Football betting tips: Europa Conference League
1pt Ismaila Sarr to score anytime at 13/5 (bet365)
1pt Red card in the match at 5/1 (William Hill)
0.5pt Both teams to have a red card at 90/1 (William Hill)
This preview is a rinse-and-repeat of the one for the first leg. Same theory, same bets, slightly different spiel and hopefully a different outcome - and by that all the bets actually win this time.
If you didn’t read it you must be wondering what I am talking about. Or maybe you did read it and need me to refresh your memory. Or maybe you want me to just get on with it.
Well before I get into the bets, a word on the first leg.
Crystal Palace won 3-0 and the performance was as commanding as the scoreline suggests.
Jean-Philippe Mateta and Evann Guessand went close before the latter won a penalty in the 20th minute and the former converted it.
Six minutes later Tyrick Mitchell doubled their advantage before ISMAILA SARR made it three in the 90th minute.
The Eagles had three times as many shots on target as Fiorentina, generated six times more expected goals (xG) and created six ‘big chances’ to the Italian side's zero.
It means they head to Florence with one foot in the semi-finals and can be found as short as 1/200 to qualify.
The bets then. SARR can be backed at 13/5 TO SCORE ANYTIME.
He netted his 14th goal for Palace of the campaign in the first leg and his fourth in five appearances in this competition.
Fiorentina will need to go for this game at some point, commit men forward and this could play right into the hands of Sarr and his pace.
Oliver Glasner could rest some of his big hitters which is a risk but bet365 will void the selection should he miss out.
I also think backing A RED CARD IN THE MATCH and BOTH TEAMS TO HAVE A RED CARD are worth another look.
Obviously, Palace’s commanding position is a worry but that can be offset by the referee appointment because it is a doozy.
Jesus Gil Manzano is the man in the middle and the Spaniard has dished out 12 reds in 29 appearances in all competitions this term (0.41 reds per game).
In this competition, he’s dished out seven yellows and a red in two appearances. Across his 53 UEFA European games he’s sent seven players off.
Palace have been involved in seven games to have at least one red card across their last 14 and three of their games in this competition have seen a man sent off.
Odds correct at 14:40 BST (15/04/26)
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