Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets for the Bundesliga action this weekend, with two games at 14:30 BST in focus.
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
1.5pts Over 3.5 goals in RB Leipzig v Borussia Dortmund at 6/4 (General)
1pt Joshua Kimmich to score anytime in Bayern Munich v Stuttgart at 5/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Bayern Munich v Stuttgart
- 14:30 BST, Saturday
Bayern Munich secured victory in their Champions League midweek encounter against Inter, and they return to Bundesliga action by welcoming Stuttgart.
The visitors have been inconsistent in terms of performances, lucky to secure a point against Schalke and really unlucky not to get more than one against Köln.
Bayern have, unsurprisingly, started the season in great fashion. They have suffered back-to-back 1-1 draws in the league though - a disaster by Bayern's usual high levels.
They probably should have beaten Union though, and against Mönchengladbach they ran into a record-breaking Yann Sommer performance.
We can expect victory here, although at 1/9 there simply is no appeal in any outright market. Instead, we're looking at the goalscorers and taking JOSHUA KIMMICH TO SCORE ANYTIME.
He's firmly established himself as one of the top midfielders in the game. Naturally in a holding role, he's been superb in terms of attacking under Julian Nagelsmann this season.
Kimmich has scored twice this season, with nine shots and a 0.09 xG average per game. That's low, but demonstrates his ability to make the most of opportunities from distance.
He had a huge total of four shots on target against Inter on Wednesday. All of his five efforts came from outside the area, totalling 0.19 xG.
It's 10/1 that he scores from outside the area, which is worth considering if you want something bigger, but the 5/1 is more than good enough to provide appeal.
RB Leipzig v Borussia Dortmund
- 14:30 BST, Saturday
It's a shame that this hasn't been selected as one of the televised games because there is the potential for it to be highly-entertaining.
Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd in the Bundesliga standings after five games - only topped by Freiburg on goal difference - and their actual figures have backed the expected metrics.
Leipzig opted to sack Domenico Tedesco following Tuesday's 4-1 hammering by Shakhtar in the Champions League, and Marco Rose will meet his former employers just days into his new job.
At 6/4, we're backing OVER 3.5 GOALS in the contest. This won in four of the last five meetings between these two clubs.
Rose's Dortmund side scored the second-most goals in the Bundesliga last season (85) but they conceded the most goals of any side who finished in the top-eight (52).
Leipzig have strength in attack they just struggled to find a way to fully utilise it in what was a disjointed looking team under Tedesco this season.
Rose needs time, and you can make a strong case that Leipzig do as well, but he has enough to work with in the short-term to try and make the desire impact.
Rather than gamble on the result, we're happy enough with the value on offer in the goals.
Bundesliga: Weekend best bets
- 1.5pts Over 3.5 goals in RB Leipzig v Borussia Dortmund at 6/4 (General)
- 1pt Joshua Kimmich to score anytime in Bayern Munich v Stuttgart at 5/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Odds correct at 1055 BST (09/09/22)
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