Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Over 3.5 goals at 6/5 (Paddy Power, Unibet, Bet MGM)
Brighton host Tottenham in either side's first game post Christmas, the Seagulls were held at Selhurst Park and Tottenham scraped past Everton.
With European action to balance alongside domestic duties, the Seagulls are suffering the consequences of their packed schedule.
Roberto De Zerbi’s side won four of their opening five games but have since only won seven of their last 20 games, that said, topping their Europa League group and sitting 9th in the top flight is not bad going.
Victory for Spurs at the Amex would lift them back on level points with Aston Villa and potentially to within three points off the top of the table, with North London rivals Arsenal playing later that evening.
What are the best bets?
This is a pick ‘em, so siding with goals seems much more sensible.
Tottenham have had no issues finding the net (37) but are shipping an average of 1.33 goals a game. This average could grow significantly across the next month as Cristian Romero hobbled off at half time in the win over Everton. This leaves Ange Postecoglou without a first choice centre back for the trip to the south coast.
Unwavering in his approach, the Spurs supremo will continue with the highline but without either of his pacey first choice players will most likely field a defence of four full backs.
Spurs lost Romero and Micky van de Ven in the 4-1 defeat against Chelsea. They have since played three games without the pair, shipping two against Wolves and Aston Villa and three against Manchester City, picking up a solitary point across those fixtures.
At odds against, OVER 3.5 GOALS appeals here.
BuildABet @ 10/1
- Over 4.5 goals
- Heung-min Son to score anytime
- Evan Ferguson to score anytime
In what promises to be a goal laden clash, it makes sense to get the two sides talisman on side. Heung-min Son is amongst the pack chasing Erling Haaland with goals to his name and he scored what proved to be the match winner against Everton.
Evan Ferguson may be more of a plan in Europe but often leads the line domestically with six goals in 920 minutes of top flight action.
Team news
Between them, Brighton and Spurs will be without 16 players on Thursday.
Kaoru Mitoma became Roberto De Zerbi’s most recent casualty as he was forced off in the 83rd minute against Crystal Palace. After the winger left Selhurst Park on crutches, it seems unlikely he will be fit to start here.
In more positive news, Danny Welbeck managed a 45 minute cameo against the Eagles during which he bagged the equaliser. The former England international may have to settle for a spot on the bench once more as he is nursed back to match fitness.
Postecoglou has Destiny Udogie back at his disposal following a suspension and the left back will come straight back into the defence most likely made up entirely of full backs. Ben Davies and Emerson Royal at its heart with Pedro Porro on the right.
Yves Bissouma is unavailable after his red card at the City Ground, Oliver Skipp should fill the void in midfield.
Predicted line-ups
Brighton: Verbruggen; Hinshelwood, Van Hecke, Dunk, Igor; Baleba, Gilmour; Adingra, Gross, Buonanotte; Ferguson.
Tottenham: Vicario; Porro, Dier, Davies, Udogie; Skipp, Sarr; Johnson, Kulusevski, Son; Richarlison.
Match facts
- Brighton have lost their last two Premier League home games against Tottenham without scoring; they’d only lost once and scored every time in their first four at the Amex Stadium against them (W2 D1).
- Tottenham did the league double over Brighton last season – it’s the fifth time they’ve won consecutive league matches against the Seagulls but have never won three in a row before.
- Tottenham have scored in six of their last eight meetings with Brighton in all competitions, with former striker Harry Kane finding the net at least once in each of those games. The last time Spurs netted in a game against the Seagulls without Kane on the scoresheet was a 1-0 win in April 2019 (Christian Eriksen).
- Brighton haven’t won their final league game in any of the last three calendar years, losing to Arsenal at home in both 2020 and 2022, and at Chelsea in 2021.
- Brighton are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League home games (W3 D4), since a 3-1 loss to West Ham in August. Indeed, three of the Seagulls’ last four home league defeats have come against London sides (Arsenal, Fulham, West Ham).
- Brighton have scored in each of their last 17 Premier League home games since a 1-0 loss against Fulham in February. However, they’ve also conceded in each of their last 12 at the Amex Stadium since beating Manchester United 1-0 in May.
- After a seven-game winless run away from home between February and May (D2 L5), Tottenham have lost just one of their last 10 on the road in the Premier League (W6 D3), going down 2-1 at Wolves last month.
- Tottenham have only failed to score in one of their 20 Premier League away games in 2023, finding the net in each of their last 15 on the road since a 1-0 defeat at Wolves in March.
Odds correct at 1800 GMT (27/12/23)
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