Liam Kelly previews Celtic's hosting of AZ Alkmaar in the final Europa League qualifying round, expecting a tighter match-up than the prices suggest.
Football betting tips: Europa League
1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 23/20 (BetVictor)
Dutch side AZ Alkmaar travel to Parkhead to face Celtic in the final round of Europa League qualifying, with both teams looking to avoid participation in the inaugural Europa Conference League by remaining in this competition.
The Bhoys, led by Ange Postecoglou this season, advanced to this stage thanks to a 7-2 aggregate win over Jablonec, a sign that Celtic might be hitting form at a convenient time.
After a tumultuous beginning to Postecoglou's tenure, dumped out of the Champions League qualifiers by FC Midtjylland before losing their Scottish Premiership opener, Celtic appear to have turned a corner.
They've won their last four matches in all competitions in high-scoring fashion, entering this intriguing contest against a team that may well be lacking some identity.
AZ Alkmaar finished third in the Eredivisie last season, and deservedly so based on expected goals (xG), but the composition of their squad looks a whole lot different this term - severely weakened in the summer window.
Myron Boadu and Calvin Stengs, who often starred for AZ, have departed for pastures new, while Teun Koopmeiners is consistently linked with a transfer away from Alkmaar.
Koopmeiners was left out of the starting line-up in their Eredivisie season opener at the weekend, a disappointing 1-0 defeat to perennial strugglers RKC Waalwijk (xG: RKC 0.76 - 1.50 AZ). He might return for this match-up, though, bolstering a shorthanded side at the defensive end.
That only serves to heighten the chances of a tighter game than the prices suggest, with UNDER 2.5 GOALS of interest at odds-against.
Celtic have impressed offensively in recent weeks, scoring 16 goals in their four most recent outings, but AZ represent a much stiffer task to the Glasgow side than recent opponents, even in their current weakened form.
The magnitude of this fixture is also a factor. A place in the Europa League is at stake, a relatively standard expectation for both these clubs, making this first leg an important affair.
Celtic v AZ Alkmaar best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 23/20 (BetVictor)
Score prediction: Celtic 1-0 AZ Alkmaar (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1030 BST (17/08/21)
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