Sporting Life
Jimmy's Punt

Jimmy's Punt tips: EFL Championship and League Two predictions and best bets

By Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
Football
Sat September 20, 2025 · 3M ago

Jimmy's Punt 25/26: Staked 46pts | Returned 58.13pts | P/L +12.13pts | ROI 26%

Football betting tips: EFL

Saturday 15:00

3pts Sheffield United to beat Charlton at 17/20 (bet365)

0.5pt Wrexham to beat Norwich at 10/3 (bet365)

0.5pt Harry McKirdy to score anytime in Notts County vs Crawley at 3/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Jake rang me around the time Plymouth beat Brentford in the FA Cup third round last season.

This column was down considerably at the time (shock) and I was cutting it a bit fast and loose with the points. Keeper card combinations were a weekly fixture and my thought process was it is better to have one winner in 20 at average odds of 25/1 then it is to have three wins out of five at a shade of odds on.

Anyway, the data nerd rang me and said something like “blah blah blah xG… you do realise you’ve been on the right side of like eight of the last 10 double chance results and they’ve all been over even money.”

Because I kept chucking in keeper cards I cost everyone money and that’s when the penny properly dropped. I’ve always got by on the big prices but last season was brutal, bad and just embarrassing.

If the value's there, just have the bet. That’s the mantra, as it always should’ve been.

This season, I’ve had six 3pt-ers and five have won at average odds of 10/11. I think it’s about +10pts but I am very aware variance is going to come and slap me around the chops any second now.

For all that waffle of high stakes and shorter odds, I’ve only got one odds on shout this weekend. Not a lot jumped off the slate to be honest.

Sheffield United vs Charlton

My SHEFFIELD UNITED tipping has done a 180 with the appointment of Chris Wilder.

I was fading them under his predecessor Ruben Selles but since Wilder’s come back for his third spell at the club I have backed them for the title. Not that I am getting carried away…

I don’t think my bias is clouding my judgement this weekend, the Blades are just a great price TO WIN.

It isn’t a bet you can justify with statistics. The Blades have been the worst side in the division; no points, fewest goals (1), 20th for xG, joint most goals conceded and the sixth most xGA.

All that is out of the window now.

Bramall Lane’s almost sold out this weekend and it will be rocking.

Narrative aside, Charlton head to S2 without a win in five (D2 L3). They haven’t won on the road this season and have only scored once.

Norwich vs Wrexham

To completely contradict the previous angle, the Championship continues to live up to its unpredictable reputation.

Last weekend, seven teams went off at odds on and only two won.

Of the shortest prices this weekend, I think Norwich might be worth taking on because I’ve got a nagging feeling WREXHAM are going to pick up a result at Carrow Road.

There is no disputing Phil Parkinson is under pressure and on the face of it, his side are one of the worst teams defensively in the division. They have shipped 10 goals this season and an xG of 12.6 (most in the league).

A lot has been made of their backline and its distinct lack of pace. Conor Coady caught a lot of flack after his display against QPR and rightly so. He was bad but on the road, his side's low block will protect him and it is on their travels where Wrexham have put in their best performances.

Wrexham manager Phil Parkinson

Chris Wilder, on pundit duty, said the display at St Mary’s on opening day was ‘almost the perfect’ away performance.

Wrexham lost 2-1, conceded 27 shots and an xG of 4.14 which is pretty damning but for large parts were more than competitive. Southampton had four shots with an xG value over 0.30 but two of those came in stoppage time.

Since then, Wrexham beat Preston in the cup and Millwall at the Den. The Lions racked up an xG of 1.96 in the latter but didn’t have an effort over the value of 0.28.

Feels like another punt but at 10/3, I am backing the visitors TO WIN.

Notts County vs Crawley

HARRY MCKIRDY started the season at right wing-back but he’s played the last three games up front, a position he’s more familiar with, and he’s certainly vindicated Scott Lindsey’s decision.

McKirdy netted a brace at Chesterfield, blanked at Harrogate and then hit another brace against Cheltenham. So, across those three games he’s had 11 shots and scored four goals.

Although he has struggled for consistent football across the last few seasons, there is no disputing his quality.

In League Two, he has scored 37 goals in 141 games which is a goals per 90 average of 0.43.

Based on that average, quotes of 3/1 for him TO SCORE ANYTIME are too big this weekend.

Although opponents Notts County's form has picked up recently (W3 D1 L1) they have still only kept one clean sheet in the league this campaign.

Odds correct at 1720 BST (18/09/25)

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