Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets for the latest Bundesliga action, with the two games affecting the title race in focus.
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
1pt e.w. Joshua Kimmich to score first in Bayern v Hertha at 20/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
Already advised:
1pt Karim Adeyemi to score anytime in Bochum v Dortmund at 10/3 (bet365)
Bayern Munich v Hertha Berlin
- 14:30 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
It's very likely we'll see a one-sided contest here.
Bayern Munich know they have to win games if they want to retain the title and a home contest against Hertha Berlin will be welcomed as a great opportunity to get back on track.
Hertha sit bottom of the Bundesliga table following a horrible run of form. They're winless in seven - five of those have ended in defeat.
They've been conceding at a worrying rate too - particularly in away games. The side from the capital shipped four against Dortmund and Leverkusen with three against them in games at Union and Leipzig.
You can take your pick from a number of Bayern scorers, but with 20/1 on offer, I'm having an each-way play on JOSHUA KIMMICH TO SCORE FIRST.
The reason for going first rather than just anytime is that his anytime price is 11/2, meaning that it makes more sense to back the first as you get the bigger anytime price as part of the each-way.
You're also getting the possibility of the bigger price for the first goal, and this is a player who scored against Manchester City in the Champions League a couple of weeks ago.
The crucial part there is that it was from a penalty, and it seems clear that he will be the one taking their spot kicks in the near future too. A big price is available on the penalty taker of the side heavily fancied to score a few.
His shot output in the Bundesliga has dropped since Thomas Tuchel's appointment but he more than played a part in the Champions League. The midfielder had five across their two contests with City.
Bochum v Borussia Dortmund
- 19:30 BST, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Mix
Five games remain. The title race IS in Borussia Dortmund's hands.
While a simple statement to say, five wins would see Dortmund lift the Meisterschale for the first time in 11 years. Pressure.
A Friday visit to Bochum may well be tricky given that they are fighting for survival, but it's far more preferable than facing one of those in the European picture.
It is a winnable game for the visitors. The Asian Handicap currently stands at -1 in their favour while the odds on offer float around the 1/2 mark across the board.
Instead, the value comes in looking at goalscorers at the 10/3 available on KARIM ADEYEMI TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Injury came at the wrong time for the forward, who was enjoying a run of three goals in three games, alongside an assist, before he was sidelined at the end of February.
His return includes two assists in the win over Eintracht Frankfurt last time out, with three shots coming in that game alongside a further three in their visit to Stuttgart the week before.
For what has been an injury-disrupted campaign, his underlying numbers are decent enough. He's averaged 0.26 goals/95 from 0.27 xG/95 - a good run in the team should see it improve.
Adeyemi's last two outings have returned 0.77 xG from his six shots and he will have opportunities on Friday - this is a Bochum side averaging a league-high 2.12 xGA per game.
Bundesliga: Weekend best bets
- 1pt Karim Adeyemi to score anytime in Bochum v Borussia Dortmund at 10/3 (bet365)
- 1pt e.w. Joshua Kimmich to score first in Bayern Munich v Hertha Berlin at 20/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
Odds correct at 1220 BST (27/04/23)
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