Liam Kelly previews an in-form Middlesbrough side's trip to face Blackburn, forecasting another good effort from the away side at Ewood Park.
Football betting tips: Championship
1pt Middlesbrough to win at 21/10 (William Hill)
An important fixture in regards to the promotion and play-off picture.
Blackburn's aspirations took a hit in midweek, not performing to their previous level in a 2-0 defeat at strugglers Hull on Wednesday (xG: HUL 2.68 - 1.27 BLA), missing out on a chance to move into an automatic spot.
Things only get more difficult here, hosting a Middlesbrough team that enter the contest with six wins in their last seven Championship matches, proving to be a force under Chris Wilder.
Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Monday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Blackburn 6/4 | Draw 11/5 | Middlesbrough 19/5
Boro will fancy their chances against a weakened Rovers team, too, with the home side expected to be without star man Ben Brereton Díaz for Monday's match-up.
Scheduled to play in Chile's World Cup qualifiers next week, the league's second-highest scorer will be sorely missed by an attack that relies upon him so heavily.
Brereton Díaz has scored his 20 goals from 17.38 expected goals (xG), accounting for 45.3% of Blackburns total xG this season.
His threat, or lack thereof in this game, will undoubtedly give Middlesbrough confidence to move forward at Ewood Park, and Blackburn's underlying numbers don't instill too much confidence defensively.
Rovers have conceded a higher expected goals against (xGA) total than any other team in the Championship's top half, a relative weakness that a rejuvenated Middlesbrough can exploit.
Since Chris Wilder took charge, Boro have gained 20 points from a possible 27, allowing an average of just 0.90 xGA per game while shipping only six goals in nine matches.
Although they've needed very late winners in each of their last two league fixtures, Middlesbrough have been more than value for three points in each of a four-game win streak, displaying the ability to create chances as well as limiting them.
Boro have recorded xG totals of 3.10, 2.31, 2.70 and 1.93 in those four games, so it's a little surprising to see the away side available at anything above 2/1. Therefore, MIDDLESBROUGH TO WIN is the selection.
With the absence of Ben Brereton Díaz a huge factor here, Tony Mowbray will struggle to fill the void up against a club where he is considered a legend.
Back the in-form visitors to win.
Blackburn v Middlesbrough best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Middlesbrough to win at 21/10 (BetVictor)
Score prediction: Blackburn 0-2 Middlesbrough (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 1540 GMT (21/01/22)
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