Cricket tipster Richard Mann previews the final day of the second Test between England and India at Edgbaston.
Day five betting update
1pt England and India to draw at 5/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Greatness is a word used far too liberally in sport. In cricket, it reaches its peak.
Far too often we use the word, and if you believed everything to have come out of the current England camp in the last few years, I dare say you’d believe most in that side had already touched greatness. They have not.
What defines greatness? Numbers, sure, and the ability to produce those match-winning performances on the biggest stage.
But what about overcoming adversity? Adapting to the situation. Changing your entire approach and game for the needs of your team. I’d say that’s pretty important.
I’m brought back to the Old Trafford Test of that famous 2005 Ashes when Australia needed to bat out the final day to secure a draw. This wasn’t the Australian way, not for that great side anyway.
But captain Ricky Ponting was willing to put his ego aside, curb those natural aggressive instincts of his and prepare to be carried out on his shield if it meant avoiding defeat.
And that’s just what Ponting did as he batted right up until the dying embers of the day to secure his side a priceless draw.
It was a remarkable innings, but perhaps even more remarkable was AB de Villiers’ famous rearguard in Adelaide in 2012 as South Africa secured an unlikely draw which would in the end pave the way for series victory.
De Villiers is widely regarded as one of the best limited-overs batsman of all time, in my eyes the greatest, with clear distance to the chasing pack.
But one of things that made de Villiers the Test batsman great was how prepared he was to adapt for the good of the team. For many years he kept wicket when he ought to have been left to plunder big runs as the best player in the world. But he did what was required.
In Adelaide, de Villiers faced 220 balls for a mere 33 runs to keep Australia at bay. There was no ‘this is the way I play’ here, just team first.
So that brings us on to Sunday, victory already out of England’s reach with 536 runs still required and three of the top four, including Joe Root, already back in the shed.
Ollie Pope has played some great innings for England already, chiefly his masterpiece in Hyderabad. Ben Stokes has a trophy cabinet full of them.
To watch Harry Brook and Jamie Smith in the first innings in Birmingham, combining for a breathless partnership of 303, one would have been forgiven for thinking we were watching greatness in the making.
But can they do it another way? Does Brook have the will to keep his bullets in the chamber for the greater good? Does Smith?
And how do Stokes and Pope, captain and vice captain, approach this new challenge? Stokes is sure to face plenty of Ravi Jadeja on day five when his technique against spin will be severely tested. Pope’s too.
But I find it hard to believe this England side, any England side for that matter, isn’t able to bat for three sessions on a pitch as flat as this one at Edgbaston.
And we mustn’t forget, this is still an India bowling attack missing Jasprit Bumrah. Just as in the first innings, once that ball goes soft, it could become very hard work.
The three innings in the match so far have yielded scores of 587, 407 and 427-6 declared. Whichever way you slice it, this is a very good pitch for batting, and not a lot will change on Sunday.
The series is at a critical juncture for both teams. England lead 1-0 but have so far been outplayed in Birmingham, just as they were for large parts of the Test in Leeds despite pulling off a memorable victory. Lose on Sunday, and they are in trouble, with Lord’s next and a refreshed Bumrah sure to be chomping at the bit.
All that won’t be lost on England, who have adopted a more pragmatic approach of late, as evidenced by their calculated run chase in Leeds. Bazball refined if not yet redefined.
I think they can bat out the day, or at the very least produce a sufficient rearguard to see those current draw odds of 5/1 (general) tumble into half the price. One good session in the morning, and we might be looking at sub-2/1 for the draw.
The back to lay of that draw price has to be play from here, so I must advise taking the 5/1 to small stakes.
A remarkable third day at Edgbaston, featuring a partnership of 303 between Jamie Smith (184 not out) and Harry Brook (158), ended with England still 244 runs in arrears as India closed on 64-1.
Though things could have been much worse, England will have been frustrated to have collapsed to 407 all out having at one stage been well placed on 387-5, and the tourists are now trading at around the 4/7 mark to level the series.
The draw, a dirty word in the England camp, is 5/2, and with some weather predicted over the next few days, that might be the play from here.
Psychology plays a huge part in sport and India captain Shubman Gill was on the field when England chased down 378 for the loss of only three wickets on this ground in 2022.
And then only last week, England made relatively short work of a victory target of 371 in Leeds as Ben Duckett held Jasprit Bumrah at bay and feasted on his bowling colleagues.
With those stinging losses fresh in the memory, Gill is sure to want at least 500 runs in the bank before setting England any sort of target, especially with no Bumrah in his XI this week.
India have enough batting and wickets in hand to get to the point where Gill feels relatively safe, but it will likely take them the best part of day four to get there, thus limiting their chance to force victory.
Notwithstanding some rain in the weekend forecast, England would then be left with limited time to tackle their run chase, but that then leaves the question of just how pragmatic the hosts will be if presented with such a situation.
Remember, this England team have always argued they are in the entertainment business, so taking their medicine and settling for a draw on day five won't sit well, and will be alien to a few in their ranks.
There are still a few ways this could go, and a few too many imponderables to persuade me to back the draw, for all Gill and the weather might well have the final say.
Preview published at 2005 BST on 04/07/25
Day three betting update
2pts England over 424.5 first innings runs at 13/8 (Star Sports)
Much of the talk before this series began centred around how bat would dominate ball, two strong batting line-ups, bowling attacks shorn of experienced heads, and some flat pitches in the midst of a scorching English summer.
Seven centuries and a score of 99 in Headingley appeared to conclusively settle that argument, before we have then watched India bat for the best part of two days in Birmingham on their way to a mammoth first innings total of 587. Away captain Shubman Gill helped himself to 269 runs here to add to his hundred in Leeds.
Last night, I was guilty of failing into the trap of expecting another lower order India collapse of the type we saw twice in the first Test, but this pitch is more placid, and as yet, there have been no overheads to encourage the seamers.
There was some new-ball movement for India as they nipped out three England wickets late on the second day, but things had settled down by the time England ended the day on 77-3.
On day three, expect England to go big.
This ball is now 20 overs old, so if England can bat well for the first hour, and much will again depend on Joe Root, they can set themselves a solid platform from which to build.
Root's record in Birmingham is remarkable. He currently averages 72.15 on this ground, with three hundreds and five fifties, and I'm happy with our pre-match position which has him tipped to make another century at 5/1.
And despite enduring a few scares, Harry Brook had moved to 30 not out at the close, suggesting he can continue his strong start to the series.
Throw in Ben Stokes and Jamie Smith, the latter having made runs here against the West Indies last summer, and then Chris Woakes and Brydon Carse, there is clearly a huge amount of batting to come in this England line-up.
And we know that facing a big deficit won't worry them, given they conceded 471 in the first innings in Leeds, before working their way back into that match and eventually going on to win.
And let's not forget, this is an Indian bowling attack that looked distinctly average in Leeds when Jasprit Bumrah, absent here, didn't have the ball in hand.
It could be another long day in the field for the tourists if the likes of Root and Brook can get set. The Yorkshire pair combined for a partnership of 454 in Pakistan only last winter.
With all that in mind, I'm happy to back England to score OVER 424.5 INNINGS RUNS at 13/8 (Star Sports).
Preview published at 2155 BST on 03/07/25
Day two betting update
2pts India under 420 first innings runs at 13/10 (bet365)
1pt Shubman Gill exact method of dismissal LBW at 9/2 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
India will resume their first innings on Thursday morning, apparently well set on 310-5 and with captain Shubman Gill unbeaten on 114.
On what is proving to be a typically placid Edgbaston surface, the tourists will have designs on posting a score in excess of 450, but they had similar ideas in the first Test in Leeds before twice collapsing badly.
In the first innings at Headingley, India slipped from 430-3 to 471 all out, while in the second dig it was 333-4 to 364 all out in less than 15 overs.
Even accounting for the changes in personnel for this game, with strengthening that lower order in mind, the tail still looks pretty brittle, with Washington Sundar due in next at number eight followed by three rabbits, to steal a term from the Yorkshire leagues.
Furthermore, the second new ball is only five overs old, meaning Chris Woakes, Brydon Carse and Josh Tongue will have a hard, shiny pill to bowl with first up, fresh from a good night's sleep and encouraged by their efforts on day one.
Woakes, who finished with 2-59 from his 21 overs, was most impressive, claiming the big wicket of KL Rahul with the first new ball and having three mightily close LBW shouts go against him on the Umpire's Call ruling.
He'll hope for better luck in the morning, as will Carse who thought he had Gill LBW, only for the thinnest of inside edges to save the India captain.
Gill played fabulously for his hundred, but England honed in on his pads all day, trusting the long-running theory that his bat swing coming down from gully and across his front pad makes him especially vulnerable to the delivery that nips back in.
It does, and armed with that new ball, I fancy Woakes to knock him over early doors on a wicket that hasn't offered that much bounce.
Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power are currently 9/2 for Gill's EXACT METHOD OF DISMISSAL TO BE LBW, and I don't mind that at all.
And should Gill indeed fall early, India's lower order could again prove vulnerable.
I'm keen to bet unders from here, and bet365 offer a couple of tempting options, with under 386.5 innings runs available at 3/1, and UNDER 420 INNINGS RUNS on offer at 13/10.
Preview published at 2200 BST on 02/07/25
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