Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Kylian Mbappe to score anytime at 6/4 (General)
0.5pt Kylian Mbappe to score 2+ goals at 8/1 (General)
1pt Jude Bellingham to be carded at 15/4 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 7/1
- Kylian Mbappe to score anytime
- Kylian Mbappe 2+ shots on target
- Julian Alvarez 1+ shot on target
- Jude Bellingham 2+ fouls
Atletico vs Real (Agg: 1-2)
Kick-off: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
TV: TNT Sports 3
Home 29/20 | Draw 5/2 | Away 13/8
The first leg left behind a bad taste.
Three brilliant goals within the first hour in what became an intriguing tactical battle - momentum ebbed and flowed.
In the 71st minute when 2-1 down, Diego Simeone brought off striker Antoine Griezmann for central defender Robin Le Normand and shut up shop.
Infuriating. The anguish has nothing to do with the pro-Atletico Madrid angle in the preview, honest.
There was a sickening amount of goodwill between the two clubs. Handshakes, smiles, respect and, crucially, only one card.
With the game in the balance, I sincerely hope there is more hostility on Wednesday. It is a Madrid derby after all and the stakes are ever so high.
In La Liga, Los Blancos moved ahead of Atletico at the weekend when both were involved in lower key Madrid derbies as warm-ups for this encounter, Real beating Rayo Vallecano on Sunday after Atleti lost at Getafe.
It leaves Simeone’s side a point off the title pace ahead of a monumental week in their season. They also host Barcelona on Sunday.
The clichéd small matter of Real's visit to the Metropolitano comes first though and odds wise, this game is a pick'em.
A goal to the good, Carlo Ancelotti's side are 3/10 with Sky Bet to qualify and under his tutelage, Real have progressed from all nine Champions League ties when they have taken a lead into the second leg.
I certainly won’t be trying to call this one though.
What are the best bets?
If a price is value, tout it.
Keep it simple at all times and please, whatever you do, don’t overthink it.
KYLIAN MBAPPE is 6/4 TO SCORE ANYTIME and that is simply too big, no matter which way you look at it.
Mbappe has a domestic goal per 90 average of 0.92. In the Champions League, it's 0.74.
It isn’t particularly insightful but the best players typically love the big occasions and Mbappe certainly relishes nights like this. That's bad news for Atleti.
Mbappe has 24 goals in 33 knockout appearances, six of which have seen him SCORE 2+ GOALS which is also worth a punt.
Los Blancos have a goal advantage which should mean they contain and counter on Wednesday and this can only be a good thing for these angles with the pace they have in their frontline.
Mbappe is certainly a man in form. He's scored 15 times in 2025 with 13 in his last 13 appearances.
The player card market is also worth a visit.
Referee Szymon Marciniak averages 4.2 cards a game in 19 Champions League knockout games, giving five or more on nine occasions and at least seven four times.
The first leg was unusually civil - the previous five meetings averaged 5.6 cards a game.
JUDE BELLINGHAM is one of the standout prices TO BE CARDED at 15/4.
The Englishman has averaged 0.26 cards per 90 in Spain and has six yellows and one red across 31 La Liga and Champions League appearances this term.
It is a small sample size but in a Real Madrid shirt, three of Bellingham’s five Champions League cards have come in six knockout appearances and he has two in six appearances against Atleti.
Team news
Clement Lenglet pulled out of Atleti’s game with Getafe on Sunday before kick off with a knock. Rodrigo De Paul also had to be replaced at half time.
According to reports though, both players should be fit to face Los Blancos, if not Conor Gallagher and Robin Le Normand will fill in.
Cesar Azpilicueta was also back in the squad on Sunday after an injury lay-off meaning captain Koke is the only player confirmed to be unavailable.
As for the visitors, Ancelotti should have both Thibaut Courtois and Antonio Rudiger available. The pair missed Sunday’s win over Rayo Vallecano but returned to training Monday.
Bellingham was absent in the first leg through suspension, so despite scoring the winning goal in the first leg Brahim Diaz will likely make way.
Predicted line-ups
Atletico Madrid: Oblak; Molina, Gimenez, Le Normand, Javi Galan; Simeone, Marcos Llorente, De Paul, Lino; Alvarez, Griezmann.
Real Madrid: Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Rudiger, Mendy; Tchouameni, Camavinga; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius Junior; Mbappe.
Match facts
- Atlético Madrid have lost the first leg in six previous UEFA Champions League ties and have come back to progress from three of them, with all three instances coming when they’ve lost the first leg away (2014-15 last 16 vs Bayer Leverkusen, 2015-16 quarter-final vs Barcelona and 2023-24 last 16 vs Inter).
- Real Madrid have progressed from 21 of their last 22 UEFA Champions League ties when they’ve won the first leg, with the exception against Ajax in the last 16 in 2018-19. Under Carlo Ancelotti, they’ve progressed from nine out of nine.
- Atlético Madrid have only lost one of their last seven home games against Real Madrid in all competitions (W3 D3). In home games against them in cup competitions, meanwhile, Atlético are unbeaten in the last five, winning four of them (D1).
- Since winning eight consecutive away games against Atlético Madrid between January 2008 and February 2014, Real Madrid have only won three of their last 17 away matches against them across all competitions (W7 D7).
- Atlético Madrid haven’t lost a UEFA Champions League knockout match at one of their home stadiums (Vicente Calderón and Metropolitano Stadium) since a 3-2 defeat to Ajax in March 1997 and are unbeaten in 18 since (W11 D7).
- This will be Carlo Ancelotti's 75th UEFA Champions League game as Real Madrid boss, becoming the first Los Blancos manager to reach this milestone in the competition and seventh coach to do so with a single team.
- Real Madrid are averaging 2.55 goals per game in the UEFA Champions League this season (28 in 11 games), their best in a season since 2016-17 (2.77). They’ve had more shots on target this season (78) than they had in 13 games last season (74).
- Julián Alvarez has been involved in at least one goal in each of his last five UEFA Champions League appearances for Atlético (6 goals, 1 assist). The only two Argentinean players to score or assist in six in a row are Claudio López (six in 1999 for Valencia) and Lionel Messi (eight in 2011-12 and six in 2014 for Barcelona).
- Rodrygo scored his 25th UEFA Champions League goal for Real Madrid in the first leg against Atlético Madrid. He’s the fourth-youngest player (24 years, 54 days) to score 25 for a team in the history of the competition, behind Lionel Messi for Barcelona (22 years, 286 days), Kylian Mbappé for PSG (22 years, 352 days) and Raul for Real Madrid (23 years, 252 days).
- Real Madrid’s Luka Modric is averaging 17.7 line-breaking passes per 90 in the UEFA Champions League this season; the most of any player with 300+ minutes played. Only two Real Madrid players made more than Modric (8) in the first leg, despite him only coming off the bench in the 62nd minute.
Odds correct at 1045 GMT (11/03/25)
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