Football betting tips: La Liga, Ligue 1, Serie A
Sunday 19:45
0.5pt Adrien Rabiot and Jonathan Rowe to be carded in Milan vs Bologna at 10/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Rabiot and Rowe to be sent off at 900/1 (bet365)
0.5pt A red card in the match in Rennes vs Lyon at 6/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt A red card each team in Rennes vs Lyon at 125/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Tyler Morton to be carded in Rennes vs Lyon at 4/1 (bet365)
Milan vs Bologna
- Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 BST
- TV: DAZN
- Live odds, form and stats
I’ve had this one in the diary for a few weeks, as I am sure a few have since news broke of a training ground bust-up between ADRIEN RABIOT and JONATHAN ROWE at Marseille.
It resulted in the pair both getting immediately transfer listed. Rabiot got offloaded to Milan and Rowe to Bologna which sumptuously allows them to reconvene at San Siro in Serie A this Sunday. Or does it…
I simply couldn't not tip the pair in a CARD DOUBLE, however, it comes with a pretty big caveat. There is a strong possibility that neither will play.
Rowe was an unused sub in his side's 1-0 win over Como and Milan haven’t played since Rabiot signed on September 1.
Nonetheless, keep your eyes peeled for team news on Sunday evening and if they do both play, I’ll be having a nibble on the RED CARD double at 900/1 with bet365. If they don't play, rest assured the bets will be void by bet365.
Rennes vs Lyon
- Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 BST
- TV: Amazon Prime
- Live odds, form and stats
Lyon have made the perfect start to the Ligue 1 season taking maximum points from three games and they are yet to concede a goal.
This is not a fluke either, according to the underlying data.
In the 1-0 win over 10-man Marseille, they only conceded five shots and an xGA of 0.77. In the 3-0 win over Metz they only let up two shots on target and didn’t concede a ‘big chance’ (shot with xG value over 0.40). In the 1-0 win at Lens, they gave up an xGA of 1.38 but the hosts' best effort had an xG value of 0.23.
They head to Rennes without Georges Mikautadze, who has left for Villarreal.
The hosts' start to the season has been marred by RED CARDS. Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal was sent off in the win over Marseille and Mahdi Camara and Christopher Wooh were both sent off inside 15 minutes in the 4-0 defeat at Lorient.
Considering this, the red card market is worth a look here.
Ruddy Buquet is the referee. He was actually demoted to Ligue 2 last season after he failed a fitness test but in the French top flight in 2023/24 he dished out seven red cards in 17 appearances. The season before he sent 11 players off in 22 appearances which means across his last 39 Ligue 1 matches, he has sent off at least one player in 44% of the games.
A RED CARD IN THE GAME and A RED CARD EACH TEAM are worth a punt.
I also cannot resist TYLER MORTON’s price TO BE CARDED.
The Englishman is yet to have his name taken in France but has committed two fouls in two of his three appearances.
His card record in the English Championship was impressive as well. He picked up 15 yellows and one red cards across two seasons and 79 starts for Blackburn and Hull (0.25 cards per 90).
Barcelona vs Valencia
- Kick-off: Sunday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Premier Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Even as someone with relatively limited La Liga knowledge, I know Lamine Yamal is good at football.
He has scored two - one of which came from the spot - and set up another two in three league appearances for Barcelona this season.
Yamal has also had 20 shots, made seven key passes (pass leading to a shot), drawn seven fouls, completed seven tackles and committed four fouls.
He’s all-action alright.
Against Rayo Vallecano, his direct opponent didn’t complete a single tackle but committed three fouls and was booked. Against Levante, the left wing-back completed nine tackles and against Mallorca the left-back completed three tackles and committed a foul.
So, naturally, I was drawn to the foul and card markets for Valencia’s left back.
JOSE GAYA is the visitors first choice left-back. He was carded in the first game and then sent off in the second. According to the club, he served his suspension against Getafe and is back available on Sunday. So, I thought, price permitting, I could just tout him TO BE CARDED here but that is the issue, no firms have priced him.
JESUS VAZQUEZ filled in at left-back last game and his cards record is okay (0.15 cards per 90).
For the time being, we are at the mercy of team news.
Odds correct at 1200 BST (12/09/25)
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