Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Under 2.5 goals at 11/10 (General)
0.5pt No first goalscorer at 12/1 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 15/1
- Under 2.5 goals
- Dayot Upamecano 2+ fouls
- Jonathan Tah 2+ fouls
An all-German affair pits Bayern Munich against Bayern Leverkusen in the Champions League round of 16 on Wednesday.
Hosts Bayern sit eight points clear at the top of the Bundesliga although it is Die Werkself who have had the upper hand in head-to-head meetings this season.
Xabi Alonso’s side have drawn the two domestic clashes and knocked Bayern out of the DFB-Pokal at the Allianz Arena.
In fact, since Alonso took charge, he is yet to lose against the Bavarian giants (W3 D3 L0) which is why quotes of 13/8 with Sky Bet about Leverkusen qualifying might be worth considering.
The visitors almost have a clean bill of health, the same cannot be said for Vincent Kompany’s side.
After finishing 12th in the group stage, Bayern laboured past Celtic 3-2 on aggregate and needed a fortunate 94th-minute goal from Alphonso Davies to progress via the play-off second leg. Kompany’s side drew on the night in a game they went off around 1/5 to win.
Even with the return of Harry Kane, I expect a cagey encounter here.
What are the best bets?
Aside from the 9-2 win over Dinamo Zagreb and 3-1 win over Slovan Bratislava, Bayern’s Champions League home games have lacked goals with UNDER 2.5 GOALS clicking in the other three.
Kompany’s side beat Benfica and PSG 1-0 and drew with Celtic 1-1 highlighting concerns over his managerial capabilities in big games.
Leverkusen are more than capable of covering this unders line on their own, as they have done 12 times this season, but margins are usually fine when they play Bayern and this bet has clicked in all three meetings this term.
The most recent game ended 0-0 and although Leverkusen racked up an xG of 2.16 and they limited Bayern to just 0.05 xG. Bayern only had two shots and didn’t hit the target with either.
The two-legged nature of this clash only enhances the case for unders and part of the reason why the 12/1 about NO FIRST GOALSCORER also appeals.
Team news
Jamal Musiala, Joao Palhinha and Davies are all expected to be fit enough to start for Bayern but this game may come too soon for Joshua Kimmich, Eric Dier and Aleksandar Pavlovic, although Kimmich did return to training over the weekend.
In more positive news, Kane has returned to fitness, no player has scored more Champions League goals than him since he joined Bayern (15).
Leverkusen defender Piero Hincapie was suspended at the weekend but is back available and should start. Martin Terrier is out with an injury.
Predicted line-ups
Bayern Munich: Neuer; Laimer, Kim, Upamecano, Davies; Palhinha, Goretzka; Olise, Musiala, Coman; Kane.
Bayer Leverkusen: Hradecky; Mukiele, Tah, Hincapie; Frimpong, Aleix Garcia, Xhaka, Grimaldo; Tella, Schick, Wirtz.
Match facts
- This will be the first ever meeting between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen in major European competition. Bayern Munich won their last match against German opposition in the UEFA Champions League against Borussia Dortmund in the 2012-13 final, whilst Bayer Leverkusen last faced German opposition in the 2007-08 UEFA Cup, when they were defeated 3-2 by Hamburger SV.
- Under Xabi Alonso, Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in their six matches against Bayern Munich across all competitions (W3 D3). They’ve kept a clean sheet in three of their last four against them, after not keeping any in their previous 15 games against Bayern beforehand (42 goals conceded in those 15 matches).
- Bayern Munich have won each of their last three games against German opposition in European competition, one more victory than across their previous eight matches against sides from the same country (W2 D1 L5).
- Bayer Leverkusen have lost just one of their four games against German opposition in European competition (W2 D1), keeping a clean sheet in three of those matches.
- Bayern Munich have lost just one of their last 11 home games played at the UEFA Champions League last 16 stage (W9 D1), a 3-1 defeat to Liverpool in March 2019. Across those 11 matches, the Bavarians have scored 41 goals in total.
- Bayer Leverkusen have won just one of their prior ten UEFA Champions League Round of 16 games (D1 L8), a 1-0 win over Atlético Madrid in February 2015, though they were still eliminated by the Spanish side in the tie.
- Bayern Munich’s Manuel Neuer could make his 150th UEFA Champions League appearance in this game (currently on 149). In doing so, he’d become just the second goalkeeper to reach this milestone in the competition, after Iker Casillas (177 total appearances).
- Florian Wirtz has been directly involved in seven goals in the UEFA Champions League for Bayer Leverkusen this season (six goals, one assist) – only Michael Ballack in 2001-02 has ever recorded more for the club in a season (9).
- Since joining Bayern Munich in August 2023, no player has scored more UEFA Champions League goals than Harry Kane (15 – level with Kylian Mbappé). In that time frame, the Englishman also leads all players in the competition for overall goal contributions recorded (20 – 15 goals, five assists).
- Bayern Munich midfielder Joshua Kimmich has completed more passes (883), made more line-breaking passes (174) and created more chances (30) than any other player in the UEFA Champions League this season.
Odds correct at 1135 GMT (04/03/25)
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