Play-off prospects Huddersfield and Stoke meet at the John Smith's Stadium on Friday night. EFL expert Michael Beardmore provides the preview and his best bets.
Football betting tips: Championship
1pt Danny Ward to score anytime at 11/4 (Bet365)
0.5pt e.w. Matty Pearson to score first at 28/1 (1/3 odds 1-98 places) (Bet365)
0.5pt Lee Nicholls to be shown a card at 14/1 (Bet365)
After a couple of pretty mediocre seasons in which a drop to Sky Bet League One looked more likely than a return to the Premier League, Huddersfield were many people’s tips for relegation prior to the start of this season.
But Carlos Corberan’s outfit have instead proved to be one of the Championship’s surprise packages, sitting sixth and right in the play-off mix as the final third of the campaign approaches.
A few weeks ago, Stoke were right up there with them but a run of six defeats in nine matches has pushed the Potters down to 11th and they will be acutely aware the games are beginning to run out.
Friday’s fixture is equally important for both sides then as the Terriers look to cement their position in the top six while Stoke aim to revitalise their own play-off hopes.
Stoke has won just five league games since the start of November and, interestingly, four of those have been away, suggesting the expectation heaped on them at the Bet365 Stadium is proving a burden.
That pattern and Huddersfield’s relatively decent home form - added to the fact only six points separate the sides (and Stoke have a game in hand) - makes this an incredibly tough game to predict, as the closeness of the bookies' odds attest.
It’s far preferable to seek value in the player markets in this one and Huddersfield’s in-form striker Danny Ward is definitely one to get onside.
The forward has 10 goals to his name this season but that includes six in his past six games – he’s in a purple patch so DANNY WARD TO SCORE ANYTIME appears huge value at 11/4 with Bet365.
Ward is a threat at set-pieces, just like Huddersfield in general – the Terriers have netted 12 times from dead-ball situations this season, the second highest total in the Championship.
Given Stoke have conceded nine times from set-pieces, I think it’s worth a small play on big Town defender MATTY PEARSON TO SCORE FIRST at each-way terms, at 28/1.
Pearson has three goals to his name already this season and against a Stoke side that have conceded the third most corners in the division, he should get a few opportunities to add a fourth.
Referee Gavin Ward will take charge of the game and he’s averaging four bookings per match this season so it would be no surprise to see a few cards flashed.
There are plenty of contenders on both sides but I’m taking a flier on Huddersfield goalkeeper LEE NICHOLLS TO BE SHOWN A CARD at 14/1.
Nicholls has already been booked five times in 26 games this season (an incredibly high tally for a keeper), primarily for time-wasting incidences, which makes that price short considering the official clearly takes no nonsense.
Huddersfield v Stoke score prediction and best bets
- Danny Ward to score anytime at 11/4 (Bet365)
- Matty Pearson to score first at 28/1 (1/3 odds 1-98 places) (Bet365)
- Lee Nicholls to be shown a card at 14/1 (Bet365)
Score prediction: Huddersfield 2-1 Stoke (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct 1650 GMT (26/01/22)
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