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Our best bets from the Bundesliga

Bundesliga tips, best bets, predictions and previews: Matchday 24 picks

By Tom Carnduff
Football
Sun March 12, 2023 · 3y ago

The Bundesliga continues with a number of intriguing games on Matchday 24. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.

Football betting tips: Bundesliga

2pts Over 2.5 Goals in Wolfsburg v Union Berlin at 13/10 (General)

1pt Jude Bellingham to score anytime in Schalke v Dortmund at 5/1 (General)

1pt Julian Chabot to score anytime in Köln v Bochum at 16/1 (Unibet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Wolfsburg v Union Berlin

Wolfsburg's season has been a strange one. A slow start was then met with a strong run leading into the World Cup break, although it felt like they'd left themselves too much to do to break into the top-four.

Recent results has further strengthened the possibility of them missing out on European football altogether, but they are made favourites given Union Berlin's Europa League involvement either side of this game.

It could still be an entertaining contest and the 13/10 on OVER 2.5 GOALS provides appeal.

You never truly know which Wolfsburg side are going to turn up, with their ability to attack seemingly always matched by their inability to defend.

They've won 5-0 and 6-0 since the World Cup break, but have also lost 3-0 and 4-2 in home encounters. Their last game saw this bet a winner inside 26 minutes as they drew 2-2 with Eintracht Frankfurt.

No side has seen three or more goals scored in home Bundesliga games this season than Wolfsburg (82%). They've also seen a league-high 4.00 goals per game average in the 11 contests in front of their own supporters.

OVER 2.5 GOALS has also been a winner in three of Union's four away league games since the restart, making it the value pick in Sunday's late contest.

Schalke v Borussia Dortmund

If we asked the question a month ago about who would win this game, the answer would be Dortmund without hesitation.

That's not to say the visitors shouldn't be the odds-on favourites to once again secure bragging rights in the Revierderby, but Schalke's recent form has given them a serious chance of survival.

They found themselves seven points adrift at the bottom of the standings as we approached February, yet an unbeaten run has now moved them level with Stuttgart in 15th.

Just the single point separates Hertha in 14th and Bochum in last - Schalke have found a confidence about them that may actually lead to a previously unthinkable Bundesliga survival.

Dortmund can respond following a disappointing midweek though, and taking the 5/1 on JUDE BELLINGHAM TO SCORE ANYTIME provides appeal.

The midfielder should continue to operate in a slightly more advanced role, and we can expect to see the away side enjoy the better of the chances on goal here.

I'm often surprised by the generous prices available on Bellingham to score when I explore the markets for Dortmund games. These odds can be expected for some midfielders, but not one who has a track record of contributing goals.

He's scored ten in 32 games across all competitions this season, with no Dortmund player averaging more shots per Bundesliga game (2.0). Two of his last three starts have each returned at least three shots.

Bellingham's season-high shot count of five came in the reverse fixture - one Dortmund secured a 1-0 victory in - with his efforts totalling a considerable 0.60 xG that day.

With a huge chance in midweek not taken, I'm more than happy to back BELLINGHAM and Dortmund to respond at the prices available.

Köln v Bochum

Bochum are enduring a torrid time, losing seven of their last eight as they've slid to bottom of the Bundesliga table.

Remarkably, their only win in that run was a 5-2 hammering of Hoffenheim. It's far from brilliant though, and they will at least be hopeful of survival based on the fact that one point separates them and Hertha in 14th.

Despite defeat in their last home game, Köln's recent form in front of their own supporters has been strong. They were unbeaten in four before the loss against Wolfsburg - three of which were victories.

It's therefore no surprise to see them odds-on here, but the eye-catching play comes in the 16/1 best price on JULIAN CHABOT TO SCORE ANYTIME.

I backed him (unsuccessfully) a couple of weeks ago, but I still hold enough confidence in performances to go in again at generous odds.

Bochum are bad at everything, but defending set-pieces is certainly up there. The underlying numbers are far from favourable with only Augsburg and Wolfsburg conceding a higher set-piece xGA across the course of the season so far.

Naturally, the amount of chances faced adds into this, but we can expect to see Köln rack up the corner count. They'll view this as a game where they can win with goals.

After all, they took ten corners in that defeat to Wolfsburg, and they should be on the front foot throughout. Chabot will get opportunities to contribute in attack.

He wins an average of 4.3 aerial duels per match - the highest in this Köln squad - while also posting at least one shot in two of his last three league outings.

Köln centre-back Nikola Soldo had two shots when the sides last met. They were high quality chances equating to 0.57 xG, and we can expect to see his replacement CHABOT get some efforts on goal.

Odds correct at 0835 GMT (09/03/23)

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