Brighton are flying high as they welcome Tottenham on Saturday night football. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, providing his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Brighton to win Draw no Bet at evens (General)
Brighton are looking more and more legitimate as the weeks go by.
The Seagulls generated 2.01 xGF away at Liverpool last weekend, which is no mean feat. In fact the last team to generate 2+ xG was Manchester City some 30 Liverpool home games ago, back in February of 2021.
That speaks to the strides the club and team continue to make, and the managerial appointment of Roberto De Zerbi was an inspired one that should see them maintain their upward trajectory.
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Brighton 17/10 | Draw 12/5 | Tottenham 6/4
Brighton currently occupy fourth in Infogol's expected points (xP) per game table, highlighting their impressive start to the season is no fluke.
They have averaged 2.04 xGF and 1.30 xGA per game to start the new season, which is an elite level process.
Their home form - usually the major issue for the Seagulls - has improved, while performances at the Amex have remained at a strong level.
They have won two and drawn one, but their record really should be three wins, being unfortunate not to beat Newcastle (xG: BHA 1.97 - 0.18 NEW).
Granted, all three performances at the Amex have been under the now-departed Graham Potter, but De Zerbi is another top coach, so maintaining the same level shouldn't be as difficult as many may have imagined.
All of that spells trouble for a Tottenham team who have had major issues on the road so far this season.
Spurs have won just one of four away games in the Premier League, and one in six if we include the Champions League, losing the xG battle in three of four domestically and four of six including European contests.
Of their domestic road encounters - across which they have allowed an average of 1.58 xGA per game - the three games they lost the xG battle have come against teams who finished in the top seven last season - and who sat in the top 10 of Infogol's xG table.
Brighton finished ninth and ranked seventh in the xG table, hinting that Spurs could again have their work cut out, and that, along with the impressive figures around Brighton, is why I want to get the hosts on side.
Undoubtedly, Tottenham have incredible quality in forward areas, which is the only reason I'm hesitant to back Brighton straight up at a big price.
Instead, backing BRIGHTON TO WIN DRAW NO BET appeals at even money as a safer proposition.
This bet gives us a winner if Brighton win the game, and our money back should the game end all square. The only way we lose money is if Spurs win the match.
Brighton v Tottenham score prediction and best bets
- 2pts Brighton to win Draw no Bet at evens (General)
Score prediction: Brighton 2-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct 1500 BST (06/10/22)
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