The Sky Bet Championship's bottom side Wigan visit north-west rivals Blackburn on Monday night. Michael Beardmore provides the preview and two best bets.
Football betting tips: Championship
1pt Draw at half-time 23/20 (Sporting Index)
0.5pt Ben Amos to be shown a card at 14/1 (bet365)
Shaun Maloney begins his reign as Wigan manager with a trip to Ewood Park on Monday night as the Sky Bet Championship’s bottom side visit promotion hopefuls Blackburn Rovers.
It’s been a chastening last few weeks and months for the Latics, who have lost 12 of their past 17 games, winning just once in that run and sacking two managers in the process.
Promotion-winning boss Leam Richardson departed in November and Kolo Toure lasted just nine matches, failing to pick up a single win and overseeing three successive 4-1 defeats as Wigan slipped to the foot of the second tier.
This is a big game for them – but also for Blackburn, who are slowly sliding down the table after five defeats in eight and in danger of letting their promotion hopes fade just like they did last term.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Monday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Blackburn 19/20 | Draw 5/2 | Wigan 14/5
On the face of things, the even-money top price around the hosts should tempt here when you consider it’s sixth, at time of writing, hosting 24th.
But Rovers have definitely dipped and their underlying numbers are real cause for concern – Infogol’s expected goals (xG) metric suggests they should be involved in a relegation battle not a promotion race, placing them some 15 positions lower.
Wigan, by contrast, appear to have been incredibly unfortunate to sit bottom of the pile, having conceded 49 goals from just 37.1 expected goals against (xGA). They should, on balance of chances created at either end, sit seven places higher.
Then when you add the ‘new manager bounce’ Wigan are hoping for – plus some decent transfer business in the January window – backing Blackburn doesn’t look such a formality.
A stat that intrigues me is that 13 of Wigan’s 28 Championship matches this season have been level at the break, almost 50%.
With a new manager in, he will want to stem the tide of goals that have been going in – a division-high 49 – and with Blackburn not in great scoring form, just nine in nine, this could be a tight one.
It’s therefore worth looking at the HALF-TIME DRAW bet at 23/20 as a result – I reckon 0-0 is the likeliest interval outcome but even if Rovers do net, 1-1 is a possibility as Wigan usually score too. They have done so in 22 of their 28 games.
Call me a sucker for the new manager impact but I fancy Wigan to get something from this when factoring in their underlying process, January recruitment and Rovers’ own dip and poor numbers but it’s tough to justify backing a team winless in nine.
If you agree, then a smarter, long-shot shout could be to back Latics goalkeeper BEN AMOS TO BE SHOWN A CARD at 14/1.
He’s already been booked twice this season and if Wigan have anything to protect – even a point – Amos might incur the official’s wrath at some stage in what could be a feisty derby given both sides' aspirations.
Blackburn v Wigan score prediction and best bets
- Draw at half-time 23/20 (Sporting Index)
- Ben Amos to be shown a card at 14/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Blackburn 1-1 Wigan (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1730 GMT (02/02/23)
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