England and India finally resume hostilities at Edgbaston on Friday, and Richard Mann has bets ranging from 33/1 to 5/2 in his staking plan.
Cricket tips: England v India fifth Test
2pts James Anderson top England first-innings bowler at 5/2 (General)
2pts Jasprit Bumrah top India first-innings bowler at 5/2 (General)
1pt Ravindra Jadeja top India first-innings batsman at 16/1 (General)
1pt Ravichandran Ashwin top India first-innings batsman at 33/1 (General)
Test cricket comes thick and fast at present, with India lining up as England’s latest challengers in the concluding Test of last summer’s curtailed series, one which the tourists currently lead 2-1.
Edgbaston, not Old Trafford, will now play host and that ought to suit England, given their liking for this venue over the years, and the fact Manchester’s abrasive, often spin-friendly surface was always expected to play to the strengths of the visitors.
That won’t be the case now and with England coming into Friday’s Test on the back of an exhilarating 3-0 whitewash of current ICC Test champions, New Zealand, producing the type of brazen, aggressive cricket not seen in this format for some time, it’s understandable that Ben Stokes’ side are a shade of odds-on with most bookmakers to win again.
Can undercooked India fire at Edgbaston?
Add to that, there is the very real possibility that India will be underprepared for this one, having not played Test cricket since March. It’s worth remembering, too, that India were well beaten in that ICC Test Championship final at the beginning of last summer’s Tour of England, before improving markedly throughout the series, culminating in a sparkling display at the Oval.
Perhaps more concerning is the fact that KL Rahul – one of the stars of the series so far – isn’t in England this time, while new captain Rohit Sharma is a major doubt having tested positive for Covid-19, and former captain Virat Kohli is currently in the midst of one the leanest spells of his otherwise outstanding career. Shreyas Iyer has made a fine start to his Test career, but he was overlooked in South Africa and I have serious doubts about him against the short ball.
At least many of the top order enjoyed some welcome time in the middle against Leicestershire over the weekend, where a few of the Indian players turned out for the county side in order to give more of the squad a run-out, but the weather forecast for Birmingham isn’t good and that should mean plenty of cloud cover and lots of sideways movement for bowlers on both sides.
By way of caveat, the batch of Dukes balls used in England this summer has been unusually soft and easily knocked out of shape, almost akin to its Kookaburra counterpart, meaning the consistent swing we usually see in England has been absent, and that scoring runs, particularly in the middle order, has been relatively easy on some very good batting pitches.
Edgbaston has tended to be a result ground over the years, offering seam and swing in the early part of the matches, and then spinning later in the game. Runs can be scored here, too, as Steve Smith demonstrated brilliantly when making twin hundreds in 2019, but overhead conditions usually call the shots in Test cricket in England and that could make batting tough in the coming days.
That seems a strange thing to say, given the issues with the Dukes balls in the last few months, and that England have just pulled off three expectational run chases in three consecutive Tests, though an Indian bowling line-up led by Jasprit Bumrah promises to offer a much sterner examination of England’s all-out-attack method.
It’s difficult to be anything but positive about England’s swift upturn in fortunes since Brendon McCullum took over as head coach, and Stokes as captain, but they did ride their luck against New Zealand and were it not for a dropped catch on day two at Headingley, England would've have been bowled out very cheaply in the first innings in Leeds, just as they were at Lord’s.
New Zealand missed countless chances throughout that series, and Trent Boult apart, were poor with the ball once Kyle Jamieson was ruled out through injury. That won’t be the case with this India attack, one which also boasts high-class spin options, and we will learn much more about Stokes’ England here.
That said, with the non-betting cap on for just a moment, it has been so refreshing to see the same group of players that were hamstrung by Covid-19 and the previous leadership now show their true worth, playing with freedom and enjoyment.
England’s Test team is already in a much healthier state for the recent leadership changes, but that doesn’t suddenly make this side bombproof and worth taking odds-on about.
With concerns about India’s readiness for this week, I won’t be advising them either, though I’ll maintain what I said last week about taking big prices in-play and then placing orders on the exchanges to get out. This England side are sure to enjoy more than their fair share of ups and downs, and even at Headingley when New Zealand inexplicably only selected three bowlers, England hit 7.4 at one stage having started the match as overwhelming favourites.
Anderson and Bumrah set to relish conditions
For now, I think there are much better opportunities in the side markets and JAMES ANDERSON heads the staking plan to be England’s top first-innings bowler.
I put up Anderson in Leeds, only for an ankle niggle and England’s desire to take a closer look at Jamie Overton to rule him out, but the Lancashire veteran is reported to be fully fit again and is expected to come straight back into the starting XI on a ground where he has already claimed 45 wickets from 12 Tests, at an average 23.28.
Anderson has enjoyed some fine moments in Birmingham, including two five-wicket hauls, and even when conditions weren’t in his favour for much of the New Zealand series, he still managed 11 wickets at 18.63, proving the best of the England attack once again.
With 133 Test wickets against India already – both home and away – we certainly know Anderson likes this opposition, and he bowled beautifully in the four matches against this team last summer, as he did in the winter tour of India just a few months earlier.
I’d expect Stuart Broad to sit this one out, with Overton and Matthew Potts both doing enough to keep their places in the side, and with overhead conditions expected to be in his favour and the fact he will be fresh following a few days with his feet up, Anderson has plenty going for him and rates a solid bet at 5/2.
Sticking with the bowlers, it’s hard to look past JASPRIT BUMRAH (5/2) for India.
The counter-argument to backing Bumrah is that he finds himself in a strong field with some very real dangers, but that was also the case last summer when his priceless ability to roll over England’s tail with his raw pace and brilliant yorker saw him claim 18 wickets in four matches.
In these conditions, I rate his opening bowling partner, Mohammed Shami, highly, but Bumrah’s killer instinct against the tail makes him a strong favourite in my book. Were the double with Anderson available – and I can’t find a firm willing to take that particular bet – I would be happy to recommend that selection, too.
With Joe Root continuing to dominate, I’m not overly keen to strike a bet in the top England batsman market, but the India one looks well worth a stab at.
Sharma was outstanding on these shores last summer and is a world-class operator in all formats, but as good as he is, I’ve always felt he’s the type of player who gets better as a series progresses.
I think he’s a rhythm player, for all he’s a supreme talent, and it’s worth pointing out that when he was India’s leading runscorer home and away against England in 2021, his highest score was 36 in either of the first Tests. It was 34 in the World Test Championship final against New Zealand, and it was only 29 in the first Test against Sri Lanka in March.
Even if he recovers quickly enough from his positive Covid-19 test to lead India on Friday, I'd want to be against him, so too Kohli who hasn’t made a Test century since November 2019. Despite his excellent form in the County Championship of late, Cheteshwar Pujara isn’t a certain starter, and with doubts about Iyer against the short ball and Rishabh Pant the moving ball, taking big prices lower down the order looks the play.
India pair appeal at longer odds
It seems unlikely that RAVINDRA JADEJA and RAVI ASHWIN will play in the same team on Friday, given conditions shouldn’t demand India select two spinners, but both are very capable batsmen and make appeal at big odds.
Jadeja made runs in the recent warm-up game against Leicestershire and batted as high as number five here last year, so this experienced operator who already has a Test hundred against England to his name looks overpriced at 16/1. For good measure, Jadeja made a magnificent 175 not out against Sri Lanka on his penultimate Test appearance.
The theory is that even if the Dukes ball doesn’t offer the same assistance to the seamers that we are used to seeing in these conditions, it still caused England and New Zealand’s top order plenty of problems in their recent series, and the success Jonny Bairstow and Daryl Mitchell enjoyed would suggest the middle order is the place to be.
That also brings Ashwin into calculations at 33/1, given he has made five Test centuries in his career, and 12 fifties, and that he very nearly won this market in South Africa earlier this year when a typically counterattacking 46 in Johannesburg saw him fall only four runs short of the target.
He is a handy lower-order batsman, and with so many doubts about those above him, both he and Jadeja are worth chancing with stakes returned if either – more likely Ashwin – doesn’t make the final XI for India.
We should learn more about the new and improved England this week, but it’s in the side markets where the best betting opportunities appear, with two world-class seamers and two lower-order hustlers making up a chunky staking plan.
Published at 1340 BST on 29/06/22
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