Tom Carnduff looks through the latest Bundesliga action, with three best bets backed in the Saturday contests.
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
2pts Bayer Leverkusen to beat Eintracht Frankfurt at 10/11 (General)
1.25pt Mainz (-1 handicap) to beat Werder Bremen at 2/1 (Sporting Index)
0.75pt Julian Chabot to score anytime in Augsburg v Köln at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
Bayer Leverkusen v Eintracht Frankfurt
- 14:30 BST, Saturday
Leverkusen have seen the drastic improvement they would have hoped for following the appointment of Xabi Alonso.
They've thrown themselves back into European contention, and a win over Saturday's opponents will see them move above them in the Bundesliga table.
Sixth place is more than up for grabs while they may even have one eye on the top-four given their recent form. A win here will be viewed as vital for their aspirations for midweek involvement next season.
At 10/11, the value is certainly there in taking BAYER LEVERKUSEN TO WIN.
Alonso's side have won their last six games in all competitions, a run that includes home success against Bayern Munich. They've beaten struggling Hertha and Schalke by three-goal margins too.
The visitors are wobbling at a stage where consistency is required. A 2-0 win over Union Berlin last time out would have been welcomed, but that was their first victory in all competitions since mid-February.
Apart from a mini-blip from the end of January into February, Leverkusen have been a strong home outfit under Alonso. The appeal comes in backing them to continue it on Saturday.
Mainz v Werder Bremen
- 14:30 BST, Saturday
Mainz are the Bundesliga's form team, with their run propelling them back into European contention after a pretty poor first-half of the season.
They're now seven games unbeaten in the league - five of which have been victories - with away success most recently coming at RB Leipzig.
That was also the fifth time since the World Cup break where they've scored at least three goals in a game. Confidence will be high ahead of the visit of Werder Bremen.
As you'd expected, the home side are odds-on, but the 2/1 available on MAINZ -1 HANDICAP provides appeal.
Bremen have won just three of their ten games since the restart, conceding at least two goals in seven of those. Away trips to Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt have seen this handicap covered.
Three of Mainz's four home league wins since the restart have all come by a two-goal or greater margin, setting this up to be a game that can see a repeat.
Augsburg v Köln
- 14:30 BST, Saturday
A tricky game to call as Köln go to Augsburg, with both sides realistically left with little to play for apart from aiming to finish top of the bottom-half.
Neither has been in particularly great form either, but it is a contest that provides value by targeting individual players - particularly the Köln centre-backs.
This game is a set-piece mismatch. Köln are one of the best teams in the Bundesliga for creating chances from these situations; Augsburg are one of the worst at defending them.
The visitors have created 10.29 xG from set-pieces this season - the third-highest in this metric - while Augsburg have conceded a league-high 11.46 (both stats via Opta Analyst).
Köln should see opportunities, making the 18/1 on JULIAN CHABOT TO SCORE ANYTIME worth a play.
The centre-back hasn't seen efforts in recent weeks but showings against those who are typically bad at defending set-pieces offers encouragement.
He had two shots against Bochum, three in two games against Stuttgart and one against Eintracht Frankfurt - those three teams sit in the top-seven in the defensive metric mentioned above.
Augsburg conceded a shot to each of Wolfsburg's centre-backs in their last game, while Nico Schlotterbeck scored from his two shots and Dortmund centre-back partner Mats Hummels had SIX when they won 4-3 in January.
We need Köln to get a few corners to give this a chance but they've demonstrated bravery in away games this season. CHABOT is a tad overpriced despite the fact he is yet to score this season.
Bundesliga: Weekend best bets
- 2pts Bayer Leverkusen to beat Eintracht Frankfurt at 10/11 (General)
- 1.25pt Mainz (-1 handicap) to beat Werder Bremen at 2/1 (Sporting Index)
- 0.75pt Julian Chabot to score anytime in Augsburg v Köln at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
Odds correct at 1340 BST (05/04/23)
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