There is something about Aston Villa that just doesn’t capture the imagination.
- Published before Villa 4-2 Forest
Save for a single week of media attention following back-to-back December victories over Arsenal and Manchester City discussion of Villa’s remarkable campaign and the intricacies within it have been strangely ignored, certainly by comparison to clubs floating around the same position.
Tottenham Hotspur have regularly been touted as outsiders for the title and coverage of their debut campaign under Ange Postecoglou has been non-stop, and while it’s understandable that Manchester United would garner more attention than Villa it’s surprising that neutrals are more excited by stories at Brighton and Newcastle.
Excited is the right word. Villa’s problem is they aren’t sexy. There’s no glittery superstar-in-the-making equivalent to Alexander Isak or Kaoru Mitoma; no adventurous idealism from the touchline as at Tottenham; no furious cycle of hope and decay as at Man Utd.
Premier League top four (odds via Sky Bet)
- Tottenham - 1/1
- Aston Villa - 5/4
- Manchester Utd - 9/2
Odds correct at 12:30 GMT (22/02/24)
Flying under the radar
In fact, there’s no story at all, beyond a brutally hard-working manager perfectly enacting battle-plans with likeable-but-dull players listening to his every word.
It means Unai Emery’s quiet efficiency flies under the radar and it means neutrals are quick to assume a fall is coming. Fewer column inches and less air time translates into the broad assumption that Villa defeats precipitate a drift back into the obscure middle space, while Villa’s achievements – especially when against the odds - are often missed.
All of which is to say nobody seemed to notice that during Aston Villa’s difficult run across January and early February, when they won eight points from seven Premier League games, Emery was forced to play his fourth- and fifth-choice centre-backs. That feels pretty important, and yet analysis would rarely go beyond the casual shrug that said Villa were running out of energy and regressing to the mean.
Man Utd’s four-game winning streak has cemented the narrative that Villa will soon fall behind United in the race for the fifth Champions League spot, and understandably so in a world where pundits are drawn to stories that catch the eye.
Fair enough, the partnership forming between Marcus Rashford, Rasmus Hojlund, and Alejandro Garnacho is considerably more exciting than the meticulous tactical structure of Emery’s Villa. It’s certainly a lot more interesting to watch on highlights packages, in fits and bursts.
Torres resolving crisis
Villa are not just a better team than Man Utd – better coached, more consistent – they should also be considered favourites to finish above Tottenham in fourth, where they currently reside, for one simple reason: their centre-back crisis is finally ending.
Pau Torres got injured at exactly the moment Villa’s dip in form began and his recovery coincided exactly with Villa’s return to form in a 2-1 win at Fulham last weekend. The data is stark: in 2023/24 Villa have won 41 points from 17 Premier League games Torres has started (2.4 points per game) and eight points from the eight he has not (1.0 points per game).
It isn’t his defensive work that Villa have missed, rather his unique capacity to enact Emery’s intricate passing networks from the back. Emery relies upon baiting the press, with high-risk passing deliberately luring opponents forward so Villa can then quickly shift momentum and surge forward in straight lines as if on the counter-attack.
It’s the bedrock of everything Villa do, and yet without the right centre-backs to cut lines the entire system falls down.
That’s why Torres is the most important player in the Villa squad. According to FBRef, among centre-backs in Europe’s top five leagues he ranks in the 92nd percentile for progressive passes (5.39 per 90) and 98th percentile for progressive carries (1.89 per 90), reflecting that unusual capacity to be proactive.
His return to action at Fulham was the perfect example. Torres had more touches (84) and completed more passes (58) than any other player on the pitch, while his passing covered more ‘progressive distance’ (480 yards) than any other Villa player, according to Opta.
That forward momentum played a vital hand in the winning goal. Torres changed the tempo of a long Villa passing sequence by striding past a player, drawing a midfielder towards him, and passing to Luiz, in the process entirely disrupting Fulham’s 4-4-2 shape. From here, three simple vertical passes were all it took to cut Fulham open and put Ollie Watkins through on goal to score.
It was pure Emery, and the surest sign– but by no means the only one - that Villa’s slump is over.
Returning stars will be key
John McGinn was excellent in a deeper role, suggesting Villa will cope without Boubacar Kamara, while Jacob Ramsey and Alex Moreno interacted well on the left. That’s another thing nobody seems to have noticed: Villa have missed their entire left flank in 2023/24.
Now Ramsey and Moreno are back from injury Emery’s side should be better than ever.
Man Utd are playing at their absolute peak, from which they will inevitably fall at least slightly, while Villa are just recovering from their lowest ebb, and yet with 13 games to go Villa still hold a five point advantage over Ten Hag’s side. Villa, then, should be very firm favourites to finish above United.
Tellingly, that isn’t how it feels to most onlookers, but then few seem to have noticed Villa’s injury crisis – or that it is finally beginning to clear up.
They are not the league’s entertainers. There is no comeback story here, no great yearning, nothing juicy. But Aston Villa are the fourth or fifth best team in the country. Come May, the league table will show it.
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