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Champions League best bets and tips for 17 February 2026

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Mon February 16, 2026 · 1h ago

Football betting tips: Champions League

17:45 - Galatasaray vs Juventus

1pt Weston McKennie to score or assist at 11/5 (bet365)

20:00 - Benfica vs Real Madrid

1pt A penalty awarded at 9/5 (Boylesports, Betfred)

0.5pt Real Madrid to score a penalty at 9/2 (bet365)

20:00 - Monaco vs PSG

1pt Denis Zakaria to be carded at 3/1 (General)

1pt A sending off in the match at 3/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Galatasaray vs Juventus

Having watched him play for Leeds, I never thought I'd be tipping WESTON MCKENNIE TO SCORE OR ASSIST in a game, never mind at a price of 11/5. But, he's been playing in the number 10 position for Juventus this season and has been thriving.

Weston McKennie has been thriving in attack of late

Fresh from a two-assist game against Inter at the weekend and a goal against Lazio the game prior, it's fair to say the USA international has reinvented himself for the better.

In fact, across his last 19 starts across all competitions, this bet has landed 10 times, with McKennie delivering seven goals and four assists in that time. Data-wise he's averaging 0.47 expected goal involvements per 90 (xGI = xG + xA), making the price on offer look large.

Add in the fact that Juventus have been scoring a lot of goals recently, netting 38 goals in their last 20 matches (1.9 per game), and Galatasaray have allowed 1.73 xGA per game in the Champions League, and this bet should give us a run for our money.

Benfica vs Real Madrid

Tom has covered this game in much more detail but I couldn't not tip A PENALTY TO BE AWARDED in what should be a cracking game.

Real Madrid have been awarded the most penalties of any team across Europe this season, winning 16 in 32 matches across La Liga and Champions League, while Benfica have been awarded 10 in the Portuguese Primera Liga this season, highlighting that both sides have players capable.

The key for this bet though is the referee appointment of Francois Letexier, who has given 14 penalties in 25 career Champions League matches at an average of 0.56 per game. He clearly just loves giving spot-kicks.

It's 9/5 for another here and that looks large given all the above, and we'll also back REAL MADRID TO SCORE A PENALTY at 9/2. The chances are it's Madrid who are awarded a penalty if there is one, and Kylian Mbappe is the taker, netting 11 of the 12 he's taken this season. If it's not him, it'll be Vinicius Jr who scored both penalties at the weekend too.

Monaco vs PSG

Cards look the way into this all-French play-off given the man with the whistle is Jesus Gil Manzano. The Spaniard has averaged 5.21 cards per game over his career, and with how foul-heavy Monaco have been of late, we should expect him to be busy.

DENIS ZAKARIA looks a solid bet TO BE CARDED at 3/1. He's been carded in seven of his last 16 outings, and faces a very tricky PSG midfield who drew cards from both Monaco midfielders in the league meeting between these two.

We'll also back A RED CARD IN THE MATCH too at 3/1. Manzano has gone red-crazy this season, giving 11 players their marching orders in just 23 outings at an average of 0.48 per game.

Monaco have seen a red card in 12 of their last 31 matches, PSG have seen a red in seven of their last 20 and three of their last six Champions League contests. Oh, and there was a red in the league meeting between these sides.

The cherry on top is the fact that Manzano reffed PSG once in the UCL this season in their visit to Bayer Leverkusen and he showed a red card to both teams.

Odds correct at 13:00 GMT (16/02/26)

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