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Thursday Best Bets Aston Villa

Football tips, predictions and best bets: Europa League and Europa Conference League for Thursday 30/11/23

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Thu November 30, 2023 · 2y ago

Football betting tips: Thursday best bets

2pts Brighton to score 2+ goals vs AEK Athens at 4/5 (bet365, Betfair, Betfred)

1.5pts Rangers to win -1 handicap vs Aris Limassol at 10/11 (Paddys)

1pt TSC Backa Topola +2 handicap vs West Ham at 23/20 (Unibet, BetUK)

1pt Aston Villa to win and BTTS vs Legia Warsaw at 19/10 (William Hill, Betway)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

AEK Athens vs Brighton

Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)

After losing their opening group game in the reverse fixture, Brighton have bounced back extremely well, winning two and drawing the other of their three games, meaning victory here will see them secure qualification to the knockouts.

AEK have stuttered since that 3-2 win at the Amex, picking up only a point against bottom of the pile Ajax, with it clear that Marseille and the Seagulls are the class of the group.

With that in mind, BRIGHTON should get revenge in Athens, though the price about them to SCORE 2+ GOALS appeals more than a straight win.

We can get Roberto De Zerbi's side at 4/5 to hit the net twice - something they have done in all four group games so far and 11 times across 18 games in all competitions this season - with the away win at even money.

Given their continued defensive struggles, and the fact they have failed to win two of their group games when scoring twice, the goals angle appeals much more than an away win.

TSC Backa Topola vs West Ham

Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)

Yes, West Ham should be favourites for this game, a trip to the team third in the Serbian Super Liga, but should they be as short as 2/9?

Put bluntly, no. They shouldn't. While a glance at the group tells you it's top versus bottom, and bottom can no longer qualify for the Europa League knockouts, TSC Backa Topola can still finish third and drop into the Europa Conference League.

They have plenty to play for, not to mention pride, which will be through the roof as they take on a huge Premier League outfit in front of a raucous home crowd.

The Hammers have struggled of late, only scraping past bottom of the league Burnley 2-1 at the weekend, and so far on their travels in the Europa League have mustered a combined 1.76 xGF. They are finding it difficult to create chances.

Meanwhile, TSC have already held Olympiacos at home and took the lead against both West Ham in the reverse game and Freiburg, showing they are capable of bloodying the nose of the better sides, after all, they come into this game on the back of a 4-0 away triumph against Partizan Belgrade, inflicting the Serbian leaders' first defeat of the domestic season.

We can back TSC +2 HANDICAP at an odds against price which appeals greatly.

This bet wins if TSC win the game, avoid defeat or lose by just one goal, and given West Ham's attacking struggles, it could be a tighter game than the odds suggest.

Rangers vs Aris Limassol

Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)

Revenge. It must be on the mind of Rangers' players. After all, they were well-beaten in the reverse game, losing 2-1 to the rank-underdog Cypriots.

That was back at the start of October, and a lot has changed since at Ibrox, with a new manager at the helm and the Gers unbeaten in nine, winning seven.

They have won all three home games under Phillippe Clement, and should make it four here against a vulnerable defensive team.

New Rangers boss Philippe Clement

Aris Limassol have lost both away games in the group stage so far, conceding seven times, and an attack-minded home team who can secure qualification with a win should cause them too many problems, so taking RANGERS -1 HANDICAP is the selection.

We can back that at 10/11 with Paddy Power, with the selection as short as 3/4 in places, and for it to win we need the Gers to win by at least two goals.

Aston Villa vs Legia Warsaw

Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)

The top two in Group E of the Europa Conference League meet at Villa Park, and defeat for Unai Emery's side would see them consigned to second place in the group, and with it a extra two games in a play-off round against a Europa League dropout which is not needed in a season with a heavy schedule.

Fortunately for Villa then, this game comes at home, where they have a 100% record in the Premier and Europa League this season.

They should get the job done here and get the win, with Emery likely to field a strong side knowing the importance of the clash, but they have looked vulnerable defensively of late.

In fact, six of their last seven home wins have seen them concede, so chancing ASTON VILLA TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE appeals at just shy of 2/1.

It's also worth remembering how Legia caused the Villains so many issues in the reverse, netting three times, so are more than capable of getting on the scoresheet.

Odds correct at 1115 GMT (29/11/23)

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