Football betting tips: Europa League
1.5pts Troy Parrott 1+ shot on target at 17/20 (Betway)
1pt Lucas Bergvall to be carded at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 37/1
- Troy Parrott 1+ shot on target
- Micky van de Ven to win 1+ foul
- Ernest Poku to win 2+ fouls
- Lucas Bergvall to be carded
Tottenham vs AZ (Agg: 0-1)
Kick-off: 20:00 GMT, Thursday
TV: TNT Sports 3
Home 4/9 | Draw 7/2 | Away 21/4
Tottenham were extremely poor in losing the first leg 1-0, somewhat fortunate to lose by only a goal. They lost the shot count 12-7, the shot on target count 5-1, the big chances created 4-1 and the xG battle 1.61 to 0.44.
They are still the 8/11 favourites to advance to the quarter finals.
Spurs are getting healthier, with Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven back in the mix.
But while they played against a good Bournemouth team on Sunday, AZ had a free weekend.
The main issue Spurs have to deal with in this second leg, and something they historically struggle immensely to overcome, is pressure.
Ange Postecoglou's side are expected to advance here, their entire season hinges on the Europa League, making every game on the continent that bit more significant.
What are the best bets?
That was the theory in the first leg when we backed AZ to win, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see another Spurs choke-job in front of their own fans.
The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has been a happy hunting ground for visitors of late, with Spurs winning just four of their last 14 home games across all competitions, two of those coming against Manchester United and one against Elfsborg.
It's six defeats in that time and a host of goals conceded (27), so AZ will fancy their chances of getting a result that would see them advance; though they have failed to win any of their five away Europa League matches this season, losing three.
These two sides faced off in this very stadium during the league phase and Spurs edged to a narrow 1-0 win thanks to a penalty in a close game, and this third meeting should be no different, especially with Spurs missing Dejan Kulusevski.
He is crucial to their attack, and in his absence they have scored just one non-penalty goal in 245 mins of football, generating a total of 2.45 non-pen xG at an average of 0.90 per 90.
That immediately puts me off a pro-Spurs bet, as does the fact that they are chasing so will likely overcommit at times, leaving space for AZ to exploit.
So, I'll back former Spurs striker TROY PARROTT 1+ SHOT ON TARGET at 17/20, as he's the man to threaten the voids left.
He'll be keen to impress again when he steps foot in north London, and has been in red hot form from a shot on target perspective.
The Irishman has hit the target at least once in 13 of his last 16 outings averaging 1.24 per 90 in that run.
He's fired a shot on target in all of his last five Europa League appearances, including the first leg, so the price available looks large - he's as short as 4/9 in places.
I'll also have to back LUCAS BERGVALL TO BE CARDED at 4/1 and above.
The price looks huge for a player who has been booked in five of his 18 starts this season. His card per 90 average when being named in the XI stands at 0.32 so I expected to see prices around 5/2 in what is such a big game for Spurs.
He'll be tasked with putting out counter-attacking fires, while he is always overzealous into tackles, and with card happy referee Joao Pinheiro overseeing proceedings (4.65 per game), he looks overpriced.
Team news
Spurs will be missing midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur through suspension, but Postecoglou has enough cover, with it likely that own goal-scorer in the first leg Lucas Bergvall starts in midfield alongside James Maddison and one of Yves Bissouma or Pape Sarr.
Micky van den Ven and Cristian Romero have both now returned from long absences and could start together at the heart of Spurs' defence. With Destiny Udogie and Pedro Porro both fit, Postecoglou has a decision to make at full-back with Djed Spence playing so well over the last few months.
Dejan Kulusevski will be out for this and will be a huge miss, while Richarlison is also absent through injury.
AZ are missing Mayckel Lahdo, Denso Kasius, Sven Mijnans, Ruben van Bommel, Jayden Addai and Mexx Meerdink.
The Dutch side will likely make only one change for this second leg, with winger Ibrahim Sadiq coming in for the injured Lahdo.
Predicted line-ups
Tottenham: Vicario; Pedro Porro, Van de Ven, Romero, Udogie; Bergvall, Gray, Maddison; Johnson, Solanke, Son.
AZ Alkmaar: Owusu-Oduro; Maikuma, Goes, Penetra, Wolfe; Clasie, Buurmeester, Koopmeiners; Poku, Parrott, Sadiq.
Match facts
- Tottenham Hotspur have won four of their last five home European matches against Dutch teams, losing the other 1-0 against Ajax in April 2019 in the UEFA Champions League.
- AZ have lost all nine of their away European matches in England, losing to eight different teams. It is the worst 100% losing record away to English sides of any team in major European football history.
- Tottenham have scored in each of their last 29 home matches in the UEFA Europa League, the longest run of scoring on home soil in UEFA Europa League history. The last time they didn’t score at home was in a 0-0 draw with Lazio in September 2012 under André Villas-Boas.
- AZ are winless in their last 10 away major European matches (D2 L8) since a 2-1 win at Lazio in March 2023 in the last 16 of the UEFA Conference League. Only between October 2007 and November 2011 have they endured a longer winless run (11).
- Tottenham’s Archie Gray has started nine UEFA Europa League matches this season and could become the first English teenager to start 10 games in a season, and just the second to play 10 times, along with Marcus Rashford for Man Utd in 2016-17 (11).
Odds correct at 1815 GMT (10/03/25)
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