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Jake's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 25/26 Matchday 5

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Sun September 21, 2025 · 3M ago

Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 54.5pts | Returned 75.98pts | P/L +21.48pts | ROI 39%

Football betting tips: Premier League

Sunday 14:00 - Bournemouth vs Newcastle

1.5pts Bournemouth to win at 6/4 (William Hill)

1.5pt Joelinton to be carded at 2/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Tyler Adams to be carded at 7/2 (Betway)

Sunday 16:30 - Arsenal vs Man City

2pts Arsenal to win at 19/20 (Betfred)

1.5pts Jurrien Timber to commit 2+ fouls at 13/8 (bet365)

1pt Jurrien Timber to be carded at 4/1 (Betway)

Another solid weekend of profit, with Saturday doing a lot of heavy lifting. Antoine Semenyo scored for our 5/2 bet - full disclosure, I honestly didn't know he was their penalty taker - before Matty Cash picked up a card in the first half against Jack Grealish.

A Leeds own goal landed the Fulham win to nil late on, before the late game delivered us two fouls on Trevoh Chalobah in the first 10 minutes of Chelsea's visit to Brentford. Nice. Sunday wasn't so good, and I am kicking myself for taking a pro-card stance in the Manchester derby with my favourite no card ref Anthony Taylor in charge... In hindsight that was a missed opportunity, but we can't grumble too much.

On to this week and we have a stacked staking plan with a lot of fancies, so we will either build on early season successes or whittle them away. Hopefully the former.

Bournemouth vs Newcastle

Andoni Iraola seems to have Eddie Howe's number. The pair have met four times in the Premier League, and Bournemouth are unbeaten, winning twice. The key here though is that the performances across the four head-to-head's have been very one-sided.

The Cherries have scored multiple times in three of those, and have averaged a huge 2.30 xGF per game against the Magpies, while limiting Newcastle to just 1.30 xG per game across that span.

That, combined with how well the hosts have started this season, and the fact Newcastle played a hugely draining game on Thursday against Barcelona in the Champions League, makes the 6/4 about BOURNEMOUTH TO WIN value.

Only Arsenal have collected more expected points than Bournemouth this season, that after finishing third on xP last season, so Iraola's side are legitimately a very good Premier League side that are very reliable.

We also have to take a few card darts here and given Bournemouth's intense pressing style especially in midfield, we'll take TYLER ADAMS and JOELINTON TO BE CARDED.

Adams has been booked in all of his last three league starts averaging 1.51 fouls committed per 90, building on a solid seven card (0.35 p90) and 2.06 fouls per 90 last season, and will have his hands full with Bruno Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali and Joelinton.

Newcastle's Brazilian midfielder is a short price at 2/1, but is still value in my book in what will be a foul heavy, fast, transitional game. He has been booked in one of his three league starts, but did pick up a card in midweek against Barcelona, while last season he picked up 10 yellows (0.37 p90) and committed 2.17 fouls per 90.

He was booked in both meetings last season, with him clearly struggling to deal with the relentless pace with which Bournemouth games are played at.

The referee here is Robert Jones, who's last outing was a seven card game in an international friendly. Yes, you read that right. His last Premier League game was a four carder as Chelsea beat Fulham, while last season he averaged 4.5 cards per game, so he's a decent appointment for what should be a feisty and full-tilt clash.

Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct at 1620 BST (19/09/25)

Sunderland vs Aston Villa

Things have not been good for Aston Villa this season. Results have reflected performances, which is worrying, as their issues are worst than just 'bad luck'.

You have to imagine that Unai Emery will change a few things in the hope of sparking his attack into life, with their defence performing at a similar level to last season.

I was looking at Sunderland's price to win (11/4) thinking that could well be value, but I want to see one more week of both sides before trusting Sunderland and believing Villa just poor this season. BTTS 'no' was close to making the staking plan too at 10/11, as did no first scorer (17/2) but we'll stick with a good old no bet.

Score prediction: Sunderland 0-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Odds correct at 1620 BST (19/09/25)

Arsenal vs Manchester City

I'm still not believing the Manchester City hype. The 'they are in a title race, they are contenders' spiel. I could well be wrong, and I'll happily hold my hands up if they do sustain a challenge, but we haven't seen anywhere near enough to suggest they have solved all their problems.

If anything, what we've seen is that the same issues remain. Tottenham and Brighton exposed their vulnerable defence and punished them. Manchester United did the same, breaking through the press, but lacked the cutting edge to take advantage.

Arsenal will not. The Gunners will fire in attack and expose City's still leaky backline, while the defensive strength of Mikel Arteta's side will hold the Cityzens at bay, so I simply have to get on ARSENAL TO WIN at a shade of odds-on.

They got the monkey off their back last season by beating City, so that psychological advantage City had is gone, and now Arsenal are just a better team. They were the same price last season, and I'm more confident in the Gunners this season.

The final point is just how bad City have been away from home against the top sides since the start of last season. Since beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in the very first game of last season, Guardiola's side are winless against top half finishers, losing six of nine, and they've allowed 1.85 xGA per game across those fixtures.

We've already seen Brighton, a top-half finisher from last season, beat them, so I need to see City turn the tide in such games to even consider getting them onside. Arsenal are the play, especially with two days extra rest, with City playing on Thursday.

With Stuart Attwell (5.75 cards per game this season) overseeing proceedings here, we'll also dip into the TO BE CARDED market, where JURRIEN TIMBER has to be backed at 4/1 (Betway), though I'd make the 10/3 generally available value.

The case is pretty straightforward. Timber has averaged 1.71 fouls per 90 this season, and has been carded already, while he picked up seven yellows last season. On Sunday he'll be up against Jeremy Doku, who has been electric to start the campaign.

'Ballon d'Oku', as City fans are calling him, has won 2.28 fouls per 90 this season and is averaging nearly six dribbles per 90, and he is one of the main reasons why opposing right backs and right centre-backs have picked up a card in four of City's five games.

Timber committed two fouls on Doku in the first meeting last season, avoiding a card, but he did pick up a card at the Emirates, again making two fouls, though Doku was injured for that meeting, so, as well as the card, we'll back TIMBER 2+ FOULS COMMITTED at 13/8 to round us off for the week.

Savinho is likely the sub for Doku should the Belgian depart, and he drew two fouls from Timber in the 5-1 mauling last season, which is another boost for both bets. As is the fact that Noni Madueke will likely be playing in front of Timber, perhaps not offering as much support as Bukayo Saka does.

Score prediction: Arsenal 4-1 Man City (Sky Bet odds: 28/1)

Odds correct at 1745 BST (19/09/25)

Saturday 12:30 - Liverpool vs Everton

2pts Virgil van Dijk to win 1+ foul at 8/5 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)

0.5pt Virgil van Dijk to win 2+ fouls at 9/1 (Betfair)

Saturday 15:00 - West Ham vs Palace

1pt Soungoutou Magassa to be carded at 3/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

1pt Yeremy Pino to be carded at 9/2 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt Magassa and Pino to be carded at 21/1 (Betfair)

0.5pt Chris Richards to score anytime at 16/1 (Boylesports, Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt Marc Guehi to score anytime at 16/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

0.5pt Maxence Lacroix to score anytime at 16/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

Saturday 17:30 - Man Utd vs Chelsea

2pts Trevoh Chalobah 1+ total shot at evens (bet365)

0.5pt Trevoh Chalobah to score anytime at 12/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair, bet365)

Saturday 20:00 - Fulham vs Brentford

1pt Calvin Bassey to win 2+ fouls at 12/5 (Betfair)

Liverpool vs Everton

Liverpool have been the late show this season, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them needing another late goal to beat a very good Everton team.

The Toffees are well organised and have attacking flair, so should keep things close at the very least, just like the two meetings last season which finished 2-2 (at Goodison Park) and 1-0 (to the Reds at Anfield).

The bet here though revolves around a player battle, with Beto and VIRGIL VAN DIJK likely to renew their tussle from the last few Merseyside derbies. David Moyes made it a clear ploy at Anfield last season to fire long balls into VVD's channel for Beto to chase, and it resulted in a few wrestling matches between the pair.

Virgil van Dijk battling Beto

On that occasion, both committed two fouls on each other, and I think at 8/5 and 9/1, we have to back VAN DIJK TO WIN 1+ and 2+ FOULS.

Liverpool's captain has been fouled once in all of his last four starts, and was fouled in both derbies last season by Beto.

Everton's striker has committed an average of 2.02 fouls per 90 this season, 1.94 last season, while his replacement Thierno Barry is equally as foul prone (1.82 per 90 last season) meaning the bets will have a great chance for the entire match.

Score prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 1410 BST (18/09/25)

Brighton vs Tottenham

Brighton have a great record against better teams at the Amex, which has me wanting to back the Seagulls, but they are too short now, priced around 5/4.

I can't trust this new Spurs team just yet so it's a no bet from me, though it is worth noting that Thomas Frank had Fabian Hurzeler's number last season, winning one and drawing one when manager of Brentford.

Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Odds correct at 1435 BST (18/09/25)

Burnley vs Nottingham Forest

Well, Ange Postecoglou's Nottingham Forest reign has got off to a good start... A heavy defeat at Arsenal followed by the throwing away of a 2-0 lead in the Carabao Cup to lose at Swansea has put him on the back foot straight away.

A tricky trip to Burnley is next up, and I have to say, the 5/2 about the home win did almost, almost lure me in. The Clarets have been excellent at home under Scott Parker, losing just one of 25 league games and conceding just nine times. They could add to Forest's misery, but I just can't bring myself to pull the trigger.

Score prediction: Burnley 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Odds correct at 1600 BST (18/09/25)

West Ham vs Crystal Palace

There is a lot that appeals in this game, which could be the end of the road for Graham Potter should Crystal Palace do to West Ham what they did to Aston Villa.

Having put up a Hammers player and a Palace player TO BE CARDED last weekend, with a loser and a void, I want to revisit both, with the pair likely to be up against each other in what could be a feisty battle.

The two in question are SOUNGOUTOU MAGASSA and YEREMY PINO, who are available at 3/1 and 9/2 respectively. We'll also play the DOUBLE at 21/1.

The referee here is Tony Harrington who averaged 4.44 cards per game last season and has been steady enough this season, but the bet revolves around both players' propensity to get stuck in.

Magassa averaged 2.47 fouls and 0.53 cards per 90 at Monaco last season, while Pino was running at 2.26 fouls and 0.51 cards per 90.

The Spaniard has shown already that he has continued that form, committing six fouls in just 103 Premier League minutes, while the Frenchman didn't get much opportunity off the bench last week with his side well behind and down to 10 men.

This should be different, and I just hope the pair get stuck into each other.

We also have to throw a few darts at Crystal Palace's centre-backs to score given how bad West Ham are at defending set-pieces.

The Hammers have shipped six set-piece goals in just four league outings, with three centre-backs already netting against Potter's men - Dan Ballard, Trevoh Chalobah and Micky van de Ven. Palace play with three, so we can either target one, or spread stakes around.

To be safe, I'm going to sprinkle 0.5pt on all three. I'd be sick if I backed one or two and the other scored... So, it's MARC GUEHI, MAXENCE LACROIX and CHRIS RICHARDS TO SCORE ANYTIME as separate bets, all 16/1.

Guehi has scored once already this season for Palace, once for England, and three times last season. Richards scored against Millwall in midweek and scored once last season, while Lacroix was the biggest threat last season in terms of xG per 90 (0.10), scoring once from 30 shots equating to 3.43.

Score prediction: West Ham 1-3 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)

Odds correct at 1520 BST (18/09/25)

Wolves vs Leeds

A big six-pointer at Molineux, with two struggling teams clashing. Wolves are pointless after four games, while Leeds have three points but have scored just one goal.

It's a big swerve from me here, as I could see this game going all sorts of ways, especially with both desperate for a good result in the rare game they will fancy their chances.

Score prediction: Wolves 1-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Odds correct at 1520 BST (18/09/25)

Manchester United vs Chelsea

It doesn't get any easier for Manchester United, who were woeful at Manchester City in defence and attack, and now get to face another of last season's top four finishers Chelsea.

The timing is opportune for the Red Devils, with the Blues having played away in the Champions League on Wednesday, but Ruben Amorim's side just can't be trusted, against anyone. His record in the Premier League reading W8 D7 L15 - a 26.7% win percentage. Ouch.

Defending set-pieces remains an issue for United, and that's where we'll be looking to profit on Saturday. Only Wolves and Burnley have conceded more xGA from set-pieces than Amroim's men (2.36) this season, with only West Ham conceding more goals.

Chelsea scored three from corners against the Hammers, with TREVOH CHALOBAH getting on the scoresheet, and he looks worth backing again to both HAVE 1+ SHOT and TO SCORE ANYTIME at evens and 12/1.

Already this season Chalobah has taken seven shots in four league outings at an average of 1.86 per 90, so evens looks massive for just one attempt, while he's averaging 0.15 xG per 90, which is a big figure for a centre-back. An interesting bonus for the shot bet is that he has also started pulling the trigger from range.

Last season he scored three times in the Premier League, with two of those coming against the weaker set-piece sides (Wolves and Southampton), while averaging 0.82 shots per 90, scored once in 23/24 and four times in 21/22. He has an eye for goal.

The other angle I was looking at was something Alejandro Garnacho related, with the former member of Amorim's 'bomb squad' returning as a Chelsea player. Unfortunately, he is 14/5 to score which is very short in my opinion, though the 5/1 for a card does look big given how pumped he will be. The question, though, is whether he will start, so doesn't make the staking plan.

Score prediction: Manchester United 1-3 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)

Odds correct at 1045 BST (19/09/25)

Fulham vs Brentford

A West London derby to close out Saturday's action, and we simply have to keep pulling on the Igor Thiago thread. He is a foul machine, meaning his opposing numbers should be backed TO BE FOULED.

Last weekend he delivered us two fouls on Trevoh Chalobah within 20 minutes, and hopefully he can do so again here against CALVIN BASSEY at 12/5.

Thaigo's victims so far feature Nottingham Forest's Murillo (2), Aston Villa's Tyrone Mings (1), Sunderland's Nordi Mukiele (2) and Chelsea's Chalobah (2), with Brentford's direct approach coupled with Thiago's physicality and clumsiness resulting in these results.

Bassey gets the nod over Joachim Anderson for Fulham as he is the aggressive, physical centre-back who loves a duel, and it shows in his fouls won numbers.

He gets involved in nearly 10 duels per 90, and so far this season has won 1.5 fouls per 90, making him the perfect candidate to get the Thiago treatment, with an equally physical striker Dominic Calvert Lewin committing three fouls on Bassey last time out.

Score prediction: Fulham 2-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct at 1230 BST (19/09/25)

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