Jake Pearson's profitable Beat the Market column returns to preview the upcoming Premier League action, attempting to identify early value.
- Follow @JakePearson_SL on Twitter
- Beat the Market tipping record: 32.5 points staked | +37.61 points returned
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Leeds or draw against Aston Villa at 11/10 (General)
Aston Villa and Leeds have both had two and a half weeks on the training ground since their last Premier League outings.
With the ‘winter break’ followed by the FA Cup, a competition both sides exited at the previous round at the hands of Premier League opposition, these two sides should arrive into this fixture fresh.
Leeds’ injury woes look to be continuing, with Patrick Bamford showing no improvement, while Kalvin Phillips and Junior Firpo aren't expected to make the squad, but Marcelo Bielsa’s men have certainly begun to cope much more without some of their key players over the past couple of months.
Over the last 12 Premier League matches Leeds sit mid-table for the amount of points won (15), taking more than West Ham and Brighton, and just one fewer than opponents Villa.
There has been a definite drop off in results as far as the Villains are concerned, their 1-0 victory over Everton at the end of last month ending a run of four matches without a win for Steven Gerrard’s men.
The win over a Duncan Ferguson-managed Toffees side was hardly an overly impressive result however, Everton actually creating the better opportunities and ultimately unlucky not to come away with at least a point.
Creating chances has been an issue all season, but particularly since Gerrard’s arrival, only Wolves, Burnley and Norwich have been generated fewer opportunities than Villa since the former Rangers manager’s appointment, according to xG (expected goals).
Leeds, by contrast, have been performing well going forward of late, Manchester City the only team across their last eight matches to limit them to less than 1.0 xGF in a match, and given they have also faced Chelsea, Arsenal and West Ham in that period, those numbers make for good reading for Bielsa’s side.
Ultimately though, betting is all about prices, and in this match-up it is the odds-against price about LEEDS OR DRAW that makes the most appeal.
Despite Leeds’ upturn in form of late, their price has also been constantly on the drift, and though the opposition they have faced has undoubtedly affected that, this again looks a match in which they have been underestimated by the layers.
As visible on the above graph, while the trendline representing the amount of points Leeds have been winning this season is ascending, so too is the trendline that represents their closing line price - the two lines should theoretically be trending in opposite directions.
That this is also the shortest price that Aston Villa have been to win a Premier League match all season, including home fixtures against Newcastle and Burnley, further backs up the idea of a potential overreaction to Gerrard’s influence on this team.
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.