, in his last appearance.
Cambridge vs Newport
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
I have been suckered in by the price of NEWPORT DOUBLE CHANCE here but at 6/4 who can blame me?
The Exiles are 6/1 best price to win the game at the time of writing. For context, they went off slightly shorter at home to MK Dons and away at Grimsby.
Yeah, they lost both games 2-1 but these were fixtures against the bookies' ante post title favourites (Dons) and the best side in the fourth tier at the minute. And both results come with caveats.
County were outplayed by the Mariners but one of the hosts goals was an own goal and the other came in the fourth minute of injury time.
Against MK Dons, there was only 0.05 xG between the pair, Newport went ahead thanks to a dodgy bit of keeping but the Dons equalised via a very dubious penalty. There wasn’t very much in this clash between the title favourites and the relegation favourites.
David Hughes’ side also beat Crawley at 4/1 and drew with Notts County at 7/2. I just think they are too big again this weekend.
Odds correct at 1720 BST (28/08/25)
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