- Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game.
Men in the middle
- Manchester City vs Chelsea
- Sky Sports Main Event: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
- Home 3/10 | Draw 9/2 | Away 15/2
There wasn’t too much to celebrate about a 3-1 victory over Crystal Palace on Monday night during which Chelsea were hopelessly slow and hesitant in possession, an affliction that is worsening as the weeks go by.
For most of the season Chelsea have been absorbing Mauricio Pochettino’s methods and performing well between the two boxes, only for defensive errors and profligate finishing – both the result of having a young squad getting to know each other – to let them down.
Increasingly, however, poor results have translated into low-confidence displays, and nobody embodies this more than Moises Caicedo: the shrinking, risk-averse midfielder forever going sideways or backwards, not so much pulling the strings as tentatively plucking at them.
Manchester City should swarm and overwhelm the visitors. Chelsea’s main source of attack these days is to funnel the ball into the wingers just after the ball is turned over, but Pep Guardiola’s team simply don’t give up chances like that. The only way to break against them is to hit longer balls from a deep position, something Pochettino’s team rarely do.
Then again, Chelsea always look better against stronger sides because Pochettino’s urgent and vertical football is awakened by opponents who press high and leave spaces in behind. A repeat of the 4-4 at Stamford Bridge is not out of the question, although for that to happen Chelsea will need to counter-press significantly better than they have done in recent weeks.
The most important match-up, therefore, is between Rodri and Conor Gallagher, whose boundless energy at the tip of midfield leads the charge for Chelsea’s off-the-ball play.
His brace at Selhurst Park will only ramp up a tenacity Chelsea desperately need to jump on top of Rodri and prevent the City six from controlling the game, evading the press, and setting Kevin de Buyne away.
Rodri is the linchpin of the team, and never is he more important than against hard-pressing midfields, when his capacity to release the ball under pressure keeps Man City in control. But if Gallagher can set a tone that his team-mates can follow, then Chelsea may be able to pinch the ball high up the pitch and move into the area in Pochettino straight lines.
But if Chelsea are as sheepish as they were at Palace – if Gallagher is told to sit in, and fails to get close to Rodri – then Man City will move effortlessly through the gears and comfortably win.
Battle in the air
- Brentford vs Liverpool
- TNT Sports 1: Saturday, 12:30 GMT
- Home 17/4 | Draw 10/3 | Away 4/7
Arsenal, with their renewed set-piece threat and post-Dubai break energy, should very easily win at Burnley on Saturday afternoon, which means Liverpool cannot afford to drop points in what is a deceptively difficult away tip to kick off the weekend.
Brentford were leading Man City 1-0 until the final minute of the first half a fortnight ago, and had they held on until the break it felt likely Thomas Frank’s side would have taken points. They will deploy the same model – a stubborn, low-block 3-5-2 – for the visit of a Liverpool side whose chaotic nature (relative to Man City) makes them vulnerable.
Frank’s formation is perfect for stopping the elite teams. Using a back five means the aggressive wing-backs can step onto the wingers with a wide centre-back helping double up when needed; a three-man midfield goes man-to-man with their opponents; and the front two latch onto long balls to fight their way into the final third.
Liverpool should be slowed down by the depth of Brentford’s defensive line, and that extra defender at the back means the hosts will likely have the numbers to stop Jurgen Klopp’s side from overloading the wide areas, as they tend to do.
But if Liverpool can control Ivan Toney and Neal Maupay they will have the platform to stay calm, keep attacking in waves, and eventually get the breakthrough.
Nobody has lost more points from winning positions than Brentford this season and Liverpool have a knack for scoring late goals.
Toney will look to occupy Ibrahima Konate, because Virgil van Dijk is better in the air than his team-mate and slower in the recovery, meaning Maupay can run off the back of Van Dijk. The tactical strategy here – long balls up to the target man, then pick up the second ball – is disarmingly simple, as we saw for their opener against Man City a fortnight ago.
Unlike Man City, Liverpool don’t have a strong number six to recover the high balls that drop. Brentford’s direct approach will stretch the pitch, and when that happens Alexis Mac Allister’s limitations as a defensive midfielder are exposed. Consequently, if Toney gets the upper hand in his battle with Konate, Vitaly Janelt and Mathiass Jensen will back themselves to grab possession between the lines, ready to feed Maupay.
We all know that Liverpool’s high line is easily broken by powerful and direct counter-attackers. Brentford, with Toney back, are arguably the best in the Premier League at exposing the flaws in Klopp’s system.
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (15/02/24)
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