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Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 25/26 Matchday 6

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Mon September 29, 2025 · 2M ago

Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 54.5pts | Returned 75.98pts | P/L +21.48pts | ROI 39%

Football betting tips: Premier League

Monday 20:00 - Everton vs West Ham - *previewed before West Ham sacked Graham Potter and appointed Nuno*

1pt Kyle Walker-Peters to be carded at 11/2 (Betway)

1pt Mateus Fernandes to be carded at 4/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)

0.75pt Michael Keane to score anytime at 7/1 (bet365)

0.5pt James Tarkowski to score anytime at 10/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)

0.5pt Jake O'Brien to score anytime at 9/1 (bet365)

Everton vs West Ham

Despite firing a blank last week with Crystal Palace’s centre-backs against West Ham, we’ll be going back in on Everton centre-backs this weekend.

That’s because while none of Chris Richards, Marc Guehi or Maxence Lacroix scored, the latter two both had chances equating to 0.20 xG - Lacroix hitting the crossbar – and the Eagles did score from a set-piece through Jean Philippe-Mateta.

That makes it seven goals conceded from set-pieces by West Ham, so on Monday we have to revisit the centre-back goalscorer angle and take JAMES TARKOWSKI, MICHAEL KEANE and JAKE O'BRIEN TO SCORE ANYTIME at 10/1, 7/1 and 9/1 respectively.

Granted, those prices are shorter than last week but all of them are value in my book for plenty of reasons. West Ham's issues defending set-pieces is of course the main one, but the Toffees are excellent fro dead-ball situations too and they have players to win a lot of free-kicks in dangerous positions.

Everton (3.17) sit behind only Arsenal (3.48) for set-piece xGF this season and set-piece reliance, with 44% of the Toffees total xG coming from dead-ball situations, while no side has taken more shots (28) from such situations - nearly half (49%) of their total shots have come from set-pieces.

So, this looks like proper mis-match, and then we factor in the free-kick winning abilities of Jack Grealish and Iliman Ndiaye, which has to be one of the reasons the Toffees have climbed the set-piece rankings, with David Moyes' men simply having more opportunities to get their big centre-backs forward and get the ball into the box.

O'Brien has had a shot in three of his five outings this season and scored twice last campaign, Michael Keane has had four shots in five games - all in Everton's last home game - and found the net three times in 18 appearances last season, while James Tarkowski has averaged 0.08 xG per 90 this term and 0.76 shots per 90 across the last three campaigns, scoring four times.

Hopefully one of them finds the net on Monday.

We also have a good referee appointment for this clash, so we'll throw a couple of darts at MATEUS FERNANDES and KYLE WALKER-PETERS TO BE CARDED at 4/1 and 11/2 due to the Grealish factor.

Walker-Peters isn't the most prolific card collector, picking up 22 across the last five seasons, but he will be directly tasked with clamping down the Everton winger who has drawn an eye-watering number of fouls of late.

Grealish has been fouled 7, 2, 6 and five times across his last four appearances, as the Toffees really have been feeding him the ball at every opportunity, with three opposing right backs getting booked in that time, so KWP is worth a swing at 11/2.

As is Fernandes, who will be playing on the right side of a midfield two and tasked with helping Walker-Peters cope with the in-cutting Grealish. We saw Dominik Szoboszlai collect a card for such a foul on Grealish last week when he dropped deeper later in the game, and the same could be on the cards for Fernandes.

The Portuguese midfielder was carded eight times at Southampton last season and six times the season prior when at Estoril in Portugal, and he looks prime candidate for Sam Barrott, a card-happy referee (5.4 cards per game this season), on Monday night.

Score prediction: Everton 2-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 1735 BST (26/09/25)

Sunday 14:00 - Aston Villa vs Fulham

1.5pts Fulham draw no bet at 11/8 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports)

Sunday 16:30 - Newcastle vs Arsenal

3pts Under 2.5 goals at 8/11 (General)

Aston Villa vs Fulham

Aston Villa got their first win of the season in the Europa League in midweek but were again unconvincing, and now they host a good Fulham team having come through a taxing game on Thursday.

Unai Emery's side have had a shocking start to the campaign by their standards, posting the joint-worst attacking process (0.76 xGF per game) and the fourth worst defensive process (1.60 xGA per game). Only Burnley (3.5) have accumulated fewer expected points than Villa (3.6).

It paints an ugly picture, and when we factor in just how poorly the Villans were last season following Champions League league phase (W1 D3 L4), we have to back FULHAM DRAW NO BET at 11/8.

The Cottagers are a good side and have started the season impressively (W2 D2 L1) with their sole defeat a controversial one at Chelsea.

Marco Silva's side also had a steady record against top half teams last season (W7 D3 L8), so given how poor Villa have been, the fact they've played on Thursday and that Fulham are extremely dangerous, getting the visitors onside makes sense.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 0-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct at 1500 BST (26/09/25)

Newcastle vs Arsenal

Will Mikel Arteta ever 'take the handbrake off'? There is of course a scenario he takes the handbrake off and the Gunners roll backwards rather than drive forward - and that's why it'll stay firmly fixed.

That means we can expect a low-margin, low-scoring game at St James' Park, especially with Newcastle doing their best Arsenal-lite impression this season - being tough to beat.

These two actually rank as the best defensive teams in the league through five games, with the Magpies (0.51) in fact on top according to xGA against per game, with the Gunners close behind (0.66).

It's no surprise then that four of Newcastle's five league games this season have seen UNDER 2.5 GOALS, and three of Arsenal's three against big sides delivering the same, and that's the selection at 8/11.

It simply has to be, even if it seems too simple and straightforward. Arsenal play defensive against the best teams, especially away from home.

When travelling to top half finishers last season, the Gunners' games averaged just 2.33 goals, with Unders clicking in six of nine.

Arsenal played Newcastle four times last season and all four went under 2.5, with these two a physical match for each other. The two league games finished 1-0, and a repeat wouldn't be a surprise, nor would the 0-0.

Score prediction: Newcastle 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Odds correct at 1530 BST (26/09/25)

Thank you Trevoh Chalobah and Jurrien Timber, who turned a bad week into a good one last time out. We were in the green again as a result of the former's consolation header, and the latter's yellow card, taking the P+L above +20pts.

It's been a great start and we'll hope it continues, but I feel as though we are at a very tricky period now everyone has a handle on teams and players.

That said, player cards have been happy hunting ground so far (+11.6pts), and we've plenty more that have caught the eye this weekend, along with another centre-back - or three - to score against Manchester United in the first game of the week.

Football betting tips: Premier League

Saturday 12:30 - Brentford vs Man Utd

0.5pt Nathan Collins to score anytime at 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt Ethan Pinnock to score anytime at 14/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)

0.5pt Sepp van den Berg to score anytime at 16/1 (bet365)

Saturday 15:00

1pt Marc Cucurella to be carded in Chelsea vs Brighton at 5/2 (Sky Bet)

1pt Will Hughes to be carded in Palace vs Liverpool at 3/1 (bet365)

1pt Kyle Walker to commit 2+ fouls in Man City vs Burnley at 11/4 (bet365)

1pt Kyle Walker to be carded in Man City vs Burnley at 9/2 (Sky Bet)

Saturday 17:30 - N Forest vs Sunderland

1pt Granit Xhaka to be carded at 10/3 (bet365)

Saturday 20:00 - Tottenham vs Wolves

1.5pts Ladislav Krejci to commit 2+ fouls at 13/8 (bet365)

Brentford vs Manchester United

The thread of backing centre-back goalscorers against Manchester United paid off last week with Trevoh Chalobah finding the net at Old Trafford, and I'm going back in again at the Gtech, with Brentford a strong set-piece side now led by their set-piece coach.

You can bet your bottom dollar Keith Andrews will be licking his lips at the thought of long throw-ins and in-swinging corners against this United side, who have now conceded three goals in five games and conceding an average of 0.54 xGA per game from such situations.

So, we'll take all of Brentford's centre-backs TO SCORE ANYTIME with the Bees playing three CB's the last few games. So, that's ETHAN PINNOCK, NATHAN COLLINS and SEPP VAN DEN BERG, who can be backed at 14/1, 14/1 and 16/1.

Pinnock scored twice last season, twice the season before and three times the campaign before that and Collins has scored twice in both last few seasons. Van den Berg is yet to score for Brentford but did score three times in 33 Bundesliga games when on-loan at Mainz.

Hopefully one of them becomes the latest centre-back to score against Ruben Amorim's side, who have seen six score in his 34 league games.

Score prediction: Brentford 2-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Odds correct at 1130 BST (26/09/25)

Chelsea vs Brighton

Cards look to be the way in at Stamford Bridge with Simon Hooper's appointment. The whistleblower has been in great form to start the campaign, flashing at least five cards in all of his four league matches.

So, who to target? Well, despite being priced at 5/2, former Brighton and now Chelsea left-back MARC CUCURELLA looks a good bet TO BE CARDED.

He has committed 1.76 fouls per 90 this season and has been booked in both of his last two appearances - Man Utd last weekend and Lincoln in midweek.

He picked up nine cards last season including one in this fixture against his former team.

The Seagulls have seen three of the five left-backs they've faced get carded this season, with Yankuba Minteh a main reason why.

He's drawn 1.74 fouls per 90 this term, and has looked very sharp. The likely open nature of this game should help this bet too.

Score prediction: Chelsea 3-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)

Odds correct at 1130 BST (26/09/25)

Crystal Palace vs Liverpool

Liverpool can't keep winning with late goals can they? *In my best Mick McCarthy* - They can. It's now six wins in seven this season that have come via an 80th minute or late goal, and it shows both the firepower off the bench and the never say die attitude.

They may need another here given how difficult Crystal Palace are to beat, the Eagles currently on a 17-game unbeaten run across all competitions. That run features games against some of the league's best sides, including Liverpool twice - once in the league and once in the Community Shield.

Palace or draw was tempting at 10/11, but I have been drawn in once again by the massive 3/1 price available for WILL HUGHES TO BE CARDED.

I'm scratching my head as to why he's so big given his record, with Hughes already booked in four of six games against English sides this season at an average of 0.76 cards per 90. Last season he was carded 11 times in the Premier League at an average of 0.47 per 90 too, so he's a serial offender.

For context, Sasa Lukic is the only player to have collected more top flight yellows than Hughes since the start of last season, and he goes off no bigger than 2/1 in every game.

He was booked in this fixture last season as well in what was a tight game won by a single goal, so with Liverpool posing some even trickier players around Hughes, but the game-state expected to be the same in terms of how close the contest is, we simply have to chance him at the prices.

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Odds correct at 1130 BST (26/09/25)

Leeds vs Bournemouth

This could be a dangerous game for Bournemouth, with Leeds quite happy to let the Cherries have the ball and not allow them to deploy their intense final third press.

It's going to be a no bet here, with any outcome on the table, and the no first scorer at 10s even a major runner, as is Leeds not to score at 9/4.

Score prediction: Leeds 0-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct at 1130 BST (26/09/25)

Manchester City vs Burnley

Jeremy Doku continues to be a handful, and he helped us land a winning bet last week with Arsenal right-back Jurrien Timber getting carded. We'll rinse and repeat this weekend, with a couple of added bonuses.

Former Manchester City man KYLE WALKER is the player to target, with the Burnley right-back likely up against Doku, while the game-state should see this being wave after wave of City attack, and against a deep block, an excellent 1v1 dribbler Doku will be given the ball at every opportunity lot to try and get to the by-line.

Walker will be in for a long afternoon, whether he's at right-back or right-wing-back, as Burnley aim to soak up pressure and frustrate their hosts. He is priced at 11/4 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS and 9/2 TO BE CARDED - and we'll back both. The 9/2 is with Sky Bet and offers super sub, with BetVictor bigger at 5/1, but we'lll take the former.

Kyle Walker and Jeremy Doku

Doku has been fouled 2.54 times per 90 in the league this season, and he is one of the main reasons that opposing right backs and right centre-backs have picked up a card in five of City's six games he's featured.

Walker has impressed this season after a down season in 24/25, but committed two fouls last time out against the tricky Dan Ndoye of Nottingham Forest, and was carded against Manchester United, so is vulnerable compared to his peak. His former teammate can exploit him on Saturday.

Score prediction: Manchester City 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland

I like Sunderland's chances to get a result on Saturday, but not as much as I like cards - unsurprisingly. Tony Harrington is the man with the whistle and he averaged 4.44 cards per game last season and 4.0 per game so far this season.

GRANIT XHAKA's price TO BE CARDED leapt off the page at 10/3. Not only has he been carded in two of his last three league starts, but he's averaged 1.80 fouls per 90 - including four fouls last time out.

His card record is excellent, and at the City Ground he'll be tasked with keeping tabs on Morgan Gibbs-White, which is the main reason I like this bet. The Nottingham Forest midfielder has a knack of getting his opposite number in trouble, and I fancy that to only increase under Ange Postecoglou's tutelage.

Morgan Gibbs-White draws a lot of cards from his opponents

Across his last 15 top flight starts, Gibbs-White has seen 10 of his opposing numbers - defensive midfielder's - booked. That's one hell of a record, and while not all of that can be attributed to him, he plays a very big part.

So, Xhaka rates a cracking bet, especially if this game stays very tight as I expect.

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Odds correct at 1325 BST (26/09/25)

Tottenham vs Wolves

Keep an eye on Wolves' new signing LADISLAV KREJCI, who has been a foul machine in his two league appearances. With Andre unlikely to start having picked up a knock in midweek, the Czech international should get the nod again after his goal last week, and his price of 13/8 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS looks massive.

There is a chance that he is priced like this as he is a centre-back by trade, but he has played in midfield in his two starts, across which this bet has won on both occasions, with him committing a huge five fouls against Leeds.

The bonus with this bet is that he pulls to the left of midfield meaning he'll be in Mohammed Kudus' channel which only helps this bet.

Spurs' midfield is extremely mobile this season too, and we get the super sub bonus on bet365, which could see Marshall Munetsi or Andre come off the bench and replace him. We should get a run for our money.

Also, final point, he is 7/4 with bet365 to be carded, yet 13/8 to commit 2+ fouls - the prices between those markets are usually bigger than that, and with Michael Salisbury the man in charge here (3.45 cards per game last season, one card in one Prem game this season), the latter is by far the smarter play.

Score prediction: Tottenham 2-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Odds correct at 1420 BST (26/09/25)

Odds correct at 1130 BST (26/09/25)

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