Football betting tips: FA Cup
3pts Port Vale under 7.5 total shots at 8/11 (bet365)
1.5pts Port Vale under 1.5 shots on target at 13/8 (bet365)
***All bets in 90 minutes
I think it's fair to say that if Chelsea lose this game Liam Rosenior will be out of a job.
The Blues head into an FA Cup quarter-final against League One's bottom club Port Vale on a four-match losing streak, winning just one of their last eight games in 90 minutes.
Out of form, rumblings of an unhappy dressing room; it really could implode spectacularly.
At Stamford Bridge they have won just three of their last 10 in all competitions, with those coming against Brentford in Rosenior's first league game in charge, Cypriot minnows Pafos and relegation-threatened West Ham - they had to come back from 2-0 down in the latter.
Draws with Leeds and Premier League struggler Burnley in that time also speak to just how poor Chelsea have been of late in front of their own fans, so an upset can't be completely written-off.
Unfortunately for the neutral, it seems highly unlikely Vale can win on the road against Premier League opponents - if this game were at Vale Park we might be getting them onside.
The soon-to-be League Two side club have had a miserable campaign in the third tier and haven't travelled well this season, losing 10 of their last 13 on the road against League One opponents, winning only against fellow relegation strugglers.
Back-to-back FA Cup success against Bristol City and Sunderland came thanks to home comforts and a solid foundation, with clean sheets kept against both, but it's highly unlikely they'll be able to keep Chelsea out in 90 minutes here, so unfortunately it will likely be the end of their journey.
Chelsea need a dominant performance to build some confidence heading into the final throes of the Premier League season, while the FA Cup is their only chance for silverware, so I suspect we'll see constant pressure and very little threat from Vale.
Looking at their shot data, the shrewd move looks to be in opposing Vale shots at Stamford Bridge. Across their last 12 away games in League One against third-tier opponents, Vale have taken an average of just 7.33 per game. I'll repeat - against third-tier opponents.
At home to Arsenal earlier in the season in a Carabao Cup game, Vale managed just three shots in total, while at home to Premier League side Sunderland in the last round they mustered just nine.
Away to a top-six team from the top flight I was pleasantly surprised to see PORT VALE UNDER 7.5 SHOTS available at 8/11 and that is the main bet here.
This bet would have won in seven of Vale's last 12 League One away games, so against a far superior Premier League opponent should go really close, especially with Chelsea likely to dominate the ball and Vale to be sitting very deep.
Under Rosenior, this bet has won three times in six home contests against Premier League and Champions League sides, with Pafos, probably the worst team in the sample, mustering just four attempts.
Leeds managed four shots, Newcastle just seven and PSG eight, while Burnley were sat on five and hadn't managed a second half shot before Wesley Fofana was sent off, after which they hit a final total of 12.
All of the opponents mentioned are considerably better than Port Vale, so this angle should be backed accordingly, especially given it has a 100% strike-rate in FA Cup games where a top-half Premier League side has hosted a League One or League Two side this season.
We'll also have a smaller bet on PORT VALE UNDER 1.5 SHOTS ON TARGET at 13/8, with the thought path the same in that they won't get close to Chelsea's goal often enough, and if they do the shots they will take will be difficult ones to hit the target.
This bet has landed in six of Port Vale's last 10 away league games, while they failed to hit the target at all in their Carabao game against a much-changed Arsenal and only had one attempt on target against Sunderland.
I am putting an awful lot of faith into Chelsea here given their defensive vulnerabilities, but we have to account for the mammoth gulf in quality between these teams which should lead to a very one-sided encounter.
Odds correct at 12:30 BST (2/4/26)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Home of This Week's Acca
- Football and other sports tips
- Download the Sporting Life app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.