Tom Carnduff picks out three best bets for the Bundesliga action this weekend, with selections ranging from 7/5 to 4/1.
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
2pts Over 3.5 goals in RB Leipzig v Hertha Berlin at 7/5 (General)
1pt Leon Goretzka to score anytime in Bayern Munich v Freiburg at 4/1 (William Hill)
1pt Grischa Prömel to have 3+ total shots in Schalke v Hoffenheim at 16/5 (Ladbrokes)
Bayern Munich v Freiburg
- 18:30 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Arena
It's an unexpected clash between two sides at the top end of the table - in the sense that Freiburg sit above Bayern Munich after nine games.
Julian Nagelsmann's side have struggled to secure a consistent run of wins in the Bundesliga this season, although the Champions League has been good to them with a maximum 12 points gained from four games.
They beat Viktoria Plzen 4-2 in midweek, with the hosts' two consolation goals coming after Bayern had started to rest players, and they will be hoping to use the confidence gained from that win here.
Freiburg have been in great form though, losing just one of their opening nine games and scoring two goals in each of their last three across all competitions.
Bayern are a short 3/10 for success, but the biggest appeal comes in backing LEON GORETZKA TO SCORE ANYTIME at a best price of 4/1.
He's a player I have tipped plenty of times in the past but one that has delivered - the value always seems to be there for the midfielder to strike.
Goretzka comes into this game on the back of two goals and an assist against Plzen, while he also scored in their last league game - a draw away at Dortmund.
Despite missing part of the season, Goretzka has had two or more shots in each of his three Bundesliga starts - while he has taken two in three of his four Champions League outings.
This is a value bet on a player in great form.
Schalke v Hoffenheim
- 19:30 BST, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
Schalke have found points difficult to gain on their return to the Bundesliga, winning just one of their first nine fixtures with five of those ending in defeat.
Despite mixed form in recent weeks, Hoffenheim remain 7th in the Bundesliga table and they will hold confidence of securing victory against a struggling side.
Hoffenheim have established themselves as one of the strongest attacks in the German top-flight. They boast the fourth-best open play xG with their 11 goals bettered only by three teams.
A point of improvement could be their set-pieces, although that shouldn't matter too much on Friday night.
Only Augsburg and Bochum are averaging more shots against per game than Schalke (15.6), while those same two teams are the only ones with a worse open play xGA figure.
Despite that, it's Die Königsblauen who have conceded the highest amount from open play (17), while only three teams have allowed more from free-kicks and corners.
At a best price of 16/5, the value comes in backing GRISCHA PRÖMEL TO HAVE 3+ TOTAL SHOTS in the game.
The midfielder has been enjoying a strong run of games with a high amount of shots - three of his last four outings have had at least three with the one game that fell short seeing two.
In total, five of his nine Bundesliga appearances have seen three shots taken, which includes the games against Augsburg and Bochum.
RB Leipzig v Hertha Berlin
- 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
The good news for the neutral is that this should be a high-scoring game, with both teams demonstrating the ability to strike while also having defensive issues.
BTTS has won in 67% of Hertha's game this season - only Köln and Werder Bremen have a higher total - while they have scored two in three of their last five league outings.
For Leipzig, they've been involved in some high scoring games since Marco Rose took charge. One team has scored at least three in four of their seven games following that switch in the dugout.
Leipzig have done the scoring in three of those, netting 2+ goals in four under Rose, with three of those coming in the last four.
It's a lot of numbers - sorry - but to summarise it means we should see plenty of chances, and backing OVER 3.5 GOALS looks the most appealing play in this game.
Hertha's overall games/goals tally is impacted by some low scoring contests at the beginning of the campaign - they had back-to-back 1-0 losses in August - but the underlying numbers highlight it should have been more.
They have underperformed their xGF metric while over-performing on xGA. Basically, they've scored fewer than they should have and conceded more than the 12 on their tally.
Leipzig are averaging 2.03 xGF per game under Rose, with 1.37 xGA meaning Hertha should have opportunities to strike.
Bundesliga: Weekend best bets
- 2pts Over 3.5 goals in RB Leipzig v Hertha Berlin at 7/5 (General)
- 1pt Leon Goretzka to score anytime in Bayern Munich v Freiburg at 4/1 (William Hill)
- 1pt Grischa Prömel to have 3+ total shots in Schalke v Hoffenheim at 16/5 (Ladbrokes)
Odds correct at 1200 BST (13/10/22)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.