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Jake's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 25/26 Matchday 16

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Sat December 13, 2025 · 16h ago

Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 171.00pts | Returned 201.75pts | P/L +30.75pts | ROI 18%

Football betting tips: Premier League

Sunday 14:00 - C Palace vs Man City

1.5pts Crystal Palace or Draw at evens (Sky Bet)

Sunday 14:00 - N Forest vs Tottenham

1pt Igor Jesus to score anytime at 12/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt Igor Jesus to score a header at 17/2 (bet365)

Sunday 14:00 - Sunderland vs Newcastle

1pt Jacob Ramsey to be carded at 9/2 (bet365)

0.5pt Xhaka, Sadiki and Guimaraes all carded at 18/1 (Betfair)

Sunday 14:00 - West Ham vs Aston Villa

1pt Morgan Rogers 1+ shots on target outside the box at 9/4 (bet365)

1pt Youri Tielemans 1+ shots on target outside the box at 3/1 (bet365)

Sunday 16:30 - Brentford vs Leeds

2pts Gabriel Gudmunsson to win 2+ fouls at 6/5 (Sky Bet, bet365)

Monday 20:00 - Man Utd vs Bournemouth

2pts Tyler Adams to be carded at 21/10 (William Hill)

0.5pt Bryan Mbeumo to be carded at 6/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City

I could be way off base here but I can't be backing Manchester City at odds-on away from home against a good team.

Last season on the road against the Premier League's top 12, Pep Guardiola's side posted a W2 D3 L6 record, with their two wins coming in the very first game of the season (at Chelsea) and the very last game of the campaign (at Fulham).

That trend has continued into this term, with City posting a W2 D1 L3 record away from home so far against the same sample of opponents, losing at Brighton, Aston Villa and Newcastle, squeaking to wins against Brentford (1-0) and Fulham (5-4).

Despite CRYSTAL PALACE playing in the Europa Conference League on Thursday, a comfortable win against Shelbourne, I'll happily take them to once again frustrate City, and back them in the DOUBLE CHANCE market at even money.

The Eagles, who sit fourth in both the actual and expected table, are a serious side, and having bested Guardiola's men in the FA Cup final, and held them at Selhurst Park last season, they can at the very least avoid defeat on Sunday.

Oliver Glasner's side have posted a very strong process in front of their own fans, averaging 2.08 xGF and 1.34 xGA per game, and have been unfortunate not to win more than they have, but with City having failed to win 77% of their away games against top-12 sides since the start of last season, we simply have to back the hosts to get a result.

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Odds correct at 12:00 (12/12/25)

Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham

Are Tottenham back? A miserable run of form (W1 D2 L5) has been followed by back-to-back wins with accompanying clean sheets, hinting that they've turned the corner. But, we need to see more to believe it.

Away from home Thomas Frank's side have been good in terms of results (W4 D2 L1) but poor in terms of data (11th in away xP table) and they have allowed 1.50 xGA per game on their travels. They are vulnerable, and Nottingham Forest look in a good place to take advantage.

Unfortunately, the market agrees, with Forest the 13/8 favourites to win on Sunday, so to get them onside we'll back their striker and top scorer across all competitions, IGOR JESUS, TO SCORE ANYTIME at 12/5.

The Brazilian has just one goal to his name in the Premier League, that sole strike coming very recently, but has been knocking on the door all season, and has scored four in five on the continent - including the winner on Thursday - and two in the Carabao Cup. Across all competitions, Jesus has averaged 0.59 xG per 90, making the price available huge value in my book.

And given that 17 of his 26 shots (65%) in the Premier League have come from headers, we'll also back him TO SCORE A HEADER at 17/2 to smaller stakes. He already has a headed goal in the Europa League.

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

Odds correct at 12:00 (12/12/25)

Sunderland vs Newcastle

This one could explode. Two bitter rivals who haven't faced each other in a league game since 2016 square-off with bragging rights the order of the day.

Sunderland have been excellent on the own patch this season and remain unbeaten, a run they desperately won't want to be ended by Newcastle of all teams. The Magpies have been poor away from home in 25/26 and had to play away in Europe in midweek. I would lean towards Sunderland, but we have to delve into the card markets.

The referee here is Peter Bankes and he's got the capability to go mental with the cards. This season alone he's already had three games of five cards, one of six and two reds, and one of eight. Across the last three seasons Bankes has had 26 games of 5+ cards in 54 outings.

So, with emotions and pride through the roof, a good referee appointment and good teams for cards, it's no surprise that the bookies have shortened everything card-related.

Individual players are horrifically short to be carded. GRANIT XHAKA (7/4), NOAH SADIKI (2/1) and BRUNO GUIMARAES (2/1) are all a tad short to back as singles, but we'll take a big old swing and back them in a treble at 18/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair.

Xhaka and Sadiki both have four cards to their name this season, while Guimaraes has three, and I can see this game being a midfield scrap which puts all of them in the midst of things.

The only player who looks value to me as a single TO BE CARDED in the midfield battle is JACOB RAMSEY at 9/2. The caveat here is that we aren't sure whether he'll start the game, but he has been part of the weekend rotation in the last three games, starting on the bench in midweek matches.

He is a very front-foot, foul-heavy midfielder who in limited minutes has committed 1.54 fouls per 90 and already has two yellow cards in the Premier League despite just 298 minutes of action. It goes without saying that should he not start, keep an eye out for his in-play price to be card should he enter the fray.

Score prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Odds correct at 12:00 (12/12/25)

West Ham vs Aston Villa

Is there any stopping Aston Villa? Unai Emery's side are absolutely flying right now, putting together a run of form seldom seen from a non-elite side from any country. The Villans have won 14 of their last 16 games in all competitions, including all of the last eight.

If that wasn't encouraging enough for Emery and Villa fans, the fact that they have now started to play like a side who can sustain such form is even more reason to be excited. Having lost the xG battle in nine of their first 12 league games, Villa have won it convincingly in all of their last three, which includes a tricky trip to Brighton and a home game against title-favourites Arsenal.

They head to a West Ham side who's underlying data has remained poor despite Nuno Espirito's arrival. Under the Portuguese coach only Burnley have collected fewer expected points (8.3) and allowed more xGA than the Hammers (2.15 per game).

Only Sunderland have conceded more shots than West Ham since Nuno was appointed, which makes sense given how Nuno likes to set up his teams to sit in and counter, and that's the train of thought for a couple of bets here.

Aston Villa are a team who don't need any extra encouragement to shoot from distance. They have scored the most goals from outside the box (9) in the league this season, so we'll chance a few players to have 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX.

At the time of writing there are no 'shots outside the box' markets available, but they could appear closer to kick-off.

We'll be taking both MORGAN ROGERS and YOURI TIELEMANS to oblige for us at 9/4 and 3/1 respectively. Rogers has taken 27 shots across all competitions this season with 13 of those (18%) coming from outside the box. He's hit the target with eight (62%) attempts from range, averaging 0.42 shots on target from outside the box per 90.

Two of his three goals this season have come from outside the penalty area, and he is on free-kick duty which is a bonus for us here. He's 11/1 with bet365 to score from outside the box for those interested.

As for Tielemans, he loves a pop from range and scored from beyond the 18-yard line against Basel in midweek. In limited minutes due to an injury lay-off, the Belgian has taken 10 of his 16 shots from distance this season, with five hitting the target. He's averaging 0.63 shots on target from outside the box per 90 this season so looks overpriced against a team willing to allow such attempts.

Tielemans is 20/1 to score from outside the box for those wanting to chance their arm.

Score prediction: West Ham 1-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct at 14:30 (12/12/25)

Brentford vs Leeds

Brentford look an appetising price at first glance, generally 19/20, but despite Leeds' shocking away form, their performances since switching to a back five have been impressive against some good teams.

In fact, since making the change at half-time against Manchester City, Leeds have won by an aggregate of 8-5 against City, Chelsea and Liverpool. Granted two of those were at home but that run is enough to have me putting on the skids of a hefty pro-Bees bet.

Instead, we'll take Leeds wing-back GABRIEL GUDMUNSSON TO WIN 2+ FOULS at 6/5. The Swede was pretty good at winning fouls before moving from left-back to left-wing-back, but in three games in the new system he has gone up a notch.

We was drawing 1.44 fouls per 90 as a left-back but that figure is now up to 3.14 as he has found himself higher up the pitch. All in all this bet has won in half of his 14 starts this season, and Brentford's wingers can be extremely overzealous in their tackles.

Score prediction: Brentford 2-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 15:00 (12/12/25)

Manchester United vs Bournemouth

Cards look the way in on Monday night with Simon Hooper in charge of proceedings. The whistleblower has flashed an average of 4.89 cards per game in the top flight this season, making him the second most card-happy ref in the league.

Bournemouth are of course an obliging team when it comes to fouls and cards, and while it may seem a short price, I think we simply have to back TYLER ADAMS TO BE CARDED at 21/10 given his record, the ref and the opponent.

The American missed the last league game through suspension having already accumulated five yellow cards which tells you all you need to know about his game, averaging 0.38 cards per 90 this term. Last season he finished with seven yellows (0.32 per 90) so is a serial offender.

On Monday he faces a team who are masters at drawing fouls and cards from opposing midfielders. Manchester United's two number 10s, usually Matheus Cunha (2.22 fouls won per 90) and Bryan Mbeumo (1.23), combined with Bruno Fernandes (1.54) have seen an opposing midfielder booked in nine of 15 outings this season, putting Adams in the firing line.

His midfield partner, Alex Scott, has only been carded twice this season and is committing fewer fouls per 90 than Adams, so it is a surprise to see him priced at 13/8 which is way too short.

We'll also take a wild swing at BRYAN MBEUMO TO BE CARDED at a huge 6/1. The Cameroonian isn't the dirtiest of players generally but something has come over him the last month, as he's been booked in three of his last four appearances. His foul numbers have spiked and against a fast and dynamic Bournemouth team, he could go to AFCON with yet another card.

Score prediction: Manchester United 2-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 16:10 (12/12/25)

Already recommended

Saturday 15:00 - Chelsea vs Everton

1pt Reece James to be carded at 5/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Malo Gusto to be carded at 19/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Saturday 15:00 - Liverpool vs Brighton

0.5pt Maxim De Cuyper to score anytime at 17/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt Maxim De Cuyper 1+ assist at 17/2 (William Hill)

Saturday 15:00 double

0.5pt Everton and Brighton to win draw no bet at 12.7/1 (Paddy Power)

Saturday 17:30 - Burnley vs Fulham

1pt Harry Wilson 1+ shots on target outside the box at 2/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

Saturday 20:00 - Arsenal vs Wolves

1pt Viktor Gyokeres to score 2+ goals at 5/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)

Chelsea vs Everton

Things have all gone a bit 'Pete Tongue' for Chelsea since a good display again Arsenal. Defeat to Leeds, a draw at Bournemouth and defeat at Atalanta in the Champions League have meant their good run of form is now a distant memory.

They are now fifth in the league table, eight points behind Arsenal and just one point above Saturday's visitors Everton, who head to Stamford Bridge having won four of their last five. This will be a tough game for the Blues who can't afford to slip up again.

Things could get lively here, and with these two sides both ranking in the top five for cards this season (both 34 - 2.27 per game), cards look a route to go down and I'm again going to be hoping our good friend Jack Grealish can help deliver.

We'll back both MALO GUSTO and REECE JAMES TO BE CARDED as singles here at big prices, with Grealish drawing a lot of cards from opposing right-backs and right central midfielders - where James is expected to line up on Saturday.

In 10 of Grealish's 13 league starts for Everton, at least one of the RB or RCM has been booked, with six booked of each and both booked in the same game on two occasions (Crystal Palace and West Ham).

Gusto and James aren't exactly known for their high card records, but they don't come up against a player as direct and dangerous as Grealish. Gusto has been sent off already this season at Nottingham Forest and was booked in the Champions League recently against Barcelona, while James has three cards to his name.

The referee is Thomas Bramall and he's averaged 3.6 cards per game but can be wild, and has recently refereed both these sides, showing eight yellows and a red as Chelsea beat Wolves and five yellows when Everton drew at Sunderland.

Score prediction: Chelsea 1-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)

Odds correct at 15:00 (11/12/25)

Liverpool vs Brighton

Don't be surprised if Liverpool's latest win in Europe is another false dawn. Yes, they were good against Inter, but can they back it up? The last time they were excellent on the continent, beating Real Madrid, they followed that up with an abysmal display and result at Manchester City.

Anfield isn't the fortress it was last season. The Reds have won just two of their last seven home games across all competitions, losing four times, so Brighton, who always play their best stuff against the best teams, will fancy their chances.

With that in mind, the way Liverpool have been defending of late, combined with how well Brighton attack the better teams, I've come down on a player playing out of position for the Seagulls - MAXIM DE CUYPER.

The left-back by trade has been playing as a left winger of late due to the absence of Kaoru Mitoma, and he's been making a mark. In three games since the switch he's scored once and created an abundance of chances equating to 1.2 expected assists (xA).

Those three starts on the left wing, while a small sample size, have delivered averages of 0.23 xG and 0.31 xA per 90, so at 17/2 apiece, we'll split stakes on him TO SCORE ANYTIME and provide 1+ ASSISTS.

Backing it in this manner represents more value than if backing the 18/5 in the to score or assist market. Three opposing left wingers have registered a goal involvement in Liverpool's last seven outings.

Score prediction: Liverpool 1-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Odds correct at 15:00 (11/12/25)

Burnley vs Fulham

What a thriller we get to watch at 5.30pm... Burnley are the worst team in the league, even if they aren't technically bottom of the table, while Fulham have been inconsistent this season.

I expect the Cottagers to get three points here but the bet I'm drawn to is HARRY WILSON 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET OUTSIDE THE BOX at 2/1.

Burnley are conceding the most shots (236 - 15.7 per game) and shots on target (78 - 5.2 per game) in the league this season so should give a red-hot Wilson ample opportunity to pull the trigger.

The Welsh winger has scored in three of his last six league games and is shooting on sight, averaging 2.46 shots per 90. He's averaging 0.91 shots from outside the box per 90, hitting the target with 50% of those at an average of 0.45 per 90.

That latter figure would imply blanket odds of 6/5 so the 2/1 looks massive, even more so when we factor in that Wilson has in fact registered more shots on target from outside the box (5) than inside the box (3) this season. He's 17/2 to score from outside the box too for those interested.

Score prediction: Burnley 0-2 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct at 16:00 (11/12/25)

Arsenal vs Wolves

'Flat-track bully'.

That's a phrase been used to describe VIKTOR GYOKERES since his arrival at Arsenal from Sporting Lisbon, with the discourse around him being that of one who feasts on the weak. In American sports they call it 'stat-padding'.

I think that's a tad harsh, but it's fair to say that he hasn't proved it wrong yet, scoring just four times in 13 appearances with all four goals coming against sides currently in the bottom five.

There could well be something in it then, and he'll be licking his lips heading into this weekend as he is in line to face bottom side Wolves who just shipped four goals and more than 4.0 xG at home to Manchester United.

We'll take a swing at GYOKERES TO SCORE 2+ GOALS at 5/1. He bagged a brace at home to Leeds early on this season, while he's also fired a brace in the Champions League at home to Atletico Madrid.

He fired 13 braces or better in Portugal last season against some woeful opponents and could continue to be the 'flat-track bully' and take a bite out of Wolves.

Score prediction: Arsenal 4-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 16:00 (11/12/25)

3pm double

I think we have to take on both favourites on Saturday too, who both played away in Europe in midweek, against two very good and dangerous outsiders. Chelsea have lost the xG battle in all of their last three and have only won three of seven at home in the league, while Everton are in great form, winning four of their last five.

Liverpool have lost four of their last seven at Anfield and Brighton always save their best for the better sides. While the Seagulls' away results haven't been impressive on the whole, they have won at Chelsea and do rank sixth for away expected points.

The DRAW NO BET DOUBLE pays 12.7/1 and we'll take a small swing at that. Those who want more security can back the double chance double at around 4/1, or those who want a big swing can take the win double at 24/1.

  • Note individual draw no bet prices are = Everton 14/5 and Brighton 13/5 = for settling purposes should one game result in a push and one a win.

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