Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Brentford or Draw Double Chance at 27/20 (Unibet)
Chelsea sit 10th through nine league games of the Mauricio Pochettino era, but perhaps should sit higher based on performances and data. The same can be said for their visitors on Saturday, with 14th placed Brentford ranking seventh-best in the league on expected points (xP) through the opening throws of the season.
While the Blues threw away a two-goal lead against Arsenal last weekend, the Bees got back to winning ways in emphatic fashion, dominating Burnley 3-0.
There was a lot of hype around Chelsea's performance in that game against the Gunners, but for all the positive around build-up play and shape, the major negative was they failed to create any good chances of note.
Their goals came via a dubious penalty decision and a flukey cross, and for all their 'dominance', the Blues mustered a total of just 0.92 non-penalty expected goals.
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That has to be a concern moving forward, and against a decent Brentford defence, they may be halted once again.
From a defensive perspective, where Chelsea have generally been impressive this season, Jamie Carragher made an interesting observation from last week's game, with Arsenal gaining more success when playing a direct style in the second half.
Obviously the Gunners were chasing the game, but it wasn't as though it was a 'last roll of the dice' centre-back going up top, Mikel Arteta purposely put the bigger bodied Kai Havertz up top in a a 4-4-2 (4-2-4) shape and stopped playing out from the back.
This could be an avenue of success for a Brentford team who have the ability to play in a very direct manner.
Additionally, away from home this season, Thomas Frank's side have averaged 1.73 xGF and 1.00 xGA per game, and have only narrowly lost at Newcastle and Manchester United in matches against the 'big seven', while last term they beat City, Spurs and Chelsea away, while holding Arsenal and only losing by a single goal to Manchester United and Liverpool.
They give the big boys a run for their money whenever they play them, and given Chelsea's recent home record, backing BRENTFORD OR DRAW in the double chance market appeals.
The Blues have won just three home league games in 17 since the start of the calendar year, losing seven, including against Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa this season, so the visitors are worth chancing here.
BuildABet @ 12/1
- Brentford +1 handicap
- Both teams to score
- Bryan Mbeumo to score anytime
- Each team 20+ booking points
The case for a positive Brentford result has been made above, while both teams scoring appealing. Bryan Mbuemo has five goals to his name already this season and is averaging 0.52 xG per 90 minutes.
Simon Hooper is the man with the whistle, and he has averaged 4.33 cards per game. Chelsea have received 2+ cards in every Premier League game to date, with Brentford picking up 2+ cards in 67% of their league games.
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Team news
Chelsea are still having to cope without Wesley Fofana, Christopher Nkunku, Carney Chukwuemeka (all knee), Ben Chilwell, Trevoh Chalobah (both thigh) and Romeo Lavia (ankle) due to injury. Armando Broja (knee) is also sidelined.
Reece James recovered from a hamstring problem to make a substitute appearance last weekend and the right-back is set to compete with Malo Gusto for a start against Brentford, while Axel Disasi will push to return at centre-back, and his potential inclusion in the first XI could see Levi Colwill move over to left-back at the expense of Marc Cucurella.
As for Brentford, Rico Henry, Mikkel Damsgaard (both knee), Kevin Schade (groin), Josh Dasilva (hamstring), Shandon Baptiste (shoulder) and Keane Lewis-Potter (calf) all remained sidelined due to injury.
However, Aaron Hickey is available for selection after serving a one-match suspension last weekend, and the Scotsman is expected to return at left-back, with Vitaly Janelt swapping his makeshift defensive role for a more familiar position in centre-midfield.
Ben Mee is also fit and available and could be handed a start in a back three alongside Nathan Collins and Ethan Pinnock if Frank opts to switch to a 3-5-2 formation.
Predicted line-ups
Chelsea: Sanchez; Gusto, Disasi, Silva, Colwill; Fernandez, Caicedo, Gallagher; Palmer, Sterling, Mudryk.
Brentford: Flekken; Collins, Mee, Pinnock; Roerslev, Jensen, Norgaard, Janelt, Hickey; Mbeumo, Wissa.
Match facts
- Having won seven of eight meetings with Brentford in all competitions between 1947 and 2021 (D1), Chelsea have now lost two of their last three against the Bees (D1).
- Brentford have won both of their Premier League away games against Chelsea – no team has ever won their first three games at Stamford Bridge in the competition.
- Chelsea have won just two of their last 12 Premier League London derbies (D4 L6), beating Crystal Palace 1-0 in January and Fulham 2-0 earlier this month. The Blues threw away a 2-0 lead to draw 2-2 with Arsenal in their last such match.
- Brentford are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League London derby matches (W6 D6), their longest run without defeat against fellow London sides in their league history. Away from home they’ve won their last three such games, never winning four in a row on the road before.
- Since the start of February, Chelsea have won fewer home games than any other ever present Premier League side (2), with only Bournemouth (12) earning fewer home points in that time than the Blues (13). Chelsea’s two victories in that run were against eventually relegated Leeds in March, and against newly promoted Luton in August.
Odds correct 1700 BST (26/10/23)
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