Sporting Life
Jake Osgathorpe's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 24/25 Matchday 28

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Sun March 09, 2025 · 10M ago
  • Jake's Predictions (before this weekend): Staked 373.75pts | Returned 394.93pts | P/L +21.18pts | ROI 6%

Football betting tips: Premier League

1pt Under 3.5 cards in in Man Utd vs Arsenal (16:30) at 9/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

1pt Gabriel Magalhaes to score anytime in Man Utd vs Arsenal (16:30) at 9/1 (Betfair)

0.25pt Under 0.5 cards in Man Utd vs Arsenal (16:30) at 33/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

Manchester United vs Arsenal

Where to start with Manchester United? Not only are they just a bad team, but the importance of this game for the Red Devils is low.

United's only chance to salvage the worst season in recent history by winning the Europa League, and after a 1-1 draw in Spain against Real Sociedad in the first leg of their last 16 tie, Ruben Amorim has to be prioritising the second leg over this.

That is especially the case with the injury issues United have, as well as their lowly league position, which means ultimately that getting a result here means nothing to them other than a small bit of confidence.

Arsenal got a huge shot of confidence boost of their own in midweek when hitting seven past PSV, a result that also means their second leg is effectively a dead rubber so have no excuse for taking their foot off the gas this weekend.

Joe has already tipped up Arsenal to win at 3/4, and I would fully support everyone backing that, so I won't be playing a traditional 1X2 bets, and instead focusing on a goalscorer and a low card count.

United continue to have major issues defending set-pieces, conceding to Fulham centre-back Calvin Bassey from a corner last weekend, so I'll happily have a swing at GABRIEL MAGALHAES TO SCORE ANYTIME at what looks a generous 9/1.

The big Brazilian hasn't been much bigger than 7/1 all season long, so to get 9s in a favourable match-up looks enticing.

United have conceded 12 times from set-pieces in the league this season, with only Southampton (16) and Wolves (17) conceding more.

In terms of xGA from dead-ball situations, only Southampton (14.5) and Leicester (12.0) have allowed more than the Red Devils (10.2 - 0.38 per game).

Amorim has been in charge for 20 games against English opponents and United have conceded 13 times from set-pieces, with three of those coming against Arsenal in their two meetings across league and FA Cup.

Gabriel wasn't fit for the league meeting but scored in the latter, his last goal, but he's been knocking on the door, taking a shot in seven of 11 starts since, and should get some opportunities here.

I'll also take a swing at UNDER 3.5 CARDS at 9/5 as well as NO CARDS at 33/1.

Opposing cards is on the radar because Anthony Taylor is the man in the middle. Prior to his flurry in the FA Cup last weekend (six in 90 minutes), Taylor had been immense for under card backers.

In the 11 games before across all competitions, Taylor averaged just 1.54 cards per game, with Under 3.5 landing on nine occasions and Under 0.5 landing four times.

Referee Anthony Taylor

In total this season he's landed the Under 3.5 in 17 of 32 outings in all competitions, showing no cards in six of those. He really has been in a lenient mood, and one of his no card games came in Amorim's first in charge.

In fact the last three times he's reffed United he's landed the Under 3.5 on all occasions, showing just two yellows in the Manchester derby and one in United's win against Fulham.

Hopefully he's at his lenient best this weekend in a game that could be very one-sided as United prepare for midweek action and Arsenal cruise. Fingers crossed for a non-event.

Score prediction: Manchester United 0-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

We had a nice weekend off for this column last week, and it was needed after back-to-back losing editions.

The midweek round of action was only a small loss thanks to Will Hughes getting carded, but nonetheless we need a bounce back.

I thought it was a tricky looking slate this weekend in the props markets, especially Saturday, so have stuck to the more traditional ones.

Already advised

Saturday

1.5pts Under 3.0 Asian Goals in Forest vs Man City (12:30) at 20/23 (bet365)

2pts Both teams to score in Palace vs Ipswich (15:00) at 10/11 (General)

1.5pts Under 3.5 cards in Liverpool vs Southampton (15:00) at evens (bet365, William Hill)

1pt Yoane Wissa anytime in Brentford vs Aston Villa (17:30) at 15/8 (bet365)

1.5pts Everton to win draw no bet vs Wolves (20:00) at evens (Sky Bet, Betway)

Sunday

0.5pt Marc Cucurella to score anytime in Chelsea vs Leicester (14:00) at 23/2 (Unibet)

2.5pts Djed Spence to win 2+ fouls in Spurs vs Bournemouth (14:00) at 10/11 (Betfair)

1pt Justin Kluivert to be carded in Spurs vs Bournemouth (14:00) at 19/5 (Unibet)

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City

This is a pretty big game in the race for the top four, as third hosts fourth. I'm not expecting fireworks though, with Nottingham Forest expected to deploy a low-block in an attempt to frustrate Manchester City, but decreasing their own chances in attack.

Under 2.5 goals is priced at 13/10 and I wouldn't put anyone off that, but I'll take the extra security and back UNDER 3.0 on the ASIAN GOAL LINE. This bet provides us with a winner should the game finish with 0, 1 or 2 goals, and provides a push should the game end with exactly three goals.

Forest's recent home games against Liverpool and Arsenal are decent gauges as to how this match will go, with those contests finishing 1-1 and 0-0 respectively.

Nuno Espirito Santo's men have been very strong at home this term, posting a W7, D4, L2 record, with their success built upon a solid foundation. Only Arsenal (0.65 xGA per game) and Liverpool (0.85) have a better defensive process than Forest (0.98) when playing hosts.

Their attacking output (1.42 xGF per game) ranks only 13th best, and so those two figures combined goes a long way to explaining why Forest's home matches have been so low-scoring, averaging just 2.5 goals per game, going under the 2.5 line in eight of 13.

Across all competitions at the City Ground, this bet would have won in 11 of 16, only losing on three occasions.

City have the capability to make this a wide open encounter, with Pep Guardiola still not fully securing his side defensively, but it would be a surprise were this match to explode with goals.

Score prediction: Forest 1-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Brighton vs Fulham

Another big game in the race for European football as eighth-placed Brighton meet ninth-placed Fulham with the pair just one and two points off the top six respectively.

Picking a winner looks incredibly difficult with both in good form, and while my initial thought was to take Fulham's right-back, Timothy Castagne, to make 3+ tackles, the injury to Kaoru Mitoma made me grind to a halt.

Goals could be the way in, but it's a no bet for me.

Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Crystal Palace vs Ipswich

Ipswich have to go for broke soon. They are five points from safety with 11 games to go and haven't won in the league in 2025.

Defensively they have been all over the place, but Kieran McKenna's side haven't had an issue scoring goals, netting in all of their last seven in all competitions.

Away from home they have scored in 13 of 16, making BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE a solid bet at 10/11.

Palace have been firing in attack but also vulnerable in defence of late themselves, especially at home, with BTTS landing in nine of their last 10, only falling short when Oliver Glasner's side hosted League One Stockport in the FA Cup.

I'm keeping it at that for this game, a very simple selection, but those wanting a bigger price I wouldn't put you off the 9/4 for a Palace win and BTTS given the Eagles have won eight of their last 10.

Score prediction: Palace 3-1 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Liverpool vs Southampton

Top versus bottom. It's fair to say that in theory this should be a one-sided contest - even if Liverpool rotate.

Usually when matches are so one-sided we see a low card total, and Mark O'Haire has already tipped a cracking looking bet in his column in backing Liverpool not to collect a card.

I'm on similar lines here but will just back UNDER 3.5 CARDS at evens.

We have a good referee for this bet in Lewis Smith, who has averaged just 3.19 cards per game across all competitions this season.

In his last 10 outings, this bet has landed seven times, while both teams have cooled off in terms of cards.

It's been a struggle for Ivan Juric at Southampton

Southampton have stopped drawing them from their opponents (1-0-3-0-0-1-0 cards drawn in their last seven - thanks Mr. O'Haire for that data) while overall their games have gone Under 3.5 cards in six of 10 and four of their five most recent outings.

This should go the same way given the gulf in class between the teams, just like it did at Arsenal (3 cards).

Score prediction: Liverpool 3-0 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Brentford vs Aston Villa

I'm always keen to back against Aston Villa after a midweek Champions League match.

Unai Emery's men have won just one of their eight such matches this season, losing four, with that sole win coming way back in September at home to a then-hapless Wolves team.

Even if this was on the back of a free week for Villa, their away record is extremely uninspiring (W4, D2, L7), collecting the fifth fewest points (14) on the road and conceding the fourth most goals (27 - 2.08 per game).

Brentford are a backable price in my mind at 11/8, though Villa's injury room is clearing and they have an abundance of attacking talent to rotate, so I think focusing on goals for the Bees is the angle.

YOANE WISSA is the man to back TO SCORE ANYTIME at 15/8.

Wissa has scored in eight of his 12 home outings this season and is his side's biggest goal threat.

At the Gtech he has averaged a huge 0.77 xG per 90, so against a Villa team shipping chances and goals away from home, he looks a solid proposition to get another goal in front of his own fans.

Score prediction: Brentford 3-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)

Wolves vs Everton

I'll happily take a pro-Everton approach this weekend with Matheus Cunha's suspension.

The Brazilian is integral to everything Wolves do, scoring in five of their last six games, including crucial goals in three of their wins. The drop-off in creative quality in his absence is stark, and a well-drilled Everton team can take advantage.

Since David Moyes took charge, the Toffees have accumulated the fifth most points per game (1.88) in the division, losing only once in Moyes's first game in charge. They are unbeaten in seven, and their underlying process of 1.66 xGF and 1.11 xGA per game is of a top-half level.

Compare that to what happened under Sean Dyche in the first half of the season, where the Toffees averaged 0.89 points per game and posted an underlying process of 1.05 xGF and 1.73 xGA per game, and it's pretty clear that the Everton in the second half of the campaign are a completely different proposition.

Kudos, Moyesie.

We'll back EVERTON DRAW NO BET at evens on Saturday night.

Score prediction: Wolves 1-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Chelsea vs Leicester

The Ruud van Nistelrooy experiment has failed miserably. He's overseen 14 league games as Leicester manager and has seen his side lose 11 times.

Performances show no sign of turning around either, with a toothless display last time out against West Ham, and a tip to Chelsea will more than likely see them lose yet again.

In six away league games the Foxes have conceded 16 times and allowed an average of 2.43 xGA per game, so Chelsea could do to the Foxes what they did to Southampton and net four or more times.

Goalscorers for the hosts look worth chancing then, and I'll return to my midweek selection in MARC CUCURELLA TO SCORE ANYTIME.

He didn't feature in the Conference League having been selected at 13/1 away at Copenhagen, but still looks a huge price this weekend at 23/2 - an odd price in fractions, but 12.5 in decimals.

The Spanish left back has scored four times in his last 14 games, mainly due to his positioning seeing a notable change, with his shot output increasing remarkably.

In his first 15 games of the season Cucurella took just four shots total, unsurprisingly failing to score. Across his last 14 he's taken 15 attempts and scored four.

All four of his goals have come at Stamford Bridge, too, so with Chelsea expected to be in for a fair few goals, he looks overpriced.

Score prediction: Chelsea 4-0 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Tottenham vs Bournemouth

I was absolutely prepared to back Bournemouth to win here but they have been absolutely smashed into favouritism and to a price where I don't think they are value.

Having been backable as 17/10 outsiders on Tuesday of this week, I can't be getting on them at a general 11/8, even if the argument for a Cherries win is an easy one to make, especially after Spurs' defeat in the Europa League in midweek.

Instead, I'll dive into the prop markets and back DJED SPENCE TO WIN 2+ FOULS at 10/11.

I love this bet as we have a player excellent at drawing fouls against the most foul-heavy team in the division.

In his last 15 games across all competitions, Spence has been fouled 28 times at an average of 2.05 per 90, landing this bet in 10 of those contests.

Bournemouth have committed more fouls than any other side in the league this season (370 - 13.7 per game) and will continue playing in the same high-pressing manner under Andoni Iraola.

Referee John Brooks is averaging 5.05 cards per game across all competitions this season, and I'd be keen to back Spence's opposing winger to be carded if I knew whether he would start at right back or left back - or even at all with the risk of rotation.

Instead, I'll take the near 4/1 on JUSTIN KLUIVERT TO BE CARDED given his fouls and card record.

The Dutchman is an intense presser and isn't afraid to leave one on his opponents, picking up six cards this season at a per 90 average of 0.30.

Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola (left) with Justin Kluivert

He's also averaging 1.82 fouls per 90, so up against a good foul drawing Spurs midfield and a stringent referee, he looks overpriced.

Score prediction: Tottenham 1-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Super 6 predictions for round 44

  • Liverpool 3-0 Southampton
  • Brighton 1-1 Fulham
  • C Palace 3-1 Ipswich
  • Brentford 3-2 Aston Villa
  • Tottenham 2-1 Bournemouth
  • Manchester United 2-0 Arsenal

Saturday's tips - odds correct at 1400 GMT (7/3/25)

Sunday's tips - odds correct at 1600 GMT (7/3/25)

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