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Jake's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 25/26 Matchday 20

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Fri January 02, 2026 · 4h ago

Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 239.50pts | Returned 279.85pts | P/L +40.35pts | ROI 16.8%

Football betting tips: Premier League

Saturday 12:30 - Aston Villa vs N Forest

1pt Boubacar Kamara to be carded at 3/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Elliot Anderson to be carded at 3/1 (bet365)

Saturday 15:00

1.5pts Yasin Ayari 3+ total shots in Brighton vs Burnley at 2/1 (bet365)

0.5pts Yasin Ayari 4+ total shots in Brighton vs Burnley at 5/1 (bet365)

0.5pt Yerson Mosquera to score anytime in Wolves vs West Ham at 12/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

0.5pt Santiago Bueno to score anytime in Wolves vs West Ham at 14/1 (General)

Saturday 17:30 - Bournemouth vs Arsenal

0.75pt Gabriel Magalhaes to score anytime at 8/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.75pt Jurrien Timber to score anytime at 17/2 (Sky Bet)

Sunday 12:30 - Leeds vs Manchester United

1.5pts Leeds to win at 9/5 (Betfred)

0.5pt Jaka Bijol to score anytime at 14/1 (Betway)

0.5pt Pascal Struijk to score anytime at 12/1 (Betway)

  • ***More of Sunday's bets to follow

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Well after a dull few weeks we've exploded into life. A +10.8pt profit in matchday 19 to follow up +0.51pt and +0.14pt editions has us up above +40pts for the season.

I'd be happy with that come the end of the campaign but now is not the time to take the foot off the gas.

This week features same familiar names and angles, and we'll be hoping they deliver for us again.

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest

Aston Villa's bubble was burst on Tuesday as they were thrashed by Arsenal 4-1, and they'll be looking to bounce back against an out of form Nottingham Forest side. Sean Dyche's men have lost five of their last seven in the league and remain the side closest to the drop zone.

Betting-wise, with Simon Hooper the man with the whistle here we have to chance cards. The referee has averaged 4.54 cards per game in the Premier League this season, so we'll back BOUBACAR KAMARA and ELLIOT ANDERSON as singles, both priced at 3/1.

Kamara served a suspension in midweek after accumulating five yellows this season at an average of 0.36 per 90. He'll be up against Forest's Morgan Gibbs-White and Anderson himself, the latter winning 2.42 fouls per 90.

Anderson has been carded four times in the league this term, but has picked up a card in four of his last nine appearances in all competitions. He's averaging 1.42 fouls committed per 90 and will be tasked with helping to contain Morgan Rogers, John McGinn and Youri Tielemans, three excellent foul drawers.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 12:00 (02/01/26)

Brighton vs Burnley

Brighton's YASIN AYARI delivered for us in midweek by firing three shots at West Ham, and we simply have to go back in against the second worst team in the league Burnley. He is much shorter for 2+ shots (4/6 - bet365), but we'll take 3+ TOTAL SHOTS at 2/1 and 4+ TOTAL SHOTS at 5/1.

The Swede is averaging 2.34 shots per 90 this season and has landed the 3+ bet in all of his last three starts, hitting 4+ in two of those. Over the course of the season, the 3+ has won in six of 14 starts (43% strikerate and implied odds of 13/10) and the 4+ has won in five of 14 (36% - 9/5), so both lines are value.

Even more so given the opponent. Five of the six games where the 3+ bet has won has come against sides who have sat deep and aimed to frustrate Brighton, a tactic Burnley will absolutely deploy here.

After Ayari fired three shots against a West Ham side who have conceded the second most shots in the league (294), he'll be ready to pull the trigger again as the side who have conceded the most shots in the division head to the Amex (298 - 15.7 per game).

Score prediction: Brighton 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Odds correct at 12:00 (02/01/26)

Wolves vs West Ham

It says a lot about West Ham that they head to the Premier League's only winless side, rock-bottom Wolves, and they are outsiders to win. It isn't really that much of a surprise either.

Since Nuno Espirito Santo took charge, the Hammers have collected the third fewest points, scored the seventh fewest goals and conceded the fourth most goals. The underlying data paints an even uglier picture.

Only Burnley (9.37) have collected fewer expected points than West Ham (12.65), and only the Clarets (29.5) and Bournemouth (25.5) have conceded more expected goals than the Hammers (25.2). Wolves haven't been much better mind, but don't rank in the top five in that time.

Rob Edwards' side have scored in four of their last five at least, and their last two goals have both come from set-pieces, an area of specialty for Edwards, and so with West Ham continuing to look vulnerable from dead ball situations, conceding from a corner in midweek, we'll take a big-priced goalscorer punt.

YERSON MOSQUERA and SANTIAGO BUENO look worth chancing to small stakes at 12/1 and 14/1 respectively, though the latter has a slight knock so do check team news before kick-off.

Mosquera has taken six shots this term at an average of 0.78 per 90 and fired two attempts against Manchester United last time out, while Bueno has only taken three shots all season but has scored twice, being on the end of two massive chances (both 0.75 xG) from corners.

Score prediction: Wolves 1-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Odds correct at 12:00 (02/01/26)

Bournemouth vs Arsenal

Arsenal flexed their muscles on Tuesday with a dismantling of a red-hot Aston Villa, and the Gunners won't be scared of a trip to a Bournemouth side winless in 10 league games.

The Cherries do have the capability to score goals, but simply cannot keep them out. They have shipped 24 times in that winless run.

Set-pieces have become an issue too, with the Cherries conceding seven goals from set-pieces in their last eight league matches, so with the dead-ball kings in town, we should get involved accordingly.

Two players standout at the same 17/2 price TO SCORE ANYTIME - GABRIEL MAGALHAES and JURRIEN TIMBER.

Gabriel came back into the starting XI on Tuesday after an injury lay off and capped his return with his third goal of the season in all competitions. He's averaging a solid 0.12 xG per 90 and remains the Gunners' main set-piece threat.

Timber represents a set-piece and open-play threat, with his data this season simply fantastic. He too has three goals in all competitions this season and averaged 0.25 xG per 90 in the Premier League.

That latter figure ranks him as Arsenal's fifth biggest attacking threat in 25/26, and is a bigger average than the likes of Jarrod Bowen, Florian Wirtz, Rayan Cherki and Morgan Rogers this term.

Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-3 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Odds correct at 12:00 (02/01/26)

Leeds vs Manchester United

Give me LEEDS TO WIN 9/5 all day here. It's an absolute no brainer in my mind, with the Whites criminally overpriced.

Not only are Daniel Farke's side on a good run of form (W2 D6) against a tough schedule, but their opponents Manchester United are thin on the ground in terms of numbers and have been really struggling. I mean, they drew with Wolves last time out...

It's three home wins in five for Leeds, with their last four at Elland Road seeing them play a red-hot Aston Villa, Club World Cup winners Chelsea, Premier League champions Liverpool and FA Cup winners Crystal Palace.

The data surrounding Leeds in home games is pretty remarkable too, with only Arsenal and Manchester City having accumulated more expected points per gam than the Whites (2.08).

Averaging 1.95 xGF and 1.01 xGA per game is a fantastic process, while Manchester United rank as the 10th best away side having won just three of nine.

Add in the fact the crowd will be bang up for this and there is no reason in my mind that Leeds should be second favourites for this one. I expect they'll be closer to 7/5 come kick-off.

We'll also wade back in on Leeds centre-back scorers too, with JAKA BIJOL and PASCAL STRUIJK worth chancing TO SCORE ANYTIME at 14/1 and 12/1 respectively with Betway (12/1 Bijol available with Sky Bet and 11/1 Struijk available on Coral and Ladbrokes - all fine).

Bijol landed us a shot last week at Liverpool and is a massive threat given his size, with the Slovenian starting to flex his attacking muscles by firing five shots in his last seven matches - including a goal at home to Chelsea.

Struijk hasn't yet scored but has gone very close on multiple occasions, taking 1.06 shots per 90 and averaging 0.10 xG per 90. He had three shots from corners in their last home game against Crystal Palace too.

Manchester United have conceded nine goals from set-pieces this season and 8.30 xGA (fifth-most), including against Wolves last time out.

Score prediction: Leeds 2-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

Odds correct at 12:30 (02/01/26)

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