Get the latest in-play betting advice from Richard Mann ahead of the final day of the second Ashes Test at Lord's.
Australia are closing in on a 2-0 lead in the Ashes following another absorbing day of Test cricket at Lord’s.
England fought back admirably with the ball in the first two sessions, picking up eight Australian wickets exclusively to short-pitched bowling to leave the hosts facing a run chase of 371 in the fourth innings.
However, impressive new-ball bursts from Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins reduced the home side to 45-4 as any hopes of another memorable England run chase were soon quashed.
An unbroken partnership of 69 between Ben Duckett, who passed fifty for the second time in the match, and Ben Stokes then followed to ensure England will start the final day with six wickets intact, but still some 257 runs from victory.
Australia are 1/7 with Sky Bet to finish the job on Sunday, with those taking 11/2 about England putting their faith in Stokes to repeat his Headingley heroics in the Ashes four years ago.
With only Jonny Bairstow of the recognised batsmen to come, England really are at the last chance saloon bar.
Day three betting update
2pts Usman Khawaja under 90.5 second innings runs at 10/11 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
Australia turned the screw on the third day at Lord's, helped by some indifferent batting from England which eventually saw the hosts dismissed for 325 having found themselves cruising on 188-1 only a day earlier.
Australia again made good use of the short ball, with Mitchell Starc's extra pace showing England just what they have been missing as Mark Wood battles to prove his fitness and Jofra Archer ponders yet another long stint out of the game.
The general consensus on Thursday was that England erred too far on the side of aggression when Australia first employed the short-ball tactic. 24 hours later and Bazball is now under attack as the Ashes threatens to slip away from Ben Stokes' grasp.
My personal take is that England's game management, with the injured Nathan Lyon ruled out of the match, was poor. This was the one time when taking some medicine, wearing a few blows, ducking and weaving, had to be the play. Without encouragement, Australia would have soon abandoned such back-breaking work and England could then have stepped on the gas with no swing or seam movement present on Thursday.
But there is a fine line between positivity and taking aggression too far. Shot selection is so important, and I thought Ollie Pope's shot choice for his dismissal on Thursday was wrong. But if he middles that hook shot, it disappears into the stands and we all love Bazball, don't we? England fans, including me, can't have their cake and eat it, and that fine line isn't always easy to tread.
England played this way last summer when hammering New Zealand, India and South Africa. Social Media might say 'they were smarter last summer' but they weren't. It's just that when Trent Boult was taken out of the New Zealand attack, the rest were cannon fodder bowling on flat pitches and with a bad batch of unresponsive Dukes balls. It was the just the same with Jasprit Bumrah and India. South Africa's stronger pace attack proved a much more consistent threat to England, but their own batting was so weak that it didn't matter.
This summer was the acid test, and England are coming up short. We can pick holes in England's approach, with Bazball, with selection – which has been a weak spot for this leadership group not highlighted until now – but when the dust settles on the second Test, one England will either lose or manage to draw, it will be because they have been outskilled and outfought by a very fine Australia side.
England's batting remains vulnerable to high-class fast bowlers and this Australia team have a pack of them, not one or two like New Zealand or India relied on, and their own bowling is missing two of the fastest bowlers in world cricket through injury.
As such, Australia's experienced top four have been able to pick apart England's attack over eight days of hard, Test cricket – sitting on James Anderson, lining up his swing early and leaving as much as possible, instead looking to score off the more generous Ollie Robinson and Stuart Broad who have posed more of a threat but have gone for runs. Anderson will be 41 next month, Broad is now 37. Robinson doesn't look fit and there is no spinner.
Things could get ugly from here if something doesn't change soon, but I'd give credit to all three of those seamers, and Josh Tongue, who worked tirelessly on Friday having been afforded very little rest between innings. Anderson might well be nearing the end, but he had no luck again as Khawaja played and missed all afternoon. The left hander was then fortunate when Anderson himself failed to get a hand on what should have been a simple take at midwicket – Tongue the unfortunate bowler this time.
With a little good fortune, England could have picked up more wickets on Friday – they certainly deserved more – but would it have been enough to bring them back into the game? I don't think so. The best team are making the running now and the main obstacles to Australia's march to victory will be that injury to Lyon and just how late Cummins wants to leave a possible declaration.
With no frontline spinner, the third Test starting on Thursday in Leeds and England's recent history of chasing down big scores, I doubt think Australia's captain will be dangling any carrots, not while he can nurse a 1-0 lead.
So far in his captaincy, Cummins has erred on the conservative side and if they can, I reckon he'll be happy to watch Australia bat the duration of Saturday and put England out of the game, before even thinking about having a bowl. Some predators prefer the slow kill and Australia might believe they can finish off Anderson and Broad here.
As such, I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that this match ends in a draw, which is currently trading at 11/2 with Sky Bet. Such an outcome wouldn't be very Bazball, but if Cummins sets England 500 in a day, does even Stokes believe his batting line-up can chase that down in something like 90 overs against this pace attack?
I would need convincing of that, and of more concern to draw backers would be the prospect of England needing to bat for a day playing a style of cricket which is the complete opposite to what they have become accustomed. Whichever way you slice it, England are in a hole and Cummins and co are starting down at them.
Nevertheless, I think England can take Khawaja with them on Saturday morning. As well as Australia's opener has played in this series, he has been handed a number of lives by England's poor catching, while Anderson could have dismissed him any number of times with the new ball in this innings.
While he has left the ball brilliantly, he's had plenty of good fortune that is sure to run out at some stage. Taking Smith in the in-play top Australia market at 3/1 is a definite option, but 10/11 for KHAWAJA TO SCORE UNDER 90.5 RUNS with Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power is the way I'm leaning.
Day two betting update
0.5pts Joe Root top England second innings bowler at 8/1 (Sky Bet)
Lord’s is such a good place to bat when the sun shines, and England were beneficiaries of a change in the weather when mounting a strong fightback on the second day of the second Ashes Test on Thursday.
The seamers kicked things off by picking up 5-76, Australia somewhat missing a trick despite Steve Smith’s 32nd Test century taking the tourists to 416 in conditions still helpful to the seamers.
By the time England reached 278-4 at the close of play, Lord’s was beaming in the June summer sun and the hosts had wrestled back favouritism, Sky Bet going even-money about Ben Stokes’ side, with Australia at 7/4.
Factored into those odds is a calf injury to Australia off spinner Nathan Lyon, which threatens to rule him out of the match and beyond, and at the very least, it’s highly unlikely he will bowl again in the first innings.
Nevertheless, while we must give England credit for turning in a much better showing after a disastrous first day, Australia themselves rallied manfully after Lyon’s injury, picking up three wickets with a sustained short-ball barrage to peg England back from 188-1. Ben Duckett fell two runs short of what would have been a maiden Ashes hundred, while there were promising support acts from Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope.
Pope’s hook to deep square leg set the ball rolling and I don’t think it was smart game management with Lyon off the field and Australia seemingly playing their last hand. But the fact Duckett and Root fell in identical fashion soon after – the latter having earlier enjoyed a reprieve off a Cameron Green no-ball – reaffirms that Pope was merely following the brief laid out by England’s management.
Harry Brook rode his luck for his 45 not out and will be hoping to go big in the morning, but Stokes was much more measured and if he can get himself set again, he ought to at least give readers of the pre-match preview a run for our money in the top England batsman market.
In fact, if the sun continues to shine, there is no reason why England can’t go past Australia’s score, particularly if Lyon is again absent. I’ve talked all week about how Lord’s generally gets better for batting and Ireland showed that in the Test match here last month.
I’ll be very keen to see the overhead conditions in the morning, but clear skies would make the 9/4 available with Sky Bet for England to score 500+ runs in the first innings of interest. Without Lyon, this Australia attack could easily get stretched if Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood continue to leak runs as badly as they did on Thursday afternoon.
When England’s turn to bowl comes round again they, too, could be in for plenty of hard toil, and it will be interesting to see how veterans James Anderson and Stuart Broad hold up after doing plenty of bowling in the first innings and in the first Test at Edgbaston.
Ollie Robinson’s knack of picking up wickets – and he burgled the last two to finish with 3-100 in the first innings – means he is the obvious option in the top England bowler market at 3/1, but Root might have plenty of bowling to do here with no other spinner at England’s disposal.
Root claimed two key wickets in the first innings and with plenty of left-handers to go at, the Yorkshireman ought to play a big role in the second innings if the pitch continues to flatten out and the seamers find it tough going in less favourable conditions than they enjoyed first time around.
I’ve certainly seen worse 8/1 shots and advise a small interest on Root at the odds.
Two late wickets for Joe Root were not enough to mask a desperately poor performance from England on day one of the second Ashes Test at Lord’s, the worst I’ve seen from an England team in some time – even in the latter stages of Joe Root’s captaincy.
Having won the Toss under gloomy London skies, with the lights on and a very green pitch to work with, England turned in a ragged, ill-disciplined display in the field which allowed Australia to motor to 339-5 at the close of the play.
It's worth pointing out that the runs line at the start of Australia's innings was 275, and had Travis Head and Cameron Green not gifted Root two wickets in the same over late in the day, their current position of dominance would be even greater.
England dropped two catches in an insipid first session to sum up a generally laboured effort in the field, but it is the bowlers who were ultimately culpable on the day, generally failing to maintain any semblance of control as they bowled on both sides of the wicket throughout.
Josh Tongue was one positive, bowling with pace and producing two brilliant deliveries to clean bowl Usman Khawaja and David Warner, but he still leaked 4.88 runs per over, Stuart Broad 4.00 and Ollie Robinson 4.09.
Typically, James Anderson was the most disciplined off the attack, sending down 15 overs for the cost of only 29 runs, but he rarely threatened, with the considerable swing he found generally coming from the hand and making it easy for the Australians to line him up early and leave with confidence.
Robinson was particularly disappointing, more often than not struggling to breach 80mph, yet still proving unable to string good balls together to build any pressure. The snorter he sent down to dismiss Marnus Labuschagne demonstrated his capabilities, but it’s what comes in-between which should frustrate Stokes and head coach Brendon McCullum.
For the first time in his tenure, McCullum has a few questions to answer, too. His brand of Bazball cricket has transformed this England team, but if this carefree approach leads to sloppy fielding, poor bowling and bad game management, England won’t be winning the Ashes – regardless of how much it empowers the batsmen.
At the top of the piece, I suggested day one was one of the worst displays I’ve seen from an England side in the field. There may have been worse performances, but when you put things into context, England having been handed the huge advantage of winning the Toss and bowling in favourable conditions, in an Ashes Test at Lord’s with the series on the line, this really was dreadful.
The most frustrating aspect of the day was the amount of no-balls England’s seamers sent down, 12 in all. That followed the 23 they delivered in the first Test at Edgbaston.
While I have some sympathy for Stokes who clearly isn’t fit, I cannot understand why Robinson – who sent down six more in the day to follow the four times overstepped in Birmingham – still hasn’t ironed this out. This isn't Brett Lee steaming in from behind the sight screen and there can be no excuse for repeat offences.
After Pat Cummins bowled 10 no-balls in the World Test Championship final against India at the Oval, it was considered to be an area of concern for Australia and their Ashes hopes. Within only a matter of days, Cummins bowled brilliantly in the Ashes opener, particularly in the second innings. Cummins bowled no no-balls in the match.
Cummins had gone away in the short time he had between matches, while also juggling captaincy commitments and a Bruce Springsteen concert, worked on the issue in practice and ensured his run-up was spot on for Birmingham.
What has Robinson been doing in the eight days since the first Test finished? If he and England’s coaching staff have been working hard on his run-up in that time, they might need to consider joining the queue at the job centre.
What this all means is that Australia are now in pole position to take a 2-0 lead in the series. There is still plenty of cricket to be played at Lord’s, but the weather forecast for Thursday isn’t great and England could well find themselves bating in tough conditions that Australia’s bowlers are sure to exploit.
If England have to bat for a fair amount of time on Thursday, I’d have no problem playing under 250 on innings runs. This pitch will get better for batting – and the forecast for Friday onwards is better – but Cummins and co could have done plenty of damage by then.
We’ve already got Stokes in the staking plan and as Steve Smith and Travis Head showed on day one, the middle order look to have things a bit easier here than the openers.
If England start their innings in really bad conditions, throwing a few quid on Robinson and Broad in the top batsman market at 100/1 respectively might not be a bad idea, either.
Robinson can hold a bat and played well in both innings at Edgbaston, while the dangerous Broad top scored in England’s second innings against South Africa at Lord’s last summer.
The ideal scenario for this strategy would be if England are tasked with batting a session or so under cloudy skies on Thursday, hoping for a top-order implosion before the lower order has things easier on Friday.
England’s top batsman market will remain live in Australia’s batting innings, so as ever in this country, keep a close eye on the weather and how the wicket is playing. If a perfect storm appears to be coming – excuse the pun – I suspect I’ll place small wagers on Robinson and Broad to supplement the bet already riding on Stokes.
Whatever happens with the weather, what we can be sure of is that England are very much up against it if they want to realistically keep their Ashes hopes alive.
Bazball? It looked more like a burst ball on day one at Lord’s.
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