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Jake's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 25/26 Matchday 27

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Mon February 23, 2026 · 2M ago
  • Gordon can give City problems in late Saturday game
  • Cards on the menu in early Super Sunday kick-offs
  • Igor Tudor takes over Tottenham ahead of a huge North London derby

Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 351.75pts | Returned 350.43pts | P/L -1.32pts | ROI -0.4%

Football betting tips: Premier League

Sunday 14:00

1.5pt Andre to be carded in C Palace vs Wolves at 12/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt Will Hughes to be carded in C Palace vs Wolves at 16/5 (Betway)

1pt Jorgen Strand Larsen to be carded in C Palace vs Wolves at 10/1 (bet365)

2.5pts Nikola Milenkovic to commit 1+ foul in N Forest vs Liverpool at 4/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.75pt Nikola Milenkovic to commit 2+ fouls N Forest vs Liverpool at 4/1 (bet365)

1pt Kevin 1+ shot on target from outside the box in Sunderland vs Fulham at 10/3 (bet365)

Sunday 16:30 - Tottenham vs Arsenal

1pt A red card in the match at 4/1 (Sky Bet)

0.75pt Dominic Solanke to be carded at 13/2 (Betway)

Monday 20:00 - Everton vs Man Utd

1pt Bruno Fernandes 1+ assist at 3/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Crystal Palace vs Wolves

This is a massive game for Crystal Palace. They head into the weekend eight points above the drop zone and likely needing only a couple more wins to secure their safety, and this is a great opportunity for them to bag one of them.

But they continue to struggle. Defeat to Burnley despite being 2-0 up was a shocker, and they could only manage a draw away in Bosnia against Zrinjski on Thursday despite being 3/10 to win. All is still not right with the Eagles, and Wolves are a tough nut to crack now, losing just three of their last nine.

The bet here though has to be cards given Tom Kirk is the man with the whistle. He's averaged 4.46 cards per game this season and is fresh from a seven-card game in the FA Cup, while the last Premier League game he reffed was Wolves' visit to Everton which saw five yellows and two reds.

So, we simply have to back JORGEN STRAND LARSEN TO BE CARDED against his former team at a whopping 10/1. He will be bang up for this against his former employers, where he felt he was mistreated, and has been carded in two of his three starts since moving to Palace.

The caveat here is that Larsen may not start from the off having played 87 minutes in Bosnia in midweek, but I suspect he'll enter the fray at some point which means this will have a chance.

Jorgen Strand Larsen will be bang up for this game against his former team

He's playing like a man with a point to prove, throwing his weight around and contesting for a lot of duels, which has resulted in him making three fouls against Brighton, two against Burnley and two against Zrinjski. Add in the narrative and he should not be priced as the least-likely player to be carded in this match on Sunday.

We'll also back WILL HUGHES TO BE CARDED at 16/5, with it likely he comes into midfield to give one of Adam Wharton or Daichi Kamada a rest. He's been carded five times in the league this season at an average of 0.39 per 90, making this price value.

Hughes was booked in his last start at Brighton and will be tasked with keeping tabs on Mateus Mane, who has drawn 2.46 fouls per 90.

Finally, given we have a good referee appointment we'll also back Wolves' midfielder ANDRE TO BE CARDED at 12/5. He's collected 11 cards in just 28 appearances this season in all competitions at an average of 0.46 per 90.

That makes the price on offer huge value, as does the fact he'll likely be up against two of Ismaila Sarr, Yeremi Pino, Brennan Johnson and Evann Guessand, who are all excellent in transition.

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 15:50 GMT (20/02/26)

Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool

Well this game all of a sudden looks a tough one to call. Liverpool have been flying of late, looking much more like the team we would expect, and I was leaning towards backing them at 17/20. But then Nottingham Forest put in a dominant display away at Fenerbache in midweek, with Vitor Pereira getting an immediate tune out of them.

Forest's 3-0 win was quite something and the manner of the performance suggested it was no fluke. They won the shot count 23-6, shots on target 7-2, big chances 4-1 and xG battle 2.74-0.48 in the backyard of a decent team. Forest were excellent. It was arguably their best display of the season.

The beauty about the scoreline is that it likely means Forest, who are in a relegation battle, should be able to rest starters in next week's second leg, so we should anticipate a full-strength team here as they try to pull clear of trouble. Suddenly they looking tempting at 17/5 to win, I have to admit.

But I can't get suckered in by one performance, so we'll leave the 1X2 and go foul-hunting, where NIKOLA MILENKOVIC TO COMMIT 1+ FOUL looks large at 4/5. Pereira wants his side to be aggressive out of possession, and that happens all over the pitch.

During his time at Wolves, between December 2024 and November 2025, only Bournemouth committed more fouls per game than the Old Gold. Forest so far this season rank mid-table for fouls committed (10.5 per game), but the appointment of Pereira could see this increase drastically - they made 14 in midweek.

It's also interesting that five heavily-used centre-backs under Pereira at Wolves all averaged nearly a foul per 90, with Ladislav Krejci up at a whopping 1.86 per 90, which bodes well for this bet.

Milenkovic made two of those 14 in midweek against Fenerbache, as did his centre-back partner Murillo, with both asked to engage and be aggressive with opposing forwards. Liverpool's forward line are slippery, quick and technical, which looks a recipe for success with this angle.

Under Sean Dyche, the Serbian was still pretty forthcoming with fouls, making at least one in 11 of his last 20, committing 17 in total over that span. Factor in the increased emphasis on engaging high brought by Pereira, and the 4/5 for one foul here looks big.

He's 4/1 for 2+ FOULS COMMITTED, and we'll have a smaller bet on that too, with it landing in five of his last 20 including Pereira's debut in midweek.

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Odds correct at 15:50 GMT (20/02/26)

Sunderland vs Fulham

Craig Pawson is the man with the whistle here, which, despite his flurry of late cards including a ridiculous red in Liverpool vs Manchester City in his last outing, immediately has me swerving cards.

These two sides look set for mid-table finishes, with both likely to have a proper go at winning the FA Cup. This game could be fun then, especially as Sunderland are no longer protecting an unbeaten home record this season.

Hopefully Fulham's KEVIN gets a start this weekend, with the Brazilian winger an eye-catcher for his shooting positions. In the Premier League he has taken 21 shots in 860 minutes, with 13 of those coming from distance and seven hitting the target.

That's a shot on target from outside the box per 90 average of 0.73 which is high, and against a Sunderland team who have conceded the third most shots this season (14.5 per game), and the second most from outside the box, we'll chance Fulham's young winger to have 1+ SHOT ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX at 10/3.

This bet has won in three of his last five league starts, including the reverse game against Sunderland, so let's hope he gets the nod here. At the time of writing there were no 'shot from outside the box' markets up with Sky Bet, Betfair or Paddy Power, and it goes without saying that should Kevin be anywhere in the range of 4/5 for 1+ in that market then that would rate solid value.

Score prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Odds correct at 15:50 GMT (20/02/26)

Tottenham vs Arsenal

Arsenal are a team on the edge. They can feel the title slipping away. Results aren't going their way, City are breathing down their necks and the pressure is ramping up. We are seeing more petulance, more desperation, and a realisation that they could well be one game away from 'bottling' the league.

The last thing they need is a North London derby against a Tottenham team that will have a new lease of life under new manager Igor Tudor, who will have his players champing at the bit after 10 days of game planning and instilling a strength and physicality to a Spurs team who have had a soft underbelly for a while.

It really could explode this one, especially with what's at stake for both teams, with Arsenal looking for a title and Spurs looking to avoid the drop, and both really wanting to inflict damage on each other.

I think A RED CARD IN THE MATCH is a real runner at 4/1. We have all the ingredients for this to be a high-card game, and should it be getting away from one or the other, expect things to get spiky. It is a shame Cristian Romero isn't on the field, as his red card price would have appealed.

Referee Peter Bankes has flashed three reds in 18 league games and is averaging 4.0 cards per game so is a decent appointment should things start bubbling. He was in charge of the Tyne-Wear derby earlier this season and brandished nine cards.

Dominic Solanke looks a big price for a card

With bookings fancied we'll also chance DOMINIC SOLANKE TO BE CARDED at a huge 13/2, a price which means only two players are ranked as less likely to be carded by the bookies.

He's not a prolific card-collector in the slightest, but he does commit a lot of fouls. In his five starts this season the Englishman has committed eight fouls and has been carded once, so with Spurs expected to be bang up for this, fresh as daisies having not played for 12 days and ready to attack this game with more aggression and physicality, he looks worth a swing at a big price.

Score prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Odds correct at 15:50 GMT (20/02/26)

Everton vs Manchester United

BRUNO FERNANDES has gone two games without an assist, but that's not stopping us from going back in and backing him 1+ ASSIST here at 3/1.

The Manchester United captain leads the league for assists this season with 12, and prior to his two-match assist-less run he had provided at least one goal in five straight games and eight of his previous 10.

Since Michael Carrick has been appointed and Bruno has been pushed further forward he's creating over one chance more per 90, up from 3.1 to 4.4, and his xA per 90 is up from 0.28 to 0.32.

Against Spurs he created six chances equating to 0.51 xA, while against West Ham he made four chances for teammates equating to 0.26 xA.

Whilever he has this clinical supporting cast in forward areas, the likes of Bryan Mbeumo, Matheus Cunha and Benjamin Sesko, his assist prices are always worth taking when this big.

Let's not forget that ahead of the away game with West Ham he was 6/4 for an assist, so the jump to 3s here is big.

Everton are winless in five at home and have conceded nine goals in that time so are far from watertight, while United's process has been really strong since Carrick came in.

Let's hope Fernandes gets back on the assist train on Monday.

Score prediction: Everton 1-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Already advised

Football betting tips: Premier League

Saturday 15:00

1pt Lemare Bogarde to be carded in Aston Villa vs Leeds at 9/2 (Betway)

1pt James Justin to be carded in Aston Villa vs Leeds at 13/2 (Betway)

1pt Jan Paul van Hecke to be carded in Brentford vs Brighton at 3/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

2.5pts Cole Palmer to score anytime in Chelsea vs Burnley at evens (Sky Bet)

0.75pts Cole Palmer to score 2+ goals in Chelsea vs Burnley at 5/1 (Sky Bet)

0.25pts Cole Palmer to score 3+ goals in Chelsea vs Burnley at 22/1 (Sky Bet)

Saturday 17:30 - West Ham vs Bournemouth

2.5pts Crysencio Summerville 1+ shot on target at 6/5 (bet365)

0.5pt Crysencio Summerville 2+ shots on target at 7/1 (bet365)

0.25pt Crysencio Summerville 3+ shots on target at 25/1 (Boylesports, Betway)

Saturday 20:00 - Man City vs Newcastle

2pts Anthony Gordon 1+ shot on target at evens (bet365)

1pt Bernardo Silva to be carded at 7/2 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

Aston Villa vs Leeds

"Bizot. Marco Bizot. Marco Bizot. Time over."

Well, it probably is time over for the Dutch goalkeeper at Villa after his major error last week meant an FA Cup exit. He won't be playing here, which should fill backers of Aston Villa at 10/11 with more confidence.

Unai Emery's men have been solid at home, Leeds have struggled away, so a home win does look a bit of value. Instead I want to keep hammering the angle of Villa's left-side drawing fouls and cards.

Last week, right-back Kieran Trippier wasn't carded for Newcastle but right-sided-centre-back Malick Thiaw was. Four of the last seven right-centre-backs to have faced Villa have been carded, while five of the last seven right-backs have had their names taken.

With Leeds playing a back three, the right-sided-centre-back JAMES JUSTIN fits both categories at times, and looks a huge price of 13/2 TO BE CARDED as a result. He's only been carded twice this season, but did collect one in his last game at Chelsea, and this is more about the opposition he's facing here.

We'll also flip it and back Aston Villa's right-back to be carded here too, with Leeds seeing three opposing right-backs get booked in their last five league games due to the roaming of Brenden Aaronson in the left channel, and Gabriel Gudmundsson's forward runs.

Matty Cash is a doubt for the game, meaning we'll likely see LEMARE BOGARDE at right-back and he's 9/2 TO BE CARDED. He's been carded five times in just 662 minutes of Premier League action this season (0.68 per 90), and has picked up seven cards in all competitions at an average of 0.49 per 90.

Michael Oliver isn't the most ideal appointment, averaging 3.33 cards per game this season, but he has started throwing cards more frequently of late, averaging 3.8 cards per game over his last 10, while he has shown at least four cards in four of his last six.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 14:00 GMT (19/02/26)

Brentford vs Brighton

What is happening to Brighton? They are having a very poor season by their standards and it will likely cost Fabian Hurzeler his job. They have won just one of their last 13 league games, a home victory over Burnley, and were dumped out of the FA Cup at Anfield last Saturday.

It seems unlikely this run will continue and they slip into the relegation places, the Seagulls entering gameweek 27 seven points above the drop zone, but you never know, and a trip to Brentford will not be easy.

The Bees are flying at the moment, fresh off an FA Cup win and collecting seven points from three league games against Arsenal (h), Aston Villa (a) and Newcastle (a). The even-money about the hosts really did tempt me, but I'm heading down the cards route with this looking like a bad match-up for Brighton.

Jan Paul van Hecke was carded at Aston Villa with frustrations boiling over

That's because the Bees are happy to contain and counter, something they will be afforded the opportunity to do, and it could mean for a very stretched game with a lot of space. That spells trouble for JAN PAUL VAN HECKE, and at 3/1 we'll back him TO BE CARDED.

The Dutchman will be tasked with keeping tabs on some dangerous Bees forwards, notably Igor Thiago who is a handful, but also the lively Dango Ouattara and rapid Kevin Schade, who returns from injury. Van Hecke has been carded eight times across all competitions this season, and has collected five in his last eight starts.

Jarred Gillet is the man with the whistle, and he's averaged 3.63 cards per game this season so represents a decent enough appointment.

Score prediction: Brentford 3-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)

Odds correct at 14:00 GMT (19/02/26)

Chelsea vs Burnley

Chelsea rotated last week and with the depth they have, comfortably made it through in the FA Cup. We should see some big-hitters restored for this home game against Burnley, including COLE PALMER, who should be backed at even-money TO SCORE ANYTIME.

He's bagged six goals in his last seven league starts at an average of 0.96 goals per 90, with his xG per 90 also at 0.96 in that time. Hilariously, five of those six goals have been penalties, which explains the lofty xG average, but given Chelsea have won the second most penalties in the league and opponents Burnley have conceded the second most penalties this season, another spot-kick wouldn't be a surprise.

The Englishman is slowly getting back to his best after an injury lay-off, with his non-penalty xG per 90 over the last seven standing at 0.32, so he's still getting open-play chances, and he'll get plenty against a wide-open Burnley.

Scott Parker's men have conceded the most away goals (2.46 per game) and most expected goals away from home (2.52 per game), so Chelsea could rack up a score here, which increases the chances of Palmer finding the net.

He's also scored nine braces or better since joining Chelsea, including recently against bottom side Wolves, so we'll also chance PALMER TO SCORE 2+ GOALS at 9/2, while he's fired four hat-tricks too so we can't leave PALMER TO SCORE 3+ unbacked at 22/1 just in case.

Score prediction: Chelsea 4-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Odds correct at 13:00 GMT (19/02/26)

West Ham vs Bournemouth

West Ham have a very real chance of survival given their recent performances, and one player has come to the fore - CRYSENCIO SUMMERVILLE.

The Dutchman has scored in four of his side's last five league games, and in six of their last seven in all competitions, while he has landed 1+ SHOT ON TARGET in all of his last eight, so we simply have to back a repeat here at a huge 6/5.

Summerville is shot happy, but has been getting into really dangerous areas which has led to him hitting the target more often.

Add in the fact the Hammers are playing more attack-minded football, and opponents Bournemouth concede a load of shots (236 = 16.9 per game), shots on target (92 = 6.57 per game) and goals (31) away from home, and this price looks massive.

We'll also chance SUMMERVILLE 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET at 7/1 too given how many attempts and attempts on target the Cherries face on their travels, with this bet landing in two of his last seven. And, given how open this game could become and how often West Ham will give him the ball, we'll have a sprinkle on SUMMERVILLE 3+ SHOTS ON TARGET too.

High-volume-shooter Iliman Ndiaye fired two shots on target for Everton in Bournemouth's last away game, Mateus Mane had two on target before that for Wolves, and Anthony Gordon has three on target as a late sub in the Cherries' FA Cup exit at Newcastle, highlighting that the higher lines are worth taking here.

Score prediction: West Ham 2-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Manchester City vs Newcastle

This will be the fourth meeting of the season between Manchester City and Newcastle, with the Magpies winning the league clash and City winning both Carabao Cup matches. Pep Guardiola's side are strongly fancied to make it a hat-trick here, which makes sense given their impressive run of form.

It's six wins in seven for the Cityzens, whose only blemish came at Tottenham when throwing away a 2-0 lead. They will be right at it here, especially as they have watched Arsenal drop points in back-to-back games.

Newcastle have turned a corner though, winning all of their last three, all away from home. They start the weekend in 10th and in need of a good run of form to get back into the European shake up.

Tensions are always high when these teams meet, with some big card counts, and that looks a decent starting point here. Joelinton was my first port of call as he's been booked in six of his last seven games against Manchester City but he's 7/4, which is a tad too short, but I was pleasantly surprised to see BERNARDO SILVA TO BE CARDED available at 7/2.

He is City's most carded player this season with 11 in all competitions at an average of 0.40 per 90, making the price on offer huge value. Factor in he's been booked in three of the last four head-to-heads with Newcastle and this looks a cracking bet.

Silva is missing his usual sparring partner Bruno Guimaraes, but Newcastle's midfield is dynamic enough to cause him problems, and Joelinton could well be back which would be a huge plus. I wouldn't put anyone off the Silva-Joelinton double at around 9/1.

ANTHONY GORDON had a big night in Azerbaijan in midweek, scoring four times, and he looks overpriced at evens to have 1+ SHOT ON TARGET. It's highly likely with the Champions League tie all but over that Eddie Howe elects to play a full strength team here, which would see Gordon start.

Anthony Gordon celebrates scoring four in midweek

Given he's been playing as a striker of late, with Nick Woltemade playing in midfield, this bet should have a great chance against a City team who continue to be defensively vulnerable.

Gordon will be full of confidence after his four-goal-haul, a game he also took six shots on target, with the Englishman averaging 1.33 shots on target per 90 across all competitions this term.

Manchester City have faced 12.5 shots and 4.33 shots on target per game over their last six in the league, so are far from water-tight.

Score prediction: Manchester City 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 15:50 GMT (19/02/26)

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