Jake Pearson scours the Betfair Exchange Asian handicap markets ahead of the latest round of Premier League fixtures, identifying where the value may lie according to his own pricing model.
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What is the Asian Handicap?
The Asian Handicap is a betting market where one team is awarded a virtual head start based on the assumption that the other team is superior. The punter can select how much of a head start a team can have.
Asian Handicaps reduce the match to just two prices by eliminating the draw. There are numerous types of handicap bets - half goal (0.5, 1.5 etc) whole goal (0.0,1.0 etc), as well as quarter goal (0.25 and 0.75).
Liverpool v Watford
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
Title-chasing Liverpool take on second-bottom Watford at Anfield in the first Premier League match following the international break and it is difficult to disagree with the majority of the layers here. The Asian line currently set at -2.5; pretty much exactly as I have it.
Brighton v Norwich
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
The Premier League’s two most out-of-form teams meet at the Amex as Brighton take on Norwich, with both sides failing to pick up a single point across their last six matches. The Seagulls are a goal better than Dean Smith’s side, and with the Asian line agreeing, no play is recommended here.
Burnley v Man City
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Burnley are on a run of three successive defeats and relegation is looking more and more ominous. I make Manchester City just over two goals (2.07) better than Burnley, which makes their win price 1.24 – no value to be had in this one I’m afraid.
Chelsea v Brentford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
For all Chelsea's off-field issues, there does seem to be legs in siding with Thomas Tuchel’s men at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea are one of the teams I most often disagree with the layers about, actually rating them much higher, and here I make them just shy of two goals better than Brentford.
The handicap line of -1.25 makes appeal, while odds-against for -1.5 is also of interest.
Leeds v Southampton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
When modelling sports there is an element of initiative needed, for example, when a team parts ways with their manager and a new coach takes charge. Even so, I don’t rate Leeds any differently to the layers, with Southampton given 0.27 of a goal head start – mainly due to Leeds' home advantage. The Saints are on a four-game losing streak, but still no bet is recommended in this fixture.
Wolves v Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Despite losing their last two – against West Ham and Arsenal – Aston Villa have been performing well of late, and this is a tough one to call. Wolves are rated slightly higher in this fixture, but the handicaps reflect that, so another to avoid from a betting perspective.
Manchester United v Leicester
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
Two unpredictable teams make for a tough betting heat, both having the quality to really hurt the other on their day. For all the negative sentiment around Old Trafford, United are certainly having a better season than Leicester, and that is reflected in their rating – 1.16 of a goal better than Brendan Rodgers’ men. Unfortunately, it is also reflected in the prices.
West Ham v Everton
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
After claiming a huge – if slightly fortunate – victory over Newcastle in their last Premier League outing, Frank Lampard’s Everton were handed yet another body blow in the shape of a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Crystal Palace in the FA Cup. West Ham may have followed their historic Europa League victory over Sevilla with a 3-1 defeat to Tottenham in the league, but still represent a major challenge for the Toffees. Prices look correct though.
Tottenham v Newcastle
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
Tottenham finally broke their win-a-game-lose-a-game streak with successive victories over Brighton and West Ham, putting them ahead of Manchester United and three points behind fourth-placed Arsenal.
They face a Newcastle side who are all but clear of danger after their Eddie Howe-inspired revival, but the Magpies are a team my ratings often throw up as overestimated by the layers.
Quantifying something such as a new manager is difficult in modelling terms, but the bare numbers do give you a grounded approach to a team’s upturn in form, and how much over/under-reaction there has been.
In this instance I have Spurs rated as 1.38 of a goal better than the Toon, so the pick em’ split around Tottenham -1.0 makes appeal.
Crystal Palace v Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Monday
A place in the top four is Arsenal’s to lose now, though an away trip to former Gunners skipper Patrick Vieira’s Crystal Palace is no easy assignment. Both sides reside in the top 10 in terms of their form over the last six league matches, and the assumption that Arsenal are half a goal better off - as the handicap line suggests - strikes me as correct.
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