Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 (bet365)
0.5pt No goalscorer at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 35/1
- Bayern Munich 10+ corners
- Bayern Munich 15+ shots
- Federico Dimarco 1+ shot on target
After stumbling through the Champions League league phase, and bumbling past Celtic in the knockout round, the last 16 was much more like it from Bayern Munich, who dominated Bayer Leverkusen 5-0 over two legs.
Inter meanwhile cruised straight into the last 16 and then eased past Feyenoord 4-1 on aggregate, and it's fair to say both these sides are capable of going all the way.
Vincent Kompany's side have lost just two of their 18 games across all competitions since the Bundesliga's winter break, winning 13, while Inter are unbeaten in 10 across all competitions following a mini wobble in early February.
Both sides are top of their respective leagues, meaning this will be an extremely competitive two legs with very little between the sides.
What are the best bets?
With that being the case, we should expect chances and goals to be at a premium over the two legs.
Not only are the two sides closely matched, but Inter especially will be happy for this tie to be one of extremely fine margins.
With UNDER 2.5 GOALS priced near even-money, that takes the bacon as the best bet in this first leg.
Simone Inzaghi's side have been the unders kings in Europe, with seven of their 10 going seeing fewer than three goals.
Their only games to go over the line came against Feyenoord in the second leg of a tie that was over after the first match, Monaco at home in a game the French side were reduced to 10-men after 12 minutes, and at home to rank awful Crvena Zvezda.
All of their five away games have seen the unders click, including against top sides Manchester City pre-Rodri injury and Bayer Leverkusen. In total, Inter's away matches have seen just five goals scored, with the Italian champions only scraping past both Sparta Prague and Young Boys.
Part of that is down to Inter's attack, which is good but not great, but it's mainly down to their defence, which is up there with the best in Europe.
They have conceded chances equating to 9.2 expected goals (0.92 per game) in the Champions League, so while you may say 'well that means they are fortunate to have only conceded twice then', and you'd be somewhat right, further context is needed.
When diving a little deeper, Inter's xGA total has come from 132 shots, which for context is nearly the same as Celtic (138) managed in their 10 UCL games, and doing a quick division, we can work out that Inter are conceding shots with an average xGA of 0.07.
That tells us that on average, every shot Inter have faced up to this point has had a 7% chance of being scored, and that is comfortably the lowest of any team in the competition. Arsenal and Aston Villa come next at 0.09, PSG at 0.10.
Bayern Munich have an xGA per shot of 0.13 which means that on average, a scoring chance conceded by the Bavarians is nearly twice as likely to be scored as one faced by the Italians.
That's enough nerdiness for one day, but the bottom line is that Inter do a great job at limiting their opponents to low-probability shots, which is why they concede so few goals.
At the other end of the field Bayern are vulnerable defensively given their absentees but Inter's chances to cause problems and create opportunities will be few and far between, so Under 2.5 goals looks the way in.
I also think we should have a go on NO FIRST GOALSCORER here too at 10/1, as unlikely as it seems.
Inter played out a goalless draw at Manchester City early in the campaign, while it wasn't long ago since Bayern drew 0-0 against Leverkusen.
Expect a lot of possession for the hosts without many clear-cut chances, while Inter's rare forays forward are likely to be extinguished due to a lack of bodies, so in my mind the 0-0 is a real runner, though it is worth saying that by backing 'no first scorer' we would still get a winner if the only goal of the game is an own goal.
Team news
Bayern Munich were dealt a blow last week with Jamal Musiala suffering an injury that will leave him out for both legs of this tie at the very least. His absence could mean Thomas Muller is given the nod to start.
Vincent Kompany will also be without starting left-back Alphonso Davies and centre-back Dayot Upamecano, meaning Raphael Guerreiro and Eric Dier should start in their places. Kingsley Coman is touch and go, while starting goalkeeper Manuel Neuer is unlikely to be involved due to a calf injury.
In positive news for the Bavarians, top scorer Harry Kane should start despite picking up a knock on Friday.
Visitors Inter saw defender Alessandro Bastoni withdrawn at half-time at the weekend, but he is winning his race to be fit for this first leg.
However, Simone Inzaghi will be without Mehdi Taremi, Piotr Zielinski and Denzel Dumfries through injury, while Kristjan Asllani is suspended.
Predicted line-ups
Bayern: Urbig; Laimer, Kim, Dier, Guerreiro; Palhinha, Kimmich; Olise, Muller, Sane; Kane
Inter: Sommer; Acerbi, Bisseck, Bastoni; Darmian, Calhanoglu, Frattesi, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Martinez
Match facts
- This will be the 10th meeting between Bayern Munich and Internazionale in European competition, with the German side winning five of the previous nine (D1 L3), including the last time they faced each other in the UEFA Champions League (2-0 wins home and away in the 2022-23 group stage).
- Internazionale have lost four of their seven games against Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League (W2 D1), but have eliminated them in both of their meetings in the knockout stages of the competition: 2-0 in the 2009-10 final and progressing on away goals over two legs in 2010-11 in the last 16 (3-3 on aggregate).
- Only Real Madrid (seven times) have eliminated Bayern Munich in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League more times than Internazionale (2), with the Italians being one of only five teams to have done so on more than one occasion (also two for Barcelona, Chelsea and Milan).
- Bayern Munich are unbeaten in their last 22 home matches in the UEFA Champions League (W17 D5), with the last visiting side to beat them in the competition being Paris SG in April 2021 (3-2 in the quarter-final first leg).
- Of teams to have played 10+ matches in a single European Cup/UEFA Champions League campaign, Internazionale’s clean sheet percentage (80%) in 2024-25 is the highest of any side in a single season (eight clean sheets in 10 matches).
- Bayern Munich have averaged more high-intensity pressures in the final third per game than any other team in the UEFA Champions League this season (121.8). Indeed, their average of 12.8 high turnovers per game in the competition this term is the highest by any side since Bayern themselves, in the 2021-22 campaign (13.2).
- Harry Kane has now been directly involved in 50 goals in 55 games in the UEFA Champions League (39 goals, 11 assists), including 12 in 11 outings in the competition this term. Only Robert Lewandowski has had a hand in more in a single campaign for Bayern Munich (20 in 2019-20, 16 in 2021-22).
- Lautaro Martínez has netted six goals in nine UEFA Champions League appearances for Internazionale this season; the most by a player for the club in a single campaign since Samuel Eto’o in 2010-11 (8), whose last goal that season came away at Bayern Munich in the round of last 16.
- Bayern Munich’s Joshua Kimmich has completed 1,015 passes in the UEFA Champions League this season; the most by a player in a single edition since 2013-14 (1,080 by Toni Kroos and 1,020 by Xavi). At the same time, he’s also created more chances (35) and made more line-breaking passes (201) than any other midfielder this term.
- Across the last three UEFA Champions League campaigns (since 2022-23), Achraf Hakimi (8) is the only full back/wing back to have assisted more goals than Internazionale’s Federico Dimarco (6). All six of those assists have been for different players (Dzeko, Çalhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Correa, Martínez, Thuram).
Odds correct at 1500 BST (07/04/25)
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