Relegation-battling Barnsley host champions-elect Fulham in the Sky Bet Championship on Saturday. EFL expert Michael Beardmore provides a preview and two best bets.
Football betting tips: Championship
1.5pt Fulham (-1 handicap) to win at 11/8 (General)
0.5pt Fulham to score Over 3.5 Goals at 6/1 (General)
Oakwell is the next stop for the Fulham promotion juggernaut on Saturday lunchtime as they visit a Barnsley side that has enjoyed a mini-revival over the past month.
The Tykes appeared doomed a few weeks back but three wins in their past six games have brought them within five points of safety and evoked memories of their ‘Great Escape’ two seasons ago.
They have beaten promotion hopefuls QPR and Middlesbrough in south Yorkshire during that time but, as the majority of the Sky Bet Championship has found out this term, Fulham are a breed apart.
Sitting 14 points clear at the top of the table and with 35-goal top scorer Aleksandar Mitrovic unrelenting, the Cottagers appear focussed on breaking as many records as possible.
Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Barnsley 6/1 | Draw 7/2 | Fulham 4/9
While Barnsley have undoubtedly improved over the past six games, they have failed to record more than 1.0 xGF (Expected Goals For) in any of those matches, suggesting their revival is unsustainable.
The 3-2 win over Boro (xG: 0.79-2.80) was a case in point and anything approaching a repeat of that against an incredibly clinical and classy Fulham side, outperforming their season xG of 76.2 by almost 13 goals (89), could get messy.
The Cottagers are, quite simply, second-tier goal machines and while they are unbackably short in a host of win and goalscorer markets as a result, there is definitely value to be found if you hunt hard enough.
Unibet offer 8/5 on Fulham to win to nil and I wouldn’t put you off but a combination of Barnsley’s recent renaissance and the Cottagers’ habit of often conceding when they win (23 victories but clean sheets in only 12 of them) gives pause for thought.
I prefer instead the 11/8 generally on offer for FULHAM TO WIN (-1 HANDICAP) – it’s a bet Marco Silva’s free-scoring side would have covered in 17 of their 35 games this season.
Just a look at each side’s respective xG per game figures – Fulham xGF 2.18, xGA 0.86 and Barnsley 0.84 xGF, 1.70 xGA – suggests the visitors should win this one with plenty in reserve.
You can back Fulham -2 at 18/5 and -3 at 9/1 as well if you prefer larger odds – but if you’re of that sort of persuasion I think the best value comes in the form of FULHAM TO SCORE OVER 3.5 GOALS at 6/1 with several firms.
The leaders have bagged four goals or more in 10 of their 35 games this season but, tellingly, they seem to be more goal-happy away from home, hitting four or more in six of 16 away trips (37.5% of their travels).
That’s a pretty good ratio for a 6/1 bet and while Barnsley’s defensive record isn’t as disastrous as some sides in the bottom half, their desperation for points means they will have to take risks if Fulham, as expected, go ahead.
Barnsley v Fulham score prediction and best bets
- Fulham (-1 handicap) to win at 11/8 (General)
- Fulham to score over 3.5 goals at 6/1 (General)
Score prediction: Barnsley 1-4 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 20/1)
Odds correct 1800 GMT (10/03/22)
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