After landing a 50/1 first goalscorer winner last weekend, Tom Carnduff has two more big priced fancies as Crystal Palace host Manchester City on Monday Night Football.
Football betting tips: Premier League
0.75pt e.w. John Stones to score first at 33/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
0.75pt e.w. Aymeric Laporte to score first at 25/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
Manchester City are the second-best side in the Premier League for goals from set-pieces this season, Crystal Palace are the joint second-worst. There's an obvious reason why I was looking forward to previewing this game, but more on that in a bit.
The visitors may come into this one just three points clear at the top as Liverpool take on Brighton on Saturday. They find themselves involved in a title race again and every single point counts - neither they or Liverpool look like losing.
For Palace, their campaign has been one of relative success with mid-table security established. They also beat City in their trip to the Etihad earlier this season - although we shouldn't expect a similar outcome this time around.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Monday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Crystal Palace 10/1 | Draw 9/2 | Manchester City 2/7
As ever, City's involvement affects the markets with everything stacked in their favour. It's why set-pieces could provide a route to City goals and to profit.
The visitors are expected to rack up the corner count with 7+ priced up at odds of just 8/13. It's hardly a surprise when they take, on average, a league-high 8.64 per game.
Palace's set-piece defending has been problematic all season and while it's eased off somewhat in the second-half of the campaign, it's still viewed as a vulnerable area.
Watford struck from a corner in their meeting with Palace a couple of weeks ago, while Virgil van Dijk powered in a header from a similar situation when Liverpool won at Selhurst Park - a goal that landed a 7/1 winning tip.
One player I've been keen on recently is John Stones and I'm more than happy to have an each-way play on the 33/1 for STONES TO SCORE FIRST on Monday night.
We backed him to do this against Sporting in the Champions League and it so nearly happened. He had an effort go over the crossbar late on with the score at 0-0 - it was a chance that Infogol rated as a 34% chance.
That was their third highest of the contest and it remains true that Stones is City's biggest threat in the air. His 3.7 aerial duels won in the Premier League is the highest in this City squad.
The centre-back is going at a rate of 0.5 shots per Premier League game with a 1.0 shots per Champions League outing average to go alongside it.
While Stones had the third-biggest opportunity, it was fellow defender Aymeric Laporte with the second. At 25/1, we're also on the each-way for LAPORTE TO SCORE FIRST.
He may have a lower 1.3 aerials won average but his shots figure is considerably higher than Stones. His average stands at 1.2 per game - with three goals in the league this season.
That 26th minute effort against Sporting carried a probability rating of 40% on Infogol which highlights the types of situations he's finding himself in. With Nathan Ake and Ruben Dias on the sidelines, this should be City's starting defensive pairing.
With City's outright price providing little interest, the best bet comes in backing STONES or LAPORTE to strike first.
Crystal Palace v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 0.75pt e.w. John Stones to score first at 33/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
- 0.75pt e.w. Aymeric Laporte to score first at 25/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (11/03/22)
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