Champions League-chasing Newcastle head to relegation-threatened Bournemouth on Saturday. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game and provides a best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Newcastle to win to nil at 29/20 (BetVictor)
Are Newcastle slowing?
Since the restart, the Magpies have drawn four of six matches, collecting just 10 points from a possible 18. In the six previous they collected 16. Their issue of late has been scoring goals, with Eddie Howe's side netting just five times in those six games - three of them coming at Leicester.
While the results would suggest a tailing off of some sort, the underlying data certainly doesn't. The Magpies have averaged 1.88 xGF and 0.80 xGA per game since the World Cup break, suggesting they are still very much one of the better teams in the league.
A visit to a struggling Bournemouth could be just the game for them to remind everyone of that.
Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Bournemouth 11/2 | Draw 16/5 | Newcastle 1/2
The Cherries sit second-bottom of the table, have won once in 12 - losing nine times in that period.
Since the break, Gary O'Neil's side have lost five of six, failing to score in any of those defeats, which is a trend I can see continuing here, making NEWCASTLE WIN TO NIL appeal.
In that six-game span, Bournemouth have generated just 0.86 xGF per game - the lowest average in the league - while shipping 1.83 xGA per game. They are poor at both ends.
With Newcastle boasting the league's best defensive process since the restart, the chances of a struggling attacking team breaching the Magpies seems slim, while the creation shown by Howe's men suggests more goals could be on the horizon.
Against top-half opponents this season, Bournemouth have a W0, D3, L8 record, with seven of those defeats coming to nil. In those games they have averaged 0.68 xGF and 2.02 xGA per game, which doesn't bode well ahead of this weekend.
Bournemouth v Newcastle best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Newcastle to win to nil at 29/20 (BetVictor)
Score prediction: Bournemouth 0-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (09/02/22)
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