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Football tips, predictions and best bets: League One, League Two and International friendlies 23/03/24

By Sporting Life
Football
Sat March 23, 2024 · 2y ago

Football betting tips: Saturday best bets

1pt France to score in both halves vs Germany at 7/4 (General)

0.5pts Dayot Upamecano to score anytime in France vs Germany at 14/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

Already advised:
1.5pts Derby to beat Northampton and Under 3.5 Goals at 5/4 (Betway)
1pt e.w Alassana Jatta to score first in Notts County v Salford at 13/2 (bet365, Sky Bet) (1/3 odds 1-98 or 1-99 places)
1pt Belgium to beat Rep of Ireland at 21/20 (bet365, Coral)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

France vs Germany

Michael Beardmore

Germany are not in great shape as they prepare to host this summer's European Championships.

In the past year, they have lost friendlies to Poland, Colombia, Japan, Turkey and Austria - hardly footballing heavyweights. This, of course, on the back of a group-stage exit at the 2022 World Cup.

It must be acknowledged that they did somehow beat France in the midst of that run, 2-1 at Dortmund's Signal Iduna Park in September, but Les Bleus should be a different prospect on home turf.

Of course, this is a friendly so stakes should be kept minimal but I like the 7/4 available on FRANCE TO SCORE IN BOTH HALVES.

Germany have conceded 22 goals in their past 10 internationals - allowing the opposition to score in each half in six of those.

France, on the right night, can be an unstoppable attacking force, particularly if Kylian Mbappe is in the mood. In the 20 halves of football they have played since losing the World Cup final, France have scored in 16 of them.

Given we expect the hosts to score a couple, it's worth chancing some small change on DAYOT UPAMECANO TO SCORE ANYTIME at 14/1.

The Bayern Munich defender has two goals in 17 caps and leaps out among the higher-priced options, especially as he's up against a German squad lacking height.

Rep of Ireland vs Belgium

Jake Osgathorpe

Republic of Ireland interim coach, John O'Shea, has a task on his hands on Saturday as the Irish welcome a strong Belgium side to the Aviva Stadium. The perennial nearly-men, who many believe have missed their best chance for glory with their own 'golden generation', have a new lease of life under coach Domenico Tedesco.

They are unbeaten since the German took charge, winning eight of 10 and scoring a hat-full of goals in the process (26). They have won all five away games since his arrival, including at Sweden (ranked 26th in the world), Germany (16th) and Austria (25th).

Belgium manager Domenico Tedesco

Republic of Ireland aren't near the level of any of those three sides, currently ranked 62nd, and they are currently enduring a miserable run when playing as hosts.Since November 2022, the Irish have lost four of seven on their own patch, beating only Latvia (ranked 136th) and Gibraltar (201st) while drawing with New Zealand (103rd).

Defeats to teams of a similar calibre to Belgium (Norway, France, Netherlands) in that time highlights how ROI aren't the proposition of yesteryear, they are a middling nation who lose to good teams and beat bad ones.

The fact that France went off at 9/20 (1.45) to win at the Aviva Stadium and the Dutch 6/10 (1.60) in recent knockout games makes the odds-against price about a BELGIUM WIN appeal here.

Granted, both of those games were competitive fixtures, and if this were any other year I'd be wary of backing a side to win a friendly, but given the Euro's are fast approaching I think Tedesco takes this one seriously in a bid to maintain the Red Devils' momentum.

Also, the fact Belgium are missing key starters for this (Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku) is a positive in my mind too, as it means more fringe players who aren't guaranteed a place on the plane to Germany will be given starts, and they will be hungry to impress and book their seat to the Euros.

Northampton vs Derby

Michael Beardmore

Paul Warne’s Derby are doing what Paul Warne’s sides tend to do – grinding their way towards promotion from the third tier in a machine-like manner. They have won eight of their past 11 Sky Bet League One games to edge into the automatic promotion places.

All eight of those victories have come in games featuring UNDER 3.5 GOALS and it makes plenty of sense to back DERBY TO WIN in that same fashion when they visit out-of-form Northampton.

The Rams are dealing with a mini-injury crisis that Dwight Gayle’s hamstring issue has worsened. Other attacking-minded players like James Collins, Max Bird and Tyreece John-Jules remain out.

But in the face of such adversity, they keep eking out wins with a 'next man up' philosophy and should be backed to do so again at Sixfields against a Cobblers side winless in five.

Northampton have, however, been competitive at home against the sides in the promotion mix – visitors in the top nine have claimed 1-0 wins twice, plus 2-1 and 3-0 victories, all scores that would land our bet. It turns a Derby win from a best priced 7/10 into an inviting 5/4 with Betway.

Notts County v Salford City

Michael Beardmore

Goals are not something Notts County have struggled for this season - but they have found yet another source with newly-fit ALASSANA JATTA, who signed from Danish side Viborg in January.

In just 207 minutes of action, the 6ft 3in Gambian has scored three goals, attempted eight shots and contributed one assist, more than filling in as Macaulay Langstaff's strike partner while David McGoldrick has been on the treatment table.

It's only a small sample but Jatta's xG-per-90 (Expected Goals per 90 mins) is a ridiculous 1.23 thus far - he's been right among the chances.

Salford have improved since Karl Robinson but remain hugely vulnerable defensively - they have kept one clean sheet this calendar year and have conceded 72 goals this season, a joint league-high, alongside, coincidentally, County. Their 53 goals shipped from open play is a league high too.

You can get 2/1 for Jatta to continue his fine start to life at Meadow Lane by scoring anytime but I prefer the FIRST GOALSCORER option at 13/2 which, when taken to each way terms, gives us greater than 2/1 anyway for him to find the net at any stage.

Odds correct at 1500 (22/03/24)

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