Football betting tips: Champions League
2.5pts Aston Villa +1.5 Asian handicap at 3/4 (bet365)
0.5pts Aston Villa double chance and Emiliano Martinez to be carded at 18/1 (bet365)
0.25pts Aston Villa win and Emiliano Martinez to be carded at 45/1 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 14/1
- Aston Villa +1 handicap
- Emiliano Martinez to be carded
PSG wrapped up the Ligue 1 title at the weekend and are on for an invincible domestic campaign.
They have won 22 of their last 26 games (D3 L1). The defeat came against Liverpool in the first leg of the last round but was down to Allison Becker's heroics and not a subpar PSG performance.
Luis Enrique’s side had 27 shots that evening, hitting the target 10 times and racking up an xG of 1.78. Les Parisiens’ scored 11 times across the two Champions League home games prior to the Liverpool loss as well, the size of the task for Aston Villa cannot be understated.
The Villans are in good form, boasting a 100% record across their last seven and still have a chance of FA Cup silverware and a top four finish in the Premier League.
As for the betting, PSG are 2/5 on to win on Wednesday and 2/9 to qualify, both of which look stingy. PSG went off a touch under 6/4 in the 4-2 victory over Manchester City for context.
What are the best bets?
I’ve gone for the bait, Villa’s price just looks too big in Paris.
The Villans strengthened considerably in January and have depth across the pitch which could prove to be pivotal as they fight on several fronts.
They have won their last seven on the spin and only lost twice in 13 games since the turn of the year. Talk about coming to the boil at the perfect time.
Most importantly, they have a European connoisseur in the dugout.
Unai Emery makes no secret of his love for continental competitions and his record shows as much.
He has won the Europa League four times, three of which came on the spin. In this competition, Emery has picked up results in 41 of 63 games. This is his 9th Champions League season and he has guided his side to the knockout stages on five occasions.
Most interestingly though, this clash is laced with some narrative.
Emery returns to PSG and the Spaniard has made a habit of coming back to haunt his former employers.
Since he left Arsenal, Villa have taken points from the Gunners in three of four league meetings. He also knocked out Arsenal in the semi finals of the Europa League with Villarreal.
No doubt he will be double keen to get one over Les Parisiens.
ASTON VILLA +1.5 appeals on the ASIAN HANDICAP as they can lose by a goal and the bet is still paid out as a winner.
Sticking along similar lines, EMILIANO MARTINEZ’s price TO BE CARDED appeals alongside ASTON VILLA DOUBLE CHANCE (+1 GOAL HANDICAP on Sky Bet) and ASTON VILLA TO WIN.
- CLICK HERE to back Aston Villa +1 goal handicap and Emiliano Martinez to be carded with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Aston Villa to win and Emiliano Martinez to be carded with Sky Bet
The logic is tight. Aston Villa would take a draw and their keeper will be pulling out all the stops.
Martinez picked up his fourth card of the season at the weekend against Forest and his second in as many games. So, he’s been in a mischievous mood recently.
Team news
Emery has a relatively clean bill of health with Leon Bailey and Ross Barkley the only expected absentees.
Emery made eight changes for the win over Forest at the weekend. Matty Cash, Ezri Konsa and John McGinn were amongst those rested and the trio could be recalled on Wednesday.
Ollie Watkins should continue to lead the line with Morgan Rodgers and Marcus Rashford on the flanks.
PSG will be without Kang-In Lee (ankle) and Marquinhos (suspension).
Ousmane Dembele is expected to spearhead a three-man attack with Bradley Barcola on the left and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia on the right. The three players have netted 11 goals between them in this competition.
Predicted line-ups
PSG: Donnarumma; Hakimi, Hernandez, Pacho, Mendes; Vitinha, Neves, Zaire-Emery; Kvaratskhelia, Dembele, Barcola
Aston Villa: Martinez; Disasi, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Kamara, Tielemans; McGinn, Rogers, Rashford, Watkins
Match facts
- Paris SG and Aston Villa will meet for the first time in European competition, with this just the second UEFA Champions League quarter-final between French and English sides in the last eight campaigns (Manchester City 1-3 Lyon in the only leg in 2019-20).
- Paris SG eliminated Liverpool in the last 16 of this season’s UEFA Champions League, after having exited the competition in each of their last three knockout stage meetings with English sides (v Man City in 2015-16 and 2020-21, and Man Utd in 2018-19).
- Aston Villa have never won away to a French opponent in European competition (P5 D2 L3); their most away to teams from one nation without winning. The last two have both been defeats under Unai Emery, losing at Lille in April 2024 (1-2) and at Monaco in January this year (0-1).
- Aston Villa will be the fourth different English team that Paris SG have faced in the UEFA Champions League this season (also Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool). This is the joint-most opponents from one nation that a team have played against in a single European Cup/Champions League campaign, along with Leeds United in 2000-01 (four Spanish sides) and Real Madrid in 2023-24 (four German sides).
- Aston Villa boss Unai Emery has won just two of his 10 games against Luis Enrique as a manager (D1 L7), with both wins coming in home fixtures. Indeed, this will be the first time they’ve faced each other since the 2016-17 campaign, when Luis Enrique’s Barcelona came from 0-4 down in the first leg to eliminate Emery’s Paris SG side in the UEFA Champions League last 16 (6-1 win in the second leg).
- Paris SG have the fifth-youngest starting XI on average in the UEFA Champions League this season (24y 242d), and the youngest of any team remaining in the 2024-25 tournament.
- 52% of Aston Villa’s chances created in the UEFA Champions League this season have come from the middle third of the pitch (left/middle/right); the highest percentage of any side. Meanwhile, Unai Emery’s team have conceded the fewest overall chances from the middle third this term (12).
- Ousmane Dembélé has netted seven goals in his last six UEFA Champions League games for Paris SG, one more than in his previous 36 appearances in the competition combined (6). Six of those seven goals have been scored in away matches, however.
- Paris SG’s Vitinha has completed 93% of his passes made under high-intensity pressure in the UEFA Champions League this season (544/586); the highest completion rate of any midfielder in the competition (min. 100 attempted). The Portuguese also leads all players for line-breaking passes in the knockout stages of the current tournament (77). (See graphic below)
- Marco Asensio has scored three goals in two UEFA Champions League appearances for Aston Villa (both as a substitute), after failing to score in 10 games for former club Paris SG in the competition. If he finds the net in this game, 2024-25 would be his best ever return in a single Champions League campaign (currently on three).
Odds correct at 1500 BST (07/04/25)
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