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Jake's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 25/26 Matchday 31

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Thu March 19, 2026 · 2h ago

Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 450.5pts | Returned 500.04pts | P/L +49.54pts | ROI 11%

Football betting tips: Premier League

Friday 20:00 - Bournemouth vs Man Utd

2pts Harry Maguire 1+ total shot at 6/5 (bet365) - min price 8/11

Saturday 12:30 - Brighton vs Liverpool

2pts Jack Hinshelwood 2+ total shots at 17/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price evs

0.5pt Jack Hinshelwood 3+ total shots at 11/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 3/1

Saturday 15:00 - Fulham vs Burnley

2pts Calvin Bassey to win 1+ foul and Zian Flemming to commit 2+ fouls at 6/5 (bet356) - min price 8/11

Saturday 17:30 - Everton vs Chelsea

2pts Jarred Branthwaite 1+ total shot at 7/5 (Betway) - min price evens

Saturday 20:00 - Leeds vs Brentford

0.75pts James Justin to be carded at 13/2 (bet365, William Hill) - min price 4/1

Sunday 12:00 - Newcastle vs Sunderland

2pts Over 4.5 cards and Under 3.5 goals at evens (Sky Bet) - min price 8/11

1pt Dan Burn to be carded at 5/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 17/10

***Sunday 14:15 tips to follow

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Why, why, why didn't Richarlison whip his shirt off after scoring a late equaliser against Liverpool at Anfield... Why?

I couldn't believe it. When the ball hit the net I was celebrating a clean sweep of Richy-focused winners but he didn't oblige with the celebration. Maybe he's grown up and matured.

Anyway, in the end the gameweek was a minor loss (-0.09pts), so onto this weekend where we have just eight top flight games to go at with the Carabao Cup taking centre-stage.

Some familiar names and bets appear once again as the prices are still not being cut accordingly, so hopefully those edges deliver once again.

Bournemouth vs Manchester United

Manchester United are in the drivers seat to qualify for the Champions League after their win over Aston Villa last weekend, a result that put five points between themselves and fifth-placed Liverpool with just eight games to go. A trip to Bournemouth is a tricky task this week though.

The Cherries are unbeaten in 10 league games, with that run littered with draws (6) as they've become a very difficult team to beat. At home they've lost just one of eight, and that came at the hands of champions-elect Arsenal.

One area of continued weakness for the hosts is defending set-pieces, and it just so happens that attacking set-pieces are a strength for United. So, HARRY MAGUIRE's price to have 1+ TOTAL SHOT jumps off the page at 6/5.

The Cherries have conceded the joint-most set-piece goals this term (16) and have faced the fourth-most set-piece shots, while only Arsenal have scored more goals from dead-balls than United (15).

Maguire hasn't been as prolific as you'd like of late, but has registered a nine of his 14 starts across all competitions this season and has averaged 0.72 shots per 90 in Premier League appearances.

Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Odds correct at 14:30 GMT (19/03/26)

Brighton vs Liverpool

Liverpool were excellent in midweek against an admittedly poor Galatasaray side to progress through to the Champions League quarter-finals, but this will be a much tougher test, on the road, against a side who enjoy playing against better sides, and off the back of a Wednesday night game.

A Brighton win at 21/10 really did appeal with the Reds winning just four of their last 13 away games in the league, but we'll go back to the JACK HINSHELWOOD well and back him to have 2+ TOTAL SHOTS after he delivered yet again last week. This week he's 17/10.

This bet has now won in all of his last six league starts, with the Englishman playing further forward in a number 10 role of late and getting into some very advanced positions, averaging 2.94 shots per 90.

He's landed the 3+ TOTAL SHOTS in four of those six and in two of his last three home starts in the league, including against Arsenal, so we'll swing at the higher line too at a nice 11/2 price.

Liverpool have conceded a lot of shots in recent away games too, with Nottingham Forest firing 18, a shot-shy Sunderland hitting 11 and Bournemouth taking 12, so a Brighton team who will fancy their chances against this Reds press could rack up the shots. Hopefully Hinsh gets involved.

Score prediction: Brighton 2-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Odds correct at 14:30 GMT (19/03/26)

Fulham vs Burnley

Burnley will go down, Fulham don't really have much to play for. That makes the outcome of this game a tough one to call in my book, though I do fancy a home win. The bet here revolves around ZIAN FLEMMING's foul capability.

The Burnley striker is committing an average of 2.37 fouls per 90, and has landed 2+ FOULS COMMITTED in five of his last seven, and that is the first leg of a double.

We're pairing that up with his direct opponent, CALVIN BASSEY, TO WIN 1+ FOUL to give us a nice looking 6/5 shot.

Bassey has been a foul drawing machine of late, winning 15 across his last seven league starts with 1+ landing in all of them, while over the season he's averaging 1.44 fouls won per 90.

This looks a good match-up for a fouls bet.

Score prediction: Fulham 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Odds correct at 14:30 GMT (19/03/26)

Everton vs Chelsea

If Everton win here, they would go within two points of Chelsea. That sounds wrong doesn't it.

But, it shows how good of a season the Toffees are having under David Moyes and how badly Chelsea are doing. Everton were brilliant at Arsenal last weekend and lost to a 90th minute goal from the goal-line and an open net on the counter.

Chelsea meanwhile have won just three of their last 11 in all competitions, with those victories coming against Championship side Hull, soon-to-be Championship side Wolves and a bang out-of-sorts Aston Villa. They can't be trusted here.

Instead I want to take them on with an Everton set-piece threat. Since Liam Rosenior has taken charge, in his 13 matches against English opponents his Chelsea team have conceded eight set-piece goals, 6.9 xG from dead-balls and faced 58 shots from such situations. That's a per game average of 0.62 goals, 0.53 xG and 4.46 shots faced.

A whopping 24 of those shots (1.85 per game) have come from opposing centre-backs, so the 7/5 for JARRAD BRANTHWAITE 1+ TOTAL SHOT here looks massive. The towering defender missed last week's game but should be fit to come back in from the off here.

He's started only five times this season due to injuries, but has registered a shot in four of those and grabbing a goal away at Newcastle. His shots per 90 this season stands at 0.91, and while Michael Keane has played more minutes, it's worth noting Keane's per 90 stands at 0.92 yet he's 4/5 for a single shot here.

Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Odds correct at 14:30 GMT (19/03/26)

Leeds vs Brentford

In a weekend of big games, this is sneakily a big one for both teams. For Leeds it's a winnable home game as they look to stay clear of relegation trouble, for Brentford they need to win these kinds of games against bottom six sides if they are to qualify for Europe.

The Whites are just three points above the dotted line while the Bees are just three points behind sixth-placed Chelsea and six points off the top four, the draw with Wolves on Monday a huge missed opportunity especially as they were 2-0 up.

This will be a good game then, and it should be a very physical one, with cards fancied to flow. Jarred Gillett has been heavy-handed with cards of late, flashing 5-5-6-3-2-3-8 across his last seven, and I'm drawn the 13/2 about JAMES JUSTIN TO BE CARDED.

With Gabriel Gudmundsson suspended for this, Justin is highly likely to be playing left-wing-back which could put him up against the lively and tricky Dango Ouattara who has drawn 1.58 fouls per 90, as well as an over-lapping Michael Kayode (1.49 fouls won per 90).

Justin isn't the most prolific card collector, picking up just two this season, but this is a tough match-up for him in an unfamiliar position, so he's worth a small bet at a big price.

Score prediction: Leeds 1-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Odds correct at 14:30 GMT (19/03/26)

Newcastle vs Sunderland

This should be tasty. The Tyne-Wear derby is always an intense game but this one feels hugely important. Sunderland have the chance to do the double over their rivals, while Newcastle need to win to keep pace with the European places.

The Magpies, fresh off a 7-2 shellacking in Barcelona, have won their last two against sides in the top six, but Sunderland have a significant rest advantage heading to St. James' Park. While it's hard to predict the result, we can be confident that there will be cards.

The first meeting at the Stadium of Light was a spicy one with nine yellows brandished, and this fixture is always card heavy. In fact, the last 15 head-to-heads have averaged 6.07 cards per game. This game should be no different with Anthony Taylor at the whistle (3.96 cards per game in PL).

We'll start by backing OVER 4.5 CARDS AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS for an even money shot. Only one of the last 15 Tyne-Wear derbies have seen four or more goals, while 11 of the 15 have delivered five or more cards. Evens on a repeat looks big.

Dan Burn tussling with Brian Brobbey at the Stadium of Light

Let's also back home-town-hero DAN BURN TO BE CARDED at 5/2. The lumbering defender was taken off before half-time in the first meeting after a thumping challenge led to a broken rib and punctured lung. You can bet he'll be out for some revenge on Sunday, and he will be incredibly hyped for this derby.

Burn has been carded 10 times this season across all competitions and has a 0.42 card per 90 average in the Premier League, so even before factoring in the increased tension of a derby, the fact he's playing for his boyhood club and that he will be bitter about coming off early in the first meeting, this card price is value.

As a bonus he's also up against Brian Brobbey who is a handful. The Dutchman is extremely physical and quick making him a good foul drawer (1.76 fouls won per 90) and a problem match-up for Burn.

Score prediction: Newcastle 1-0 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Odds correct at 16:00 GMT (19/03/26)

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