Jimmy's Punt 25/26: Staked 113.75pts | Returned 115.37pts | P/L +1.62pts | ROI 1.4%
Football betting tips: EFL
Saturday 12:30 - Millwall vs Preston
1pt Andrew Hughes to be carded at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday 15:00 - Southampton vs Sheff Wed
2.5pts Sheff Wed +1 Asian handicap at 6/5 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 - Swansea vs Ipswich
1pt Jack Taylor to be carded at 11/2 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 - Bradford vs Burton
0.5pt Burton to win at 4/1 (General)
Saturday 15:00 - Bolton vs Port Vale
0.5pt Devante Cole to score anytime at 7/2 (bet365)
It is weird how the fixtures throw up different things on different weeks.
Some weeks you can’t move for set piece mis-matches (my favourite), the shorter prices appeal some weeks, the outsiders others, last week I thought it was going to be rife for a couple of keeper cards (actually they are my favourite).
Well, cards are the flavour of the weekend. Cards and a couple of away teams look too big on their travels.
Millwall vs Preston
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
ANDREW HUGHES was carded in midweek at Swansea. It was his sixth of the season in 13 Championship appearances.
I can’t really make sense of why he has started racking up the cards but it began five seasons ago.
Prior to the 2021/22 campaign, Hughes picked up 21 cards in 11 seasons and since that season, he has picked up 31 cards. His cards per 90 average has gone from 0.07 to 0.21 and this season it is 0.47.
So at 5/1, Hughes' price TO BE CARDED at the Den is worth a go.
Southampton vs Sheff Wed
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY continue to be undervalued away from home.
This weekend they head to St Mary’s and are generally 13/2 to beat Southampton.
Heading into last weekend's clash at West Brom, Wednesday had lost four on the spin but have since drawn their last two.
More importantly, they have been consistently competitive on the road (W1 D3 L2). The two defeats both came by a one-goal margin and the schedule has been tricky.
At 6/5, backing the Owls +1 on the ASIAN HANDICAP is the bet. It is yet to lose in any of their Championship away games this term.
Taking Southampton on does make me feel uneasy though.
The Saints have only taken 15 points from their opening 14 games but are significantly underperforming their xG metric and have just parted ways with Will Still.
Their ceiling is a lot higher than most teams in the Championship but it hasn’t clicked yet, although they did manage to win at QPR in midweek.
Swansea vs Ipswich
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
JACK TAYLOR is 11/2 TO BE CARDED with bet365.
It’s a big price considering his cards per 90 average at Ipswich is 0.37 (implied price of less than 2/1).
Granted, Taylor’s limited game time skews this slightly but he still has two cards in five league starts this season and he picked up 10 in his final season at Peterborough.
On Saturday, Taylor could be covering the likes of Ronald and Goncalo Franco (if the latter recovers from a knock) and the pair have drawn four fouls per game between them this term.
Referee Edward Duckworth is also a good appointment. He’s only refereed one Championship game in his career but gave six cards and averaged over four cards a game last season.
Bradford vs Burton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
BURTON at big prices in big games. You know the drill.
The Brewers went to Wimbledon and won, thrashed Bolton at home, schooled Cardiff on their own patch, held Huddersfield to a draw and were unlucky to lose to Stockport as they led and had a man advantage.
Gary Bowyer’s side aren’t invincible though. They squandered a two-goal lead at Rotherham on Tuesday, the same thing happened at Oakwell actually, maybe it is a South Yorkshire thing. They were also thumped when hosting Plymouth and Luton but still, Burton do their best work away from home, against the odds.
At 4/1, they are worth a poke TO WIN at Bradford.
Bolton vs Port Vale
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Although I really want to, I can’t pull the trigger on Port Vale, not at 4/1.
They were brilliant when I saw them beat Barnsley, organised and clinical, and the same has to be said when they held Cardiff to a stalemate back in August. Cardiff are a top team, the Reds are not.
Aside from the price being a touch short, Stockport - another top team - dealt Port Vale a battering in their last league outing.
On Saturday, they face another top team in Bolton. They’ve got the best expected goal-difference in League One (6.81), the fewest expected goals against (8.87) and are top of the league on expected points.
That’s not to say Port Vale frontman DEVANTE COLE can't bloody their nose.
He has four goals in eight league appearances and at 7/2, looks a touch big TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Odds correct at 1030 GMT (07/11/25)
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