We're hoping for a high-scoring encounter as Dortmund meet Eintracht Frankfurt, with a 50/1 headline tip for the weekend Bundesliga action.
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
0.75pt e.w. Djibril Sow to score first in Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt at 50/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
1.5pts Bayern Munich to be winning at half-time v Mainz at 11/10 (General)
Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt
- 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Mix
Oh, Dortmund. What are you like.
Having backed them to beat Stuttgart last week, I was full of confidence as they held a two-goal advantage against ten men. Despite being knocked back to 2-2, they scored in the 92nd minute - relief.
It wasn't to be though as they conceded again. A team struggling to keep opponents out in a way that is costing them dearly in the title race.
With that in mind, it's well worth targeting the away side here, with an each-way play on the 50/1 available for DJIBRIL SOW TO SCORE FIRST providing the most appeal.
I was slightly surprised to see a price as big as this available for someone who is a regular feature in the Frankfurt midfield, particularly a player who has seen his attacking output increase after the break.
Prior to the World Cup, Sow was averaging 0.67 shots per game. Following the return, it's 1.17, with two goals coming in his last six outings. He's also on a run of posting at least one shot in each of his last seven in the league.
That translates to the underlying metrics too. He was averaging 0.06 xG/95 before, moving up to 0.11 xG/95 afterwards. Not a massive amount but a good jump which highlights the post-World Cup form.
The visitors will know they should have chances to strike in this game, making SOW an interesting bet at the prices available.
Mainz v Bayern Munich
- 14:30 GMT, Saturday
Bayern Munich's early Champions League exit has led to reports of expected chance in the near future - mainly surrounding CEO Oliver Kahn.
They need to ignore the outside noise though and regain focus with the Bundesliga title race still open at this stage of the season. They can't afford to slip up with Dortmund not far behind.
A trip to Mainz this weekend could prove to be tricky, with the hosts in the hunt for European football themselves. They sit two points behind Leverkusen in sixth.
One characteristic of this Bayern team is their ability to start games quickly, making BAYERN TO BE WINNING AT HALF-TIME an appealing bet at odds-against.
They are by far the strongest first-half team in Germany's top-flight. At the break, they've been leading in 22 of their 28 games this season.
Remarkably, they've not been behind at half-time all season, winning in 10 of their 14 on the road. From those games, they've only conceded five in the first-half - boasting a goal difference of +19.
Now, Mainz are not bad in this area too, but Bayern are on the next level. This is a team boasting a clean sheet at half-time in 71% of their away contests.
The Asian Handicap currently has the visitors at -1 full-time and -0.5 at half-time, showing that the money is backing them to be leading throughout.
Bundesliga: Weekend best bets
- 1.5pts Bayern Munich to be winning at half-time v Mainz at 11/10 (General)
- 0.75pt e.w. Djibril Sow to score first in Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt at 50/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
Odds correct at 1020 BST (20/04/23)
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